ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[MGC]

Looks like the eye is starting to fill a bit based on radar....MGC

[Peach]

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

It doesn't look completely tropical to me but its more tropical than non-tropical. Its "eye" is large and convection is quite thin which is akin to subtropical cyclones.

Actually if it "looks" tropical to any of us is not that important. What I should have said is that all of the data points to tropical as the NHC made clear. A large eye is never an indication of tropical or subtropical. Many subtropical storms have very small centers and many large intense hurricanes have vey large eyes, such as Ike or Isabel did. Some pretty intense hurricanes have also had "thin" convection and were quite dry. Neither of those criteria determine tropical or subtropical, just to set the record straight.

I asked earlier about the barometric pressure; the reply was large tropical storms can have Cat. 1 or more barometric pressure. Is Beryl large enough for BP to not be part of the tropical storm/hurricane analysis? In addition for insurance purposes, might this not be a nor'easter? We had one in NE Florida in March, late 1990's that did a lot of damage, electric off for over a day.

Here in mid Baker County, the wind has picked up, but no hard rain yet.

[CrazyC83]

Guessing 55 kt for the landfall intensity, assuming a slight weakening since Recon left.

Based on unofficial obs, the landfall pressure looks to have been 995mb.

[Cyclenall]

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

It doesn't look completely tropical to me but its more tropical than non-tropical. Its "eye" is large and convection is quite thin which is akin to subtropical cyclones.

Actually if it "looks" tropical to any of us is not that important. What I should have said is that all of the data points to tropical as the NHC made clear. A large eye is never an indication of tropical or subtropical. Many subtropical storms have very small centers and many large intense hurricanes have vey large eyes, such as Ike or Isabel did. Some pretty intense hurricanes have also had "thin" convection and were quite dry. Neither of those criteria determine tropical or subtropical, just to set the record straight.

Even that recon data showed some irregularities. I wouldn't compare Beryl to Ike or Isabel with the cloud-free center region as Beryl had this feature for quite a while.

[ozonepete]

I asked earlier about the barometric pressure; the reply was large tropical storms can have Cat. 1 or more barometric pressure. Is Beryl large enough for BP to not be part of the tropical storm/hurricane analysis? In addition for insurance purposes, might this not be a nor'easter? We had one in NE Florida in March, late 1990's that did a lot of damage, electric off for over a day.

Here in mid Baker County, the wind has picked up, but no hard rain yet.

It is definitely not a nor'easter. And barometric pressure is ALWAYS part of the analysis along with all of the other factors. We will just have to wait for the NHC post-season analysis to see what the final designation is. I sure hope you stay safe there.

[lester]

Guessing 55 kt for the landfall intensity, assuming a slight weakening since Recon left.

TROPICAL STORM BERYL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1215 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE
BEACH...

DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN JACKSONVILLE
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL MADE LANDFALL NEAR
JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA AROUND 1210 AM EDT...0410 UTC. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF BERYL AT LANDFALL WAS 70 MPH...110 KM/H.

PRIOR TO LANDFALL...A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION IN MAYPORT
FLORIDA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.


SUMMARY OF 1210 AM EDT...0410 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Aric Dunn]

I asked earlier about the barometric pressure; the reply was large tropical storms can have Cat. 1 or more barometric pressure. Is Beryl large enough for BP to not be part of the tropical storm/hurricane analysis? In addition for insurance purposes, might this not be a nor'easter? We had one in NE Florida in March, late 1990's that did a lot of damage, electric off for over a day.

Here in mid Baker County, the wind has picked up, but no hard rain yet.

It is definitely not a nor'easter. And barometric pressure is ALWAYS part of the analysis along with all of the other factors. We will just have to wait for the NHC post-season analysis to see what the final designation is. I sure hope you stay safe there.

there is no question that is was purely tropical. you can have a shallow TC. for instance hurricane jeanne in 2004 after it did its loop was a very shallow hurricane with tops barely hitting 50k ft.

[ozonepete]

Even that recon data showed some irregularities. I wouldn't compare Beryl to Ike or Isabel with the cloud-free center region as Beryl had this feature for quite a while.

LOL I didn't compare Beryl to either storm. All I said is that a large or small CoC is not an indicator that a TC is tropical or subtropical. Right? See also Aric's post just above.

[NDG]

Guessing 55 kt for the landfall intensity, assuming a slight weakening since Recon left.

Based on unofficial obs, the landfall pressure looks to have been 995mb.

Mayport NAS now reporting pressure of 995mb with wind gusting to 31 mph from the east, so the center is probably to their south, so I am guessing that it was around 993-994mb at landfall near Jax Beach/Ponte Vedra area.

[CrazyC83]

Guessing 55 kt for the landfall intensity, assuming a slight weakening since Recon left.

Based on unofficial obs, the landfall pressure looks to have been 995mb.

Mayport NAS now reporting pressure of 995mb with wind gusting to 31 mph from the east, so the center is probably to their south, so I am guessing that it was around 993-994mb at landfall near Jax Beach/Ponte Vedra area.

Interesting, I am seeing mostly 995s and 996s on wundermap, so 994 is probably correct on that. It is 1 mb for every 10 kt sustained, not gusts.

[crimi481]

This type of storm becoming the norm -for our region of planet
Most of storms last 2 years have had a Hybrid "Twin" Mid/Low centers. (Large Eye - large wind fields)
Planetary Atmosheric changes. (Off Topic - but somewhat relevent?)

[yzerfan]

I asked earlier about the barometric pressure; the reply was large tropical storms can have Cat. 1 or more barometric pressure. Is Beryl large enough for BP to not be part of the tropical storm/hurricane analysis? In addition for insurance purposes, might this not be a nor'easter? We had one in NE Florida in March, late 1990's that did a lot of damage, electric off for over a day.

If the insurance companies can call it tropical cyclone damage, then they'll do anything they can to call it tropical cyclone damage. I bet the terms of their policies consider hurricanes and tropical storms to be the same thing for charging the higher deductible purposes. We ended up filing a claim for damage from a lightning storm somewhere around 2002-03 and actually had to spend about three minutes of the first phone call going over how 'our' lightning storm had nothing to do with the tropical storm hitting Texas about that same day in order to only have the $500 deductible instead of 2%.

[MGC]

Over here in Mississippi if the damage is from a named storm then insurance won't cover it. I'm in the wind pool....don't have any idea how insurance is treated in Florida.

Beryl is about half way onshore...should start spinning down. Beryl should bust the drought that has plagued NW Florida......MGC

[Incident_MET]

Florida Statutes says for the "hurricane deductible" portion of a Florida policy to be used the system must be deemed a hurricane by NHC, otherwise the deductibles will operate under standard policy wind storm deductibles. With Beryl the best case for insurance companies would have been for a 75 mph hurricane to hit tonight.

I asked earlier about the barometric pressure; the reply was large tropical storms can have Cat. 1 or more barometric pressure. Is Beryl large enough for BP to not be part of the tropical storm/hurricane analysis? In addition for insurance purposes, might this not be a nor'easter? We had one in NE Florida in March, late 1990's that did a lot of damage, electric off for over a day.

If the insurance companies can call it tropical cyclone damage, then they'll do anything they can to call it tropical cyclone damage. I bet the terms of their policies consider hurricanes and tropical storms to be the same thing for charging the higher deductible purposes. We ended up filing a claim for damage from a lightning storm somewhere around 2002-03 and actually had to spend about three minutes of the first phone call going over how 'our' lightning storm had nothing to do with the tropical storm hitting Texas about that same day in order to only have the $500 deductible instead of 2%.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop of landfall

http://i.imgur.com/DdEjy.gif

[crimi481]

So -is it a pretty sure thing - that a cold front will pick up storm - send it N.E. ?
Wil she stall over FL - or keep moving west next few days?

[Cyclenall]

LOL I didn't compare Beryl to either storm. All I said is that a large or small CoC is not an indicator that a TC is tropical or subtropical. Right? See also Aric's post just above.

Ike and Isabel had large eyes when they're major hurricanes, Beryl had a large cloud-free center since nearly yesterday when it was a mid-STS. We know we can't compare because of this. This is all I'm saying. I don't know of too many mid-TS's (none really) that had a large cloud-free center so this is where my suspicion lies. This is a tropical storm now, but doesn't it look odd still?

[AdamFirst]

So -is it a pretty sure thing - that a cold front will pick up storm - send it N.E. ?
Wil she stall over FL - or keep moving west next few days?

It's going to head about 60-80 miles inland according to the forecast track, before meandering around a bit during Memorial Day and then being punted out on Tuesday

[WacoWx]

2 named storms in May. And a good looking Beryl.

I havent read this entire thread, and this is completely off topic, but I feel likes its safe to say that everything that typically happens weather wise since last October (early winter storm up north) has occurred one month'ish earlier than we are accustomed to. Sever weather was earlier (not as many cold fronts making it far enough south), winter ended very early, and our wet season was early. I've got many examples, but this is the first time as a weather junky I have seen such a regular "early" pattern. Its almost predictable from an almanac perspective. One month is a pretty big difference and I can t help but wonder why. Yall are the only folks that I know that couldve recognized this, or would care about it.

If I can copy/paste this elsewhere to have a discussion, I would completely entertain that.

p.s. Portastorm, congrats on your recent rains. Well, earlier this month, at least. Travis has a long way to go, but there is no way we see a summer like last in our lifetime (knocking on wood).

[senorpepr]

Looks like Beryl may be a little faster than the NHC forecast (i.e. not slowing down as much as forecast):


Nonetheless, some much needed rain is falling over the JAX region. Radar estimated 3-4" in some locations in NE Florida: