ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

So far, recon did find a wind shift, with a minimum pressure estimated at 1002 (from the aircraft). Now, will there be a VDM?

Also of note, Buoy 42003 at 11:52 am had 1-min sustained winds of 33 knots (didn't know if someone passed that along or not).

[Jevo]

Looks like this is just going to be a big rainy mess at this point. Most of the models are predicting a TD/TS at most. it would be nice to send all this moisture of to our friends in TX that could use it. The GFS is the outlier that shows intensification after it crosses the Florida East coast on its runs as showng in the 12Z GFS +120 image below the intensity forecast

[crimi481]

As wrong as this me end up being - gotta think Plane will relocate the NHC center plot to the E.S.E. ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Sanibel]

It's clear those two small vortices rotating around one another (and moving south) are not the center. The center appears to be about 40-50 miles east, near 26N/87W. Doesn't show up well on satellite, though.

I see what you are saying. If you look very closely there is a barely detectable swirl to the east just under the convection.

Does this mean there's diverging shear at different levels shooting the eddy in one direction and the main convection another?

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231726
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 11 20120623
171900 2545N 08748W 9750 00243 0023 +230 +230 253008 009 012 000 01
171930 2544N 08746W 9732 00260 0024 +237 +232 249009 010 008 001 00
172000 2543N 08745W 9737 00257 0025 +237 +232 245011 012 010 000 00
172030 2542N 08744W 9731 00262 0026 +230 +230 244012 012 009 000 01
172100 2541N 08743W 9736 00258 0026 +236 +234 245013 013 011 001 00
172130 2540N 08741W 9736 00258 0026 +236 +235 247014 015 011 001 00
172200 2539N 08740W 9736 00259 0027 +236 +231 248015 017 008 002 00
172230 2538N 08739W 9737 00259 0028 +237 +234 241017 018 011 001 00
172300 2537N 08737W 9733 00262 0029 +236 +236 239019 019 014 002 00
172330 2536N 08736W 9735 00261 0029 +240 +231 235018 019 015 001 00
172400 2535N 08735W 9735 00262 0030 +240 +232 236018 018 013 000 00
172430 2534N 08733W 9734 00263 0031 +240 +231 238019 019 016 000 00
172500 2532N 08732W 9733 00266 0032 +240 +234 233020 020 019 000 00
172530 2531N 08731W 9733 00265 0032 +240 +232 233020 021 017 001 00
172600 2530N 08730W 9733 00265 0033 +240 +230 239020 020 016 000 00
172630 2529N 08728W 9738 00263 0033 +240 +233 238019 020 014 000 00
172700 2528N 08727W 9739 00262 0034 +230 +230 235018 019 011 002 01
172730 2527N 08726W 9734 00266 0034 +230 +230 235019 019 013 002 01
172800 2526N 08724W 9737 00265 0035 +230 +230 234019 019 013 001 01
172830 2525N 08723W 9734 00267 0035 +230 +230 239019 019 014 001 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

So far, recon did find a wind shift, with a minimum pressure estimated at 1002 (from the aircraft). Now, will there be a VDM?

Also of note, Buoy 42003 at 11:52 am had 1-min sustained winds of 33 knots (didn't know if someone passed that along or not).

I have an update to that...looking through the data, the buoy, at 1447 UTC (10:47 am EDT), recorded a 1 minute sustained wind of 20 m/s, or 44.7 mph...is that enough to warrant putting the intensity of 96L at 40 knots? There were a couple 39 and 40 mph readings surrounding that one.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/42003.supl

[tailgater]

GE site

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

That's it. thanks

[Hurricane Andrew]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Sanibel]

I think there's a (I forget the word 'torquoidal'?) or "corkscrew" reflection of the surface center in that eddy. I'll gamble that it doesn't disappear.

[BigBeep]

What will the low showing on water vapor near TX/LA border do to the shear factor?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231736
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 12 20120623
172900 2524N 08722W 9733 00268 0035 +230 +230 239019 020 017 000 01
172930 2523N 08720W 9737 00265 0035 +235 +235 238020 021 017 000 00
173000 2522N 08719W 9734 00269 0036 +238 +229 240021 021 018 001 00
173030 2521N 08718W 9735 00268 0036 +240 +231 241021 021 020 001 00
173100 2519N 08717W 9737 00267 0037 +238 +234 245023 024 021 001 00
173130 2518N 08715W 9736 00268 0038 +240 +231 244023 024 021 000 00
173200 2517N 08714W 9735 00269 0038 +240 +225 244025 026 022 000 00
173230 2516N 08713W 9736 00268 0038 +242 +225 242027 028 023 000 00
173300 2515N 08711W 9736 00270 0039 +240 +228 236028 029 018 003 03
173330 2516N 08710W 9734 00271 0039 +239 +228 233027 028 /// /// 03
173400 2517N 08710W 9741 00264 0038 +239 +231 237024 027 022 001 00
173430 2519N 08710W 9734 00270 0038 +241 +227 238022 023 021 001 00
173500 2520N 08710W 9739 00266 0037 +240 +232 239022 023 022 000 00
173530 2522N 08710W 9733 00271 0038 +230 +230 236021 022 022 000 01
173600 2524N 08710W 9733 00271 0037 +240 +233 236019 021 020 001 00
173630 2525N 08710W 9733 00270 0037 +237 +236 234019 019 019 000 00
173700 2527N 08710W 9737 00266 0036 +238 +235 233018 019 019 000 00
173730 2529N 08710W 9735 00267 0035 +238 +234 227018 019 015 002 00
173800 2530N 08710W 9737 00265 0035 +230 +230 221017 018 017 000 01
173830 2532N 08710W 9735 00266 0035 +230 +230 224016 016 014 002 01
$$
;

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +48


12z HWRF +72


12z HWRF +78


12z HWRF +84 going for some Tex/Mex takeout

[crimi481]

It's clear those two small vortices rotating around one another (and moving south) are not the center. The center appears to be about 40-50 miles east, near 26N/87W. Doesn't show up well on satellite, though.

I see what you are saying. If you look very closely there is a barely detectable swirl to the east just under the convection.

Does this mean there's diverging shear at different levels shooting the eddy in one direction and the main convection another?

Beggining to think we have a Hybrid -again in Gulf. Open storm possibly.
Gotta tip hats to GFS - as they have best handle over last 36 hrs or so?

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFDL: Florida Big Bend landfall:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

EDIT: Hey Jevo, what site did you get those HWRF images from?

[Aric Dunn]

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg822/scaled.php?server=822&filename=96lj.jpg&res=landing

It's clear those two small vortices rotating around one another (and moving south) are not the center. The center appears to be about 40-50 miles east, near 26N/87W. Doesn't show up well on satellite, though.

yep the last few frames show it starting to be exposed as well

[Sanibel]

[quote="crimi481]Beggining to think we have a Hybrid -again in Gulf. Open storm possibly.
Gotta tip hats to GFS - as they have best handle over last 36 hrs or so?[/quote]


Nah. Too far into the season with too good SST's under it for that. Just shear and a typical discombobulated June system. Keep watching.

[ronjon]

12z CMC - hurricane into Biloxi-Mobile area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Hurricane Andrew]

12z GFDL: Florida Big Bend landfall:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

EDIT: Hey Jevo, what site did you get those HWRF images from?

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html

[cycloneye]

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg822/scaled.php?server=822&filename=96lj.jpg&res=landing

It's clear those two small vortices rotating around one another (and moving south) are not the center. The center appears to be about 40-50 miles east, near 26N/87W. Doesn't show up well on satellite, though.

yep the last few frames show it starting to be exposed as well

Here they are.