ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricanehink]

If it strengthens, Beryl will be the earliest US hurricane landfall, beating Alma in 1966. The hurricane in 1908 didn't make landfall and it didn't produce hurricane force winds in the US. Basin-wide, the earliest was January 2, 1955, with Hurricane Alice2.

[brunota2003]

Sorry to hear about your friend, Dave! Also, sorry I'm not of much help, I have been visiting friends and family this weekend and didn't bring my laptop. I've been using my iPhone to post every so often and keep tabs on things.

[CrazyC83]

If it strengthens, Beryl will be the earliest US hurricane landfall, beating Alma in 1966. The hurricane in 1908 didn't make landfall and it didn't produce hurricane force winds in the US. Basin-wide, the earliest was January 2, 1955, with Hurricane Alice2.

The 1908 storm actually did make landfall on the Outer Banks, but due to its large wind field, the cane-force winds were only over water.

[capepoint]

Unless it makes a big intensity jump, i don't think they will rename it at this point, for several reasons.
1- They have not issued hurricane watches or warnings, so it would look like they got caught with their pants down to the public, and it would cause all kinds of headaches for local and state governments as well as many private corporations.
2- Especially in an area where you don't have many land falling strong systems, you do not want people thinking that they survived a hurricane when they really only experienced a high-end storm. Makes a huge difference when its a 130 mph hurricane about to landfall, and someone compares that to this storm, thinking this wasn't too bad, so I won't leave for that one. (us weather geeks are the only ones who even notice the wind rating. The general populace just sees 'hurricane' or 'storm'.)
3- There is no real difference in a 75 mph hurricane, and a 70 mph tropical storm. With only minutes until landfall, why trigger all of the things that automatically have to happen for a hurricane watch/warning, and all of the money that those things cost, when the damage will be the same? They can upgrade post-season to accurately reflect the storm, and the public will never know.

just my opinion........

[Aric Dunn]

well if it continues to improve like it is and intensify then they will likely do it. from when recon was there till now its become even more organized and a strong curved band has almost completely wrapped around.

[FL_Cane]

Unless it makes a big intensity jump, i don't think they will rename it at this point, for several reasons.
1- They have not issued hurricane watches or warnings, so it would look like they got caught with their pants down to the public, and it would cause all kinds of headaches for local and state governments as well as many private corporations.
2- Especially in an area where you don't have many land falling strong systems, you do not want people thinking that they survived a hurricane when they really only experienced a high-end storm. Makes a huge difference when its a 130 mph hurricane about to landfall, and someone compares that to this storm, thinking this wasn't too bad, so I won't leave for that one. (us weather geeks are the only ones who even notice the wind rating. The general populace just sees 'hurricane' or 'storm'.)
3- There is no real difference in a 75 mph hurricane, and a 70 mph tropical storm. With only minutes until landfall, why trigger all of the things that automatically have to happen for a hurricane watch/warning, and all of the money that those things cost, when the damage will be the same? They can upgrade post-season to accurately reflect the storm, and the public will never know.

just my opinion........

You make some valid points. However, I hope these aren't the reasons they don't upgrade. They have a job to do, and sweetening it up or not doing it for money reasons gets in the way of doing that job.

[jinftl]

Bryan Norcross just noted that the area where recon has found the strongest winds...possibly approaching the Cat 1 threshold...was in the band quite a bit northeast of the center (circled in black)...and that could actually come onshore in georgia, depending on how it rotates down.

The band to the east of Jacksonville will be a strong one..then there will be quite a lull in that area as the partial center/eyewalls moves in, but areas to the north could really start getting in on the action.

[Hurricanehink]

If it strengthens, Beryl will be the earliest US hurricane landfall, beating Alma in 1966. The hurricane in 1908 didn't make landfall and it didn't produce hurricane force winds in the US. Basin-wide, the earliest was January 2, 1955, with Hurricane Alice2.

The 1908 storm actually did make landfall on the Outer Banks, but due to its large wind field, the cane-force winds were only over water.

No, it didn't actually make landfall. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html - 1908 May & NC, TS TS 989 55 - & Indicates that the hurricane center did make a direct landfall, but that the strongest winds likely remained offshore.
Thus the winds indicated here are lower than in HURDAT.

[FrontRunner]

Despite having a very good structure, the convection is still relatively weak as seen on the infrared. I wonder if an argument can be made that the normal flight level to surface reduction factor wouldn't apply. So if they don't upgrade, perhaps it's because they think the 80 kts at flight level wouldn't quite translate to 65 kts at the surface (i.e., < 80% reduction factor).

[capepoint]

I would think that the worst of the winds will be in that band that is just about to move onshore. With it being a low end hurricane/high end ts, there should be no real eyewall winds. The center be feeling the coastline by now, so chances of intensification are slim to none.

