ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Truth is Sandy should be handed over to the HPC shortly. Problem is that the general public has no idea who that is. This will cause a dilemma that the TPC faces every time it hands off to them. The general public just thinks the hurricane (or tropical storm) disappears and there is no need to worry anymore. I’ll bet that if you did a public poll that 90 percent of the respondents would not know who they are.

[jlauderdal]

I know this may seem a little insensitive to the NE folks. But has anyone heard if the Dolphins/Jets game will be cancelled on Sunday?

People may be about to die or lose their homes and businesses. They're talking about nearly a billion dollars in damages and you're asking about something so incredibly insignificant as a bunch of guys chasing a ball?

cmon, canes04 lives in miami and fully understands the significance of big storms..the nfl rolls on as does the weather and they often have a head on collision. That game will be played for sure.

[Frank2]

The media are having to readjust their hype - they know that they can't make reference to historic hurricanes of the past because Sandy will not be one much longer, but they are starting to focus on the "megastorm" instead...

Ugh - the world would be a MUCH calmer place if the media just stuck with reporting the news, not creating it...

P.S. Didn't mean to get too much off topic, but media hype is a burr under my saddle...

Frank

[Frank2]

Truth is Sandy should be handed over to the HPC shortly. Problem is that the general public has no idea who that is. This will cause a dilemma that the TPC faces every time it hands off to them. The general public just thinks the hurricane (or tropical storm) disappears and there is no need to worry anymore. I’ll bet that if you did a public poll that 90 percent of the respondents would not know who they are.

Yes, I agree - many were getting hyper yesterday when it was suggested that Sandy would still be a hurricane making landfall in NYC, but now will decide that it's just another northeaster and leave it at that - it's a dangerous situation if it turns out as bad as the models have been predicting all week - but most are thinking of it as just another rainy windy Fall weekend...

[Terry]

I really don't think the media can win. Either they are accused of over-hyping or being neglectful in their duty to inform.

The media are having to readjust their hype - they know that they can't make reference to historic hurricanes of the past because Sandy will not be one much longer, but they are starting to focus on the "megastorm" instead...

Ugh - the world would be a MUCH calmer place if the media just stuck with reporting the news, not creating it...

P.S. Didn't mean to get too much off topic, but media hype is a burr under my saddle...

Frank

[HurrMark]

The media are having to readjust their hype - they know that they can't make reference to historic hurricanes of the past because Sandy will not be one much longer, but they are starting to focus on the "megastorm" instead...

Ugh - the world would be a MUCH calmer place if the media just stuck with reporting the news, not creating it...

P.S. Didn't mean to get too much off topic, but media hype is a burr under my saddle...

Frank

Not to get political, but this is the issue with today's media...news stations drum things into your head so much that you simply feel that X will happen when it actually will be Y.

Anyway, it looks like 'Sandy's center has started to move a bit...maybe a slight NNE wobble...but very slow.

[CrazyC83]

I think Sandy should just be called a Subtropical Cyclone to keep it in NHC hands operationally but partially recognize what is happening.

[ozonepete]

Here's the answer to all of you discussing the dilemma of what to call it: the thing that it will be: a post-tropical hurricane. Now you might say a hurricane can't be post-tropical but I would say yes. It just should mean a post-tropical or subtropical storm with winds of hurricane force.

Note the white circle with the H in the middle over south Jersey/Delaware:

[Wthrman13]

What is the significance of it having really low pressure? In other words, what is that shorthand for in a practical sense? How does that make the storm more dangerous -- which aspects does it affect?

Thanks!

The lower the central pressure of the storm, the stronger the pressure difference (gradient) between the center and the outside environment. A stronger pressure gradient creates stronger winds. A lower central pressure *by itself* does not necessarily equate to stronger winds; this is a common misconception. What really matters is the change in pressure over distance, or the pressure gradient. For this storm, many of the models are predicting a central pressure close to 930 mb as Sandy approaches the coast (which, if it verifies, will be the lowest central pressure ever recorded for any low pressure system in the NE, to my knowledge). Were it a typical hurricane, with a tight pressure gradient, this would typically correlate with Cat 4-5 wind speeds. But since the structure of Sandy will be transitioning to a much larger extratropical system, the pressure difference will be spread out over a much larger area, leading to a weaker pressure gradient and correspondingly weaker wind speeds. *But*--and this is a big "but"--, because of its large size, there will be a much larger area of strong winds than normally seen with a storm of this type, likely leading to widespread wind damage over a very large area. That, coupled with the fact that the moisture content of this storm will be more tropical than not, the full moon (meaning higher tides), and the population density of the area it is most likely to affect, could make this storm one of the all-time biggest weather disasters the NE has ever seen.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting, no change at 11 am (maybe a tad bit closer to NC and a bit south at landfall). But still expected to be a hurricane when east of us. They also didn't extend the tropical storm watches any further north.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Sandy is clearly losing tropical characteristic, as others have pointed out here, and could already by subtropical/hybrid. In many ways Hurricane Sandy reminds me of Hurricane Noel 2007, which started to transition at a ridiculously low latitude.

