ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[somethingfunny]

So, I have an ever-decreasing amount of faith in the media to tell me, accurately without hype, what I should be worried about, and when I should be worried about it.

We're in Richmond, VA. Based on everyone's best guess, what would be our biggest threats, if any... And should we by truly worried? We are a city split in half by the James River, which is always a concern.

Be prepared for a long time without power, and if you're in an area that might be flooded by the river, be prepared to leave quickly if you have to. Even if it doesn't pan out in Richmond, you'll have supplies you'd eventually use anyway, and a practice run at preparing for the next big disaster. And if it does strike Richmond, then you'll be ready.

[Weatherguy173]

what would your expectations be for Newark, NJ in terms of power outages and rainfall?

[jeff]

what would your expectations be for Newark, NJ in terms of power outages and rainfall?

Pretty good bet for power outages. Rainfall 4-8 inches...isolated 10-15 inches possible...depends on banding of heavy rainfall in the warm conveyor north of the center.

[bcargile]

I just wanted to jump in and say how much I enjoy and appreciate the details and insight shared in this thread. I rarely post, as I have little knowledge, but certainly learn a lot from this site.

I am currently on the north end of Topsail Island, NC, about 75 yards from the ocean. Not much of anything so far, just cloudy most of the day. The surf is high and a bit rough as high tide approaches. Winds seem to be picking up over the last hour or so.

[KBBOCA]

In reading a few more posts at WeatherNerd (the blog I linked in my last post here), I thought it would be worth linking here as a helpful resource. I seem to remember that the blogger in question, Brendan Loy, gained national attention because of his accurate and helpful posts about Katrina. It's good to discover he's still blogging.

http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/ ... real-deal/

http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/

[stephen23]

I have a question for one of the Pro Mets. Can you kind of explain what is exactly going on with the storm at this time. Over the past two hours it seems to my un-trained eye to being looking a whole lot better then it has since around 2 am this morning. To me it appears to really be tightening up again. It also appears as if it has almost absorbed the ull over florida. The shear from that low appears to have almost let off, in fact alomost appears deeper clouds are starting to to get wrapped back around. Last night at 2 I also noticed a big anti-cyclonic feature had set up south of Sandy between her and the monsoonal trough (if that is the correct wording). That feature appeared to be limiting flow into the storm and almost cut off the flow it had been pulling from the deep Carribean. That feature has now appeared to be washed out and she seems to be pulling back together. Am I right on anything I am seeing? I am not a Met just have a desire to learn more about how these things work.

[jeff]

I have a question for one of the Pro Mets. Can you kind of explain what is exactly going on with the storm at this time. Over the past two hours it seems to my un-trained eye to being looking a whole lot better then it has since around 2 am this morning. To me it appears to really be tightening up again. It also appears as if it has almost absorbed the ull over florida. The shear from that low appears to have almost let off, in fact alomost appears deeper clouds are starting to to get wrapped back around. Last night at 2 I also noticed a big anti-cyclonic feature had set up south of Sandy between her and the monsoonal trough (if that is the correct wording). That feature appeared to be limiting flow into the storm and almost cut off the flow it had been pulling from the deep Carribean. That feature has now appeared to be washed out and she seems to be pulling back together. Am I right on anything I am seeing? I am not a Met just have a desire to learn more about how these things work.

Dry air has worked in over the top of Sandy from the SW which is limiting the deep convection near the center to a lone thunderstorm or two on the northern side of the circulation. The wind field is expanding and while Sandy may "look" good in the visible images, the lack of deep convection over the center suggest the tropical cyclone is on "life support". This does not mean the threat is lessened upstream up the coast coast as the hurricane or TS will gradually begin to feed more on the jet stream dynamics and temperature gradients and not so much the warm water as its slowly transitions over toward an extra-tropical system.

[GCANE]

That flare blew up into a massive cell with off-the-scale rain rate; at hot-tower levels.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... ntic.0.jpg

Pretty close to the LLC.

Should raise the max core temp back up in altitude.

[stephen23]

I have a question for one of the Pro Mets. Can you kind of explain what is exactly going on with the storm at this time. Over the past two hours it seems to my un-trained eye to being looking a whole lot better then it has since around 2 am this morning. To me it appears to really be tightening up again. It also appears as if it has almost absorbed the ull over florida. The shear from that low appears to have almost let off, in fact alomost appears deeper clouds are starting to to get wrapped back around. Last night at 2 I also noticed a big anti-cyclonic feature had set up south of Sandy between her and the monsoonal trough (if that is the correct wording). That feature appeared to be limiting flow into the storm and almost cut off the flow it had been pulling from the deep Carribean. That feature has now appeared to be washