ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Dynamical models are in good agreement on a turn toward the NW into the Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif

Intensity models are favorable

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... zearly.gif

[Ivanhater]

Also, just looking at the European model, if the intensity is correct on the NHC forecast, the Euro breaks the ridge down over the Gulf which would allow for a NW to northerly turn. All depending on intensity of course.

[Blown Away]

Michael, can you provide a link to get that model graphic?

[tolakram]

Michael, can you provide a link to get that model graphic?

He directly linked (for shame), refresh to see the links above.

[Ivanhater]

Michael, can you provide a link to get that model graphic?

Look at the latest 00Z run of the Euro...you will see the 500mb heights move off to the NW from Texas and a break over the central Gulf. If Ernesto is as strong as forecast, based on the Euro it would turn north into the Gulf.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

[floridasun78]

Next Mission...

TD-05 FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72--
A. 03/1800Z-04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 03/1630Z
D. 14.0N 61.6W
E. 03/1730Z TO 04/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

what time is that?

[tolakram]

1800z is 2pm EDT, same as yesterday.

[floridasun78]

it look like cone stift back to left a bit again

[Weather Watcher]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Doesn't this look like ernie is an old wizard, the black line I drew is his helmut.

[brunota2003]

It's not at 18Z anymore...from todays TCPOD:

3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

So it will start 4 hours later, or 6 pm EDT.

[JPmia]

Michael, can you provide a link to get that model graphic?

Look at the latest 00Z run of the Euro...you will see the 500mb heights move off to the NW from Texas and a break over the central Gulf. If Ernesto is as strong as forecast, based on the Euro it would turn north into the Gulf.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

And the 00z GFDL is seeing this as well:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

HWRF is simliar and little to the west, but weaker:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[rockyman]

Question for the Board: What effect, if any, will the Bahamas system have on the movement of Ernesto? If the Bahamas system hangs around long enough, could it cause a weakness in the Atlantic ridge and allow Ernesto a hole to pass through?

[canes04]

Rockyman, great question. I was thinking about that earlier.
The 'real' season has begun.

[Sanibel]

Doesn't this look like ernie is an old wizard, the black line I drew is his helmut.

Yeah I see it with the mustache. Like the old knight who guards the challis in Raiders.

[RL3AO]

GFS - 12z

36hr



60hr



78hr

[RL3AO]

102hr



114hr

[tolakram]

Center remains exposed.

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[PTrackerLA]

90L looking better than Ernesto right now IMO.

[GCANE]

102hr



114hr

The ULL in the west GOM and the other NE of the Bahamas should really help to crank a poleward outflow channel.

[ROCK]

the key here is how fast the ridge builds back in and how organized Ernie is at that time....needs to slow down so it can stack up. Moving way to fast.

a lot of variables right now...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots


you can see the 12Z CMC is in and does bring this into the GOM heading NW....