ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

If you look at the above loop a fishie isn't as obvious due to the high moving off the NE US, and the fact that it's 12 degrees south of Kirk - we'll see what happens...

[cycloneye]

Here is the 12z Best Track.


INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 12, 2012, DB, O, 2012082818, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL122012

AL, 12, 2012083012, , BEST, 0, 138N, 426W, 30, 1007, TD 12, 2012083012, , BEST, 0, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 250, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[jedsshed]

It looks like the storm is currently tracking more to the west.
What do you see that suggests the storm is going to curve to the north?

[KWT]

If you look at the above loop a fishie isn't as obvious due to the high moving off the NE US, and the fact that it's 12 degrees south of Kirk - we'll see what happens...

I agree, whilst its still more likely than not, this system is moving faster and on a more westerly track than the models were expecting at this point. ECM is WAY off on this one...

I've few doubts this one is already very close to being a TS, its wrapping very nicely at the moment.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Posted a new Blog update on 98L - I'll have much more coverage of 98L as well as any other future threats:

http://www.theweatherwatch.org/satilite ... n-forming/

[Gustywind]

Look at the latest SSD numbers...

30/1145 UTC 13.9N 42.5W T2.0/2.0 98L
30/0545 UTC 14.0N 40.9W T1.5/1.5 98L

[wxman57]

It appears that a trof deepening along 65W in the next day or two should allow this storm to turn northeast of the Caribbean and pass near or east of Bermuda. There just won't be much of any high pressure area to its north by Sunday. Similar track to Kirk but a little west. Slight chance of a few squalls reaching the NE Caribbean. Conditions in its immediate path appear to be only semi-favorable for development. Likely another struggling TS south of 20 deg.

[MHurricanes]

Euro has shifted way west on Leslie:

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... to/1/large

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... .100pc.jpg

[jedsshed]

Thanks for the insight wxman57...

[cycloneye]

If you look closely,the center is on the eastern edge of convection. Maybe that is why they are holding for a few hours the classification.For now it doesn't seem to gain latitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Infared loop. Still moving mainly westward at 275 degrees.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Just like with the last many trofs this year. I dont think this one will be as amplified. they just have not been able to dig south all too much. A more westerly track change is quite possible.

[cycloneye]

Just like with the last many trofs this year. I dont think this one will be as amplified. they just have not been able to dig south all too much. A more westerly track change is quite possible.

Let's see what track NHC will have on the first advisory.

[rainstorm]

if it stays weak and moves fast it could get a bit more west.

[ouragans]

you guys seem to doubt of the recurve to happen sharply...

[otowntiger]

It appears that a trof deepening along 65W in the next day or two should allow this storm to turn northeast of the Caribbean and pass near or east of Bermuda. There just won't be much of any high pressure area to its north by Sunday. Similar track to Kirk but a little west. Slight chance of a few squalls reaching the NE Caribbean. Conditions in its immediate path appear to be only semi-favorable for development. Likely another struggling TS south of 20 deg.

While I don't question your high level of expertise as you are perhaps one of the most knowledgeable and level headed professional posters on this board, I seem to remember a very similar remark about what was to become Isaac. Just sayin'.

[Gustywind]

you guys seem to doubt of the recurve to happen sharply...

Ouragans what is your opinion about the sharp recurve?

[wxman57]

Just like with the last many trofs this year. I dont think this one will be as amplified. they just have not been able to dig south all too much. A more westerly track change is quite possible.

Isaac may have something to say about this trof. I noticed the interaction with Isaac and the pattern over the U.S. helped to amplify the pattern across the eastern U.S. and West Atlantic, deepening the trof off the east U.S. coast significantly. I'd say that there's an 80-90% chance the center of Leslie-to-be will pass north of the eastern Caribbean then recurve.

[Frank2]

Still moving mainly westward at 275 degrees.

I'd say 265 degrees, but I might be wrong...

[KWT]

Hmm thats quite a brave call Wxman57, especially when all models have already been too far north in the short term, and given this one is still tracking near due west and winds to the NW still look pretty strongly to the west.

Center looks like its trying to tuck into the convection at the moment.