ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS analysis shows Isaac is still experiencing about 15 knots of northerly shear, which explains a lot:

[Gustywind]

WEATHER

Orange cyclone vigilance for the storm Isaac

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php

6AM, the center was located about 450 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe. Depression is now classified as tropical storm. The storm tropical Isaac will cross the Caribbean arc at the level of the Guadeloupe, Wednesday evening, or even in the evening.
First stormy showers continued in Wednesday. They intensify and become more sustainable in the night of Wednesday to Thursday and Thursday day. Accumulations of rainfall may exceed 100 mm / 24 hours at many points, as well Wednesday as Thursday.
On Wednesday, the wind blows moderately northeast to North but temporarily boosts the passage of the squalls. The wind became more sustained after the passage of the storm center on the night of Wednesday to Thursday. He then swung South-South-East and breath between around 60 km/h of average with gusts in the order of 80-100 km/h.
The sea is widening gradually tomorrow during the day. Average lows are around 2 m 50 Wednesday evening, then 3 m 3 m 50 Thursday morning with maximum 6 m waves in a swell northeast then East. Cross-swell phenomena then make the chaotic sea. In Caribbean, hollow of 2 m are expected Thursday in a main Southeast swell.
Heavy rains expected may cause disturbances: flooding, overflow of streams and gullies, and to make difficult traffic conditions.

[Sanibel]

Just wanted to add not to project continued disorganization for future behavior. While 2012 is showing a characteristic of bad structure and alignment peak season can sort that out at any time and change the trend overnight. Keep in mind this is the first one to recurve and it might act differently from having a different 'face' to conditions and forcing dynamics.

[wxwatcher1999]

If I remember right joe cantore mentioned something about a possibility of Isaac maybe getting as far west as shooting through the yucatan channel without any land interaction

[Jevo]

Listening to Brian Norcross on WZZR in Palm Beach right now on iheart internet radio (love technology) saying that he thinks there will be a significant impact in South East Florida whether there is a direct landfall or not because he believe that the storm will make initial CONUS landfall in the upper Keys into Extreme SW Florida putting the dirty side of the storm on South East Florida. He expects watches and warnings for most of the Southern peninsula. He’s calling for a strong Cat 1 to a weak Cat 2 on initial impact.

sounds like a FL Striat track?

sounds like he looked at the 5 am track and then hit the snooze button..ha

Hahahah Didn't we all

As most know, any storm tracking across Extreme South Florida really does nothing to weaken the storm, I believe Katrina actually strengthened as she crossed the Everglades... That swamp water is hot

[Blown Away]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



IF Isaac approaches SFL according to the NHC (BLACK TRACK), a slight change in the angle (RED TRACK) allows Isaac more time over warm waters and may allow Isaac to become a very significant storm affecting major SFL metropolitan areas and Lake Okeechobee.

This is just my thoughts only!

[wxman57]

I notice that the 12Z guidance shifted back westward, with the majority of the better models tracking Isaac toward the SW peninsula. I'd say somewhere between Apalachicola and Cape Hatteras is most likely. Can't tell for sure if Isaac will track west of, over, or east of the Peninsula.

Some things we are confident in:
Timing of arrival in the FL Straits (north of Cuba) Sunday evening
If it does strike south Florida, then the timing is Monday morning

That would mean hurricane watches go up for south Florida as late as Saturday morning, possibly as early as Friday evening.

I hear a G-IV will fly this afternoon. That should provide good model input for this evening's runs.

[HurrMark]

Essentially, what I am thinking (apologies to Haiti/Cuba residents) is that the worst case for SE Florida would be if the storm stays just far enough south of Haiti that the impact is minimal, and then the turn to the NW-NNW is sharper than expected and takes place around longitude 79. This would mean Isaac would not move through the easterly mountains of Cuba and western Hispaniola. A more gradual turn, and I really don't think Isaac would be more than a TS at landfall...far too many mountains and far too little time to regroup (maybe 24 hours, which is not much if the core is disrupted, which I would expect).

If Isaac moves into the Gulf, all bets are off...this would likely mean little impact with Haiti, and it would go through a narrow portion of Cuba (especially if it moves over Cuba west of 80), which would mean little land interruption. Plus, there is all the warm water of the SE Gulf it has to feed on. The "saving grace" would be if it stays far enough west of the peninsula so Tampa/St. Pete is not affected to a great degree, and makes landfall in the Big Bend, where the population is very low for FL standards (again, apologies to those residents, but I am considering overall impact).

(This is not an official forecast)

[wxwatcher1999]

I notice that the 12Z guidance shifted back westward, with the majority of the better models tracking Isaac toward the SW peninsula. I'd say somewhere between Apalachicola and Cape Hatteras is most likely. Can't tell for sure if Isaac will track west of, over, or east of the Peninsula.

Some things we are confident in:
Timing of arrival in the FL Straits (north of Cuba) Sunday evening
If it does strike south Florida, then the timing is Monday morning

That would mean hurricane watches go up for south Florida as late as Saturday morning, possibly as early as Friday evening.

I hear a G-IV will fly this afternoon. That should provide good model input for this evening's runs.

Wxman your not buying into the euro run?

