ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I cannot believe what my ears are hearing from the Channel 35 TV Met here in Orlando this morning. He keeps saying how much stock he is putting on the GFDL run with Isaac, that the GFDL has proven to be right with past storms that affect FL. He thinks that the models will keep trending east along with the GFDL away from FL.
If somebody knows him, please tell him how badly the GFDL has been doing this year past its 3-4 day forecast, that if the GFDL would had been that good, the central gulf coast would had gotten hit by Hurricane Ernesto a few weeks ago.

[SeminoleWind]

Some really cold cloud tops starting to emerge.

[jlauderdal]

I cannot believe what my ears are hearing from the Channel 35 TV Met here in Orlando this morning. He keeps saying how much stock he is putting on the GFDL run with Isaac, that the GFDL has proven to be right with past storms that affect FL. He thinks that the models will keep trending east along with the GFDL away from FL.
If somebody knows him, please tell him how badly the GFDL has been doing this year past its 3-4 day forecast, that if the GFDL would had been that good, the central gulf coast would had gotten hit by Hurricane Ernesto a few weeks ago.

i did a post earlier this morning to be very cautious when listening to local media, be sure you know the the trust worthy sources and keep your filter on high if you are going to watch tv, national media you need to increase the filter even more..we should really start a thread about things we hear because it would be rather interesting

[cycloneye]

You can visit the Caribbean Weather thread where a bunch of web cams and radars from the islands are posted so you can see what is going on. Some work and others dont.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[wxman57]

Isaac's strongest convection is south of the center. The center appears to be on the northern edge of the convection, indicating it's still experiencing some NE-ENE shear.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

[adam0983]

Does anyone know how large the windfield with Tropical Storm Issac can be? If Issac becomes a Hurricane it can have one of the largest windfields in recent memory.

[Jevo]

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

[JPmia]

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

Did he say when he expects the watches and warnings? (though, we should refer to NHC for official to be most accurate)

[wxsouth]

Isaac's strongest convection is south of the center. The center appears to be on the northern edge of the convection, indicating it's still experiencing some NE-ENE shear.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

Satellite appearance and low-level structure is strikingly similar to Ernesto over the eastern Carib. Incredibly deep convection and very disorganized low-level wind field.

[wxwatcher1999]

Isaac's strongest convection is south of the center. The center appears to be on the northern edge of the convection, indicating it's still experiencing some NE-ENE shear.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

Satellite appearance and low-level structure is strikingly similar to Ernesto over the eastern Carib. Incredibly deep convection and very disorganized low-level wind field.

Is it possible Isaac will have a hard time getting to hurricane strength?

[KBBOCA]

Disclaimer: I'm an amateur. Don't rely on anything I write but always follow the official NHC info!

Jevo thanks for posting that. Brian Norcross is usually pretty solid in his information and his reasoning. I think he is right that even with a SW FL landfall, given the size of the storm, SE FL would still be seriously impacted. With a storm potentially this big, we need to be careful not to focus too much on the exact landfall and look more at the "swath of potential impact."

And no, I'm not -removed-. I'm not even in Boca anymore these days, having moved overseas, but still have close friends in SE FL, so I'm paying attention!

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

[Javlin]

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

sounds like a FL Striat track?

[Jevo]

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

The host tried to hammer him down on a day. He stated that there are many factors in play that will dictate the timing, but if he had to make an educated guess he would say Sunday/Monday

[SouthDadeFish]

A recent Windsat pass shows there is some organization, but the center is mostly on the edge of a curved band:



A lot of ice to the SW of the center...

[jlauderdal]

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

sounds like a FL Striat track?

sounds like he looked at the 5 am track and then hit the snooze button..ha

[Sanibel]

Good, NHC overestimated strength again. The dry air/shear inhibition is still in effect. Now we have to worry about Florida Straits rapid intensification. Cuba serves as Florida's hurricane speed brake once again. Looks like I'll have to rush back to Florida.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Good, NHC overestimated strength again. The dry air/shear inhibition is still in effect. Now we have to worry about Florida Straits rapid intensification. Cuba serves as Florida's hurricane speed brake once again. Looks like I'll have to rush back to Florida.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not so sure it's because of dry air, but the circulation centers are not vertically aligned either. That is another reason the system is not strengthening. Recon data showed a mess of a storm. Very different from conventional satellite imagery.

[adam0983]

No one can predict intensity. All we can do is predict the track. Remember Hurricane Charley was catergory 2 and became a catergory 4 in 2 hours.

[KBBOCA]

Question: If the current NHC track were to verify and the storm hit the southern tip or southeastern tip of FL and then tracked NW across the southern peninsula to Tampa, what could the effects be of a strike on Tampa coming from that direction?

I've seen all the nightmare models of a strike on Tampa coming from the Gulf (SLOSH model...). Presumably a hit from the S or SE would be less bad as Tampa would be on the weaker side of the storm?

Obviously all eyes will be on Tampa for the RNC next week, so I'm just wondering about what could be an unusual angle of impact for Tampa...

Those of us in PBC during Wilma know all too well that a storm hitting the "other side" of the state can still do terrible damage in crossing the peninsula... - Heck even Orlando got whammed by Charley! Florida's flat marshy landmass does not do a lot to impede hurricanes!

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It will be a sheared system for a bit longer, according to the NHC, so no big surprise so far. At this point I think it's all a matter of how strong. If it can strengthen then the track MAY be more like the current GFS, otherwise a more west track, like the euro, MIGHT be expected.