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot ... chive.html

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot ... chive.html

[Evil Jeremy]

I think Sandy should just be called a Subtropical Cyclone to keep it in NHC hands operationally but partially recognize what is happening.

Agreed. The last thing we need are for hurricane watches/warnings to go up for the NE, and then be discontinued abrupt when this goes post-tropical. But they can keep the warnings if they go subtropical on paper. This is not a time to create confusion.

[KBBOCA]

What I find so sobering in reading the entries here, that it is the ProMets who are sounding the most serious warnings, not the easily excitable amateurs. That tells me this is truly a DANGEROUS storm.

Thanks to all of the mets here who are taking time to explain what's happening. You are helping each of us in turn be able to better inform our friends and family who are in the path.

Very grateful for you all, and it's what makes S2K such a valuable site.

[chris_fit]

From Vis Sat... looks like she has turned toward the N/NNE and is on the move slowly

[Praxus]

The media are having to readjust their hype - they know that they can't make reference to historic hurricanes of Ugh - the world would be a MUCH calmer place if the media just stuck with reporting the news, not creating it...
P.S. Didn't mean to get too much off topic, but media hype is a burr under my saddle...
Frank

Actually in this case I see more hype coming from the pros then the media. If anything, that shows what an exceptional situation this is.

[HurrMark]

I think Sandy should just be called a Subtropical Cyclone to keep it in NHC hands operationally but partially recognize what is happening.

Agreed. The last thing we need are for hurricane watches/warnings to go up for the NE, and then be discontinued abrupt when this goes post-tropical. But they can keep the warnings if they go subtropical on paper. This is not a time to create confusion.

That's another thing...we could say "gale and storm warnings" like they did back before 1987 when the system changed, but no one would get it these days.

[ozonepete]

I think Sandy should just be called a Subtropical Cyclone to keep it in NHC hands operationally but partially recognize what is happening.

Agreed. The last thing we need are for hurricane watches/warnings to go up for the NE, and then be discontinued abrupt when this goes post-tropical. But they can keep the warnings if they go subtropical on paper. This is not a time to create confusion.

That's another thing...we could say "gale and storm warnings" like they did back before 1987 when the system changed, but no one would get it these days.

It appears pretty likely now that the NHC will not hand this off. Notice how they have it as post-tropical but still a hurricane on the tracking map. Thus I expect they will put warnings up for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast and follow through. Frankly I hope they do, as you guys are saying, for continuity and more of a secure feeling for the public. Wxman57 (and others) do you think the NHC will issue warnings for up here and keep advisories going?

[HurrMark]

Here's the answer to all of you discussing the dilemma of what to call it: the thing that it will be: a post-tropical hurricane. Now you might say a hurricane can't be post-tropical but I would say yes. It just should mean a post-tropical or subtropical storm with winds of hurricane force.

Note the white circle with the H in the middle over south Jersey/Delaware:

True...XTROP storms can be stronger than 74 mph. The Beaufort scale, which was developed long before most people had any idea what a tropical cyclone is, has a Force Twelve for hurricane. And ask the British who lived through the great 1987 storm and they can tell you (Michael Fish became infamous in that storm when he said on BBC that a Hurricane was not coming when indeed the worst storm since 1703 hit England...technically he was right in the tropical sense but not in the intensity sense).

From what it seems, the NHC has no choice but to call this tropical until it goes into Delaware or Jersey or wherever. They can't issue watches/warnings for this type of storm and then drop them all when it becomes XTROP.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Jevo]

Here in Delray Beach, FL. Nice and Sunny at the moment, blue skys above, and a decent breeze...