ATL: SANDY - Models

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the longer it takes to start moving north quicker the more time the trough has to flatten out and weaken. i noticed the gfs yesterday had slown way down between 120 to 144 hrs similar to the euro.. now it has at least in the short to medium range come into better agreement with the euro. timing is of course key. the slower this moves the more likely there will be some westward shifts.

Also noticed quite a bit more of the GFS ensemble members now showing a more Euro solution.

add error rate and RI to the mix and the poleward movement associated with it and 150 miles to the west isn't out of the question in the modeling

one of the things sometimes forgotten is the land interaction with cuba. the center re-formations and pressure field expanding as it weakens all play a part in the models. still to early to tell.

[Blown Away]

If this hits Florida then goes up the east coast with the trough and not weakening, how many people would be impacted? Like 100 million?

trough is going to tear this thing a new one

Rubber meets the road with the trough off our coast, small window for SFL to get strong winds if Sandy moves 150 west of the current track. Once above Bahamas is when the shredding begins.

[adam0983]

I am waiting to see what the new GFS run will show later this morning. The trend today has been further west. Does a slower moving Sandy give Sandy more time to go further west or further east?

[jlauderdal]

If this hits Florida then goes up the east coast with the trough and not weakening, how many people would be impacted? Like 100 million?

trough is going to tear this thing a new one

Rubber meets the road with the trough off our coast, small window for SFL to get strong winds if Sandy moves 150 west of the current track. Once above Bahamas is when the shredding begins.

gfs wants to bend it east after the bahamas, ec storm wishcasters are hoping it rides the trough all the way up the ec as it turn into a nor easter...that scenario would keep alot of people on this board very happy..interesting there was some euro bashing yesterday and now the gfs is coming back to euro solution...gfs slows the storm down and thus the euro solution is in play now..be interesting to see what nhc does this morning, they like the gfs so based on the ensembles i would think they have to come west maybe 75 miles and then some more this afternoon if we continue to see the euro and gfs come into agreement...they really are tight considering how far out we are and the less than simple setup we will have over the SE USA

[Aric Dunn]

I am waiting to see what the new GFS run will show later this morning. The trend today has been further west. Does a slower moving Sandy give Sandy more time to go further west or further east?

for the most part yes. the second trough that is eventually supposed to pick up sandy has been forcast to weaken as it approaches the east coast allowing some ridging to build back to its n and ne per the euro.. witch swings it back towards the east coast. so a lower motion now may mean a track a little more to the west than current offical track.

[tolakram]

A couple of saved model graphics.

Euro has it running parallel to the east coast, probably ET by 144.





GFS has a deep system near Florida before quickly heading east/NE





Canadian splits the difference, and NOGAPS is similar to Euro but a little stronger earlier.

[CrazyC83]

Stronger storm blocks the trough, correct?

[jlauderdal]

Stronger storm blocks the trough, correct?

negative, stronger storm tends to move more to the left, not always...trough always wins the war

[Riptide]

If this hits Florida then goes up the east coast with the trough and not weakening, how many people would be impacted? Like 100 million?

trough is going to tear this thing a new one

Rubber meets the road with the trough off our coast, small window for SFL to get strong winds if Sandy moves 150 west of the current track. Once above Bahamas is when the shredding begins.

The system becomes post-tropical after passing Florida and becomes a very severe hybrid system fueled by baroclinic forces. This is a very ignorant statement to make. Infact, it's almost a triple-phase event and snowstorm for parts of the Great Lakes. Something on the scale of superstorm 93 or Hurricane Hazel.

[Portastorm]

My spidey-sense is telling me that tensions are ratcheting up a bit in this thread ... we can disagree with each other but let's remember to do it respectfully. I'm not saying anyone has crossed that line (yet). Just a friendly reminder to be mindful of our decorum. Thank you folks.

[CrazyC83]

A lot of standard rules need to be ignored with this storm in terms of dynamics.

[SouthFLTropics]

A lot of standard rules need to be ignored with this storm in terms of dynamics.

If possible can you please elaborate on exactly what you mean?

SFT

[Dean4Storms]

HPC likes the idea of bringing it back to the NE Coast......

https://twitter.com/spann/status/260745 ... to/1/large

[jlauderdal]

My spidey-sense is telling me that tensions are ratcheting up a bit in this thread ... we can disagree with each other but let's remember to do it respectfully. I'm not saying anyone has crossed that line (yet). Just a friendly reminder to be mindful of our decorum. Thank you folks.

it mostly people east of 81 posting so i expect it to be real cordial ..carry on

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS rolls in 10 minutes. Lets see if it continues to shift west like the 06z run did.

[CrazyC83]

A lot of standard rules need to be ignored with this storm in terms of dynamics.

If possible can you please elaborate on exactly what you mean?

SFT

I meant that things like shear and inland penetration don't matter too much, since it would be transitioning into a hybrid/post-tropical storm of insane intensity if the models are right.

[Blown Away]

GFS rolls in 10 minutes. Lets see if it continues to shift west like the 06z run did.

The 06z brought Sandy just off SFL much sooner than the 00z, so maybe a faster moving Sandy has more of a westerly component near day 4/5?

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS 42 Hr...Looks a bit west this early..

[DESTRUCTION5]

48 hr...Thurs at noon

[DESTRUCTION5]

54 hr