[Peach]

Last hurricane of note to make landfall in the Jacksonville-St. Augustine FL area was Dora in 1964 with 125 mph winds. Alma in 1970 was the last May hurricane but it wasn't such at landfall in the US or Cuba.

Steve

Fay was a tropical storm, but dumped 9+ inches in some parts of Jax in 2008; we got the fringes of a tropical storm in 2004, but I cannot remember the name. (The electricity is flickering on and off already, NE of Jax.)

[Blown Away]

Just when many thought the 2012 season would be uneventful, we get an almost hurricane in May land falling in Jacksonville. Hurricane events in Jacksonville happen on average about every 40+ years. Gotta love it if you follow tropical systems! Hope no significant damage occurs!!

[CrazyC83]

Those broad distant peak winds still makes this look like a subtropical storm...

[Aric Dunn]

well doppler velocities with the band approaching Fernandina and jax is showing a lot of hurricane force winds. at only 1000 to 1500 feet and that the cells themselves are spiking to 50k feet so the winds may actually mix down with the band.

Convection increasing and becoming more concentrated around the eyewall and seems to be contracting.

[KatDaddy]

Taking a run at 75MPH

[Aric Dunn]

Bryan Norcross just noted that the area where recon has found the strongest winds...possibly approaching the Cat 1 threshold...was in the band quite a bit northeast of the center (circled in black)...and that could actually come onshore in georgia, depending on how it rotates down.

The band to the east of Jacksonville will be a strong one..then there will be quite a lull in that area as the partial center/eyewalls moves in, but areas to the north could really start getting in on the action.

if they found winds that high that far. the new inner band just outside eye wall is probably producing much more of that.

[ozonepete]

well doppler velocities with the band approaching Fernandina and jax is showing a lot of hurricane force winds. at only 1000 to 1500 feet and that the cells themselves are spiking to 50k feet so the winds may actually mix down with the band.

Convection increasing and becoming more concentrated around the eyewall and seems to be contracting.

That band is very concentrated. Should easily produce the highest winds yet when it comes onshore.

[Terry]

from ActionNewsJax.com

Sunday @ 9 PM: JEA is reporting that nearly 1,200 customers are without power in the area bounded by University Boulevard and Merrill Road. According to JEA.com, crews were on the scene. The utility reported that scattered power outages were reported throughout the area. Chief Meteorologist Mike BUresh said the distance across the center of the storm was about 50 mph. A band of heavy rain is expected to batter the beaches before moving inland. Sustained winds of up to 60 mph were reported in Mayport; other areas were seeing strong winds as well. Action News reporter Ryan Smith is reporting blowing wind at Jacksonville Beach. He also reports that power outages at the beaches have been reported.

[CrazyC83]

If I am looking at the map right, Savannah could get that strong band...

[jinftl]

i think he meant it in the context that the storm was still not the most organized - because with tropical storms, even some weaker hurricanes, the worst weather can be far removed from the center. This band could be a lingering feature of when beryl was sub-tropical through early this p.m., as one feature of cold core systems is the worst weather 100+ miles or so to the northeast of the center. So really what we are seeing is an evolving system...if it had a few more hours over water, that outer band with the strongest winds recon measured could have easily spiraled in like a figure skater doing a spin with their arms pulled in and get faster and faster in terms of wind.

We have the benefit of hourly updates from the buoy 40-50 miles east of saint augustine...as the western band moved through the buoy saw gusts to 58mph. I suspect that band has gotten stronger and may bring gusts to 70-75mph on the beaches, 55-65 once you move inland a few miles.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
909 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

DUVAL-NASSAU-ST. JOHNS-
909 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
...ANOTHER RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE FROM MAYPORT TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH...

AT 905 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS MOVING ONTO THE COASTLINE
FROM NEAR MAYPORT TO NEAR PONTE VEDRA BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.
THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND PONTE VEDRA BEACH...AMELIA CITY...
TALBOT ISLAND...SAWGRASS...NEPTUNE BEACH...MAYPORT...LITTLE TALBOT
ISLAND...JACKSONVILLE BEACH...GUANA RIVER STATE PARK AND PALM VALLEY
THROUGH 930 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

Bryan Norcross just noted that the area where recon has found the strongest winds...possibly approaching the Cat 1 threshold...was in the band quite a bit northeast of the center (circled in black)...and that could actually come onshore in georgia, depending on how it rotates down.

The band to the east of Jacksonville will be a strong one..then there will be quite a lull in that area as the partial center/eyewalls moves in, but areas to the north could really start getting in on the action.

if they found winds that high that far. the new inner band just outside eye wall is probably producing much more of that.