[GTStorm]

I notice that the 12Z guidance shifted back westward, with the majority of the better models tracking Isaac toward the SW peninsula. I'd say somewhere between Apalachicola and Cape Hatteras is most likely. Can't tell for sure if Isaac will track west of, over, or east of the Peninsula.

Some things we are confident in:
Timing of arrival in the FL Straits (north of Cuba) Sunday evening
If it does strike south Florida, then the timing is Monday morning

That would mean hurricane watches go up for south Florida as late as Saturday morning, possibly as early as Friday evening.

I hear a G-IV will fly this afternoon. That should provide good model input for this evening's runs.

where's the best place to get the 12z guidance? the latest I can find is from 6z
Thanks!

[Bocadude85]

I notice that the 12Z guidance shifted back westward, with the majority of the better models tracking Isaac toward the SW peninsula. I'd say somewhere between Apalachicola and Cape Hatteras is most likely. Can't tell for sure if Isaac will track west of, over, or east of the Peninsula.

Some things we are confident in:
Timing of arrival in the FL Straits (north of Cuba) Sunday evening
If it does strike south Florida, then the timing is Monday morning

That would mean hurricane watches go up for south Florida as late as Saturday morning, possibly as early as Friday evening.

I hear a G-IV will fly this afternoon. That should provide good model input for this evening's runs.

So your not thinking this could get very far into the Gulf then?

[JPmia]

"I hear that G-IV will fly this afternoon"

That is great news.. looking for to this evening's model runs then.

[micktooth]

Good Luck to all of our friends in the islands. What do you all think about Haiti? This country is still in disarray from the earthquake. This might be another blow to those people.

Not an official forecast, please use the NHC for official information

[KBBOCA]

IF Isaac approaches SFL according to the NHC (BLACK TRACK), a slight change in the angle (RED TRACK) allows Isaac more time over warm waters and may allow Isaac to become a very significant storm affecting major SFL metropolitan areas and Lake Okeechobee.

This is just my thoughts only!

Hey Blown Away, wouldn't your track mean more potential disruption over Hispaniola? NHC's current track seems to have pretty minimal land interaction with Hispaniola & Cuba, so I'm not sure intensity would be much stronger with your scenario? But certainly a direct hit on Miami-Dade / Broward / West Palm and onwards to Lake O. is a bad scenario.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest, presentation improving IMO. Hang on islanders, hoping it stays weaker!

[cycloneye]

Here is an interesting web cam from the island of Montserrat focusing on the Soufriere Volcano. More cams and radars are posted on the first post of the sticky thread at the top.

[HurrMark]

]IF[/b] Isaac approaches SFL according to the NHC (BLACK TRACK), a slight change in the angle (RED TRACK) allows Isaac more time over warm waters and may allow Isaac to become a very significant storm affecting major SFL metropolitan areas and Lake Okeechobee.

This is just my thoughts only!

Respectfully disagree. If that track took place, Isaac's core will be ka-bosh, and while it may have a couple of days to regroup, it could have a very difficult time getting its act together again. Maybe a cat 1 in this circumstance unless it really blows up before Haiti.

As I said yesterday, it is very difficult to get a major hurricane to strike SE Florida from this part of the Caribbean...Jeanne was an exception because of its unusual track and it had a ton of time to regroup after Haiti. Cleo in 1964 took a very sharp turn northward and therefore avoided many of the high mountains. A gradual turn would make it nearly impossible for this to be a major hurricane...and most likely not a cat 2.

(not an official forecast)

[adam0983]

Models always go back and forth form east to west. We should not focus on the models at this time. We need to focus on the intensity of the storm and the how stong the weakness will be and how stong the ridge will be. This will be the future of Issac. The models are unreliable.

[Blown Away]

]IF[/b] Isaac approaches SFL according to the NHC (BLACK TRACK), a slight change in the angle (RED TRACK) allows Isaac more time over warm waters and may allow Isaac to become a very significant storm affecting major SFL metropolitan areas and Lake Okeechobee.

This is just my thoughts only!

Respectfully disagree. If that track took place, Isaac's core will be ka-bosh, and while it may have a couple of days to regroup, it could have a very difficult time getting its act together again. Maybe a cat 1 in this circumstance unless it really blows up before Haiti.

As I said yesterday, it is very difficult to get a major hurricane to strike SE Florida from this part of the Caribbean...Jeanne was an exception because of its unusual track and it had a ton of time to regroup after Haiti. Cleo in 1964 took a very sharp turn northward and therefore avoided many of the high mountains. A gradual turn would make it nearly impossible for this to be a major hurricane...and most likely not a cat 2.

(not an official forecast)

Maybe, I think either way the Haiti effect will be roughly the same, it's the avoiding Cuba that could allow more potential after crossing. JMHO Only.

[sandyb]

A good example as to why not to believe everything you read this is from out local weather site web page
Tropical Storm Isaac is tracking west at about 80 miles per hour, and is about to slam into the lesser Antilles Islands. Isaac is predicted to upgrade to a Hurricane Thursday night as it tracks just south of Puerto Rico. Then Issac’s track looks to shift northwest, over Cuba and into the tip of Florida. Right now he has sustained winds of 40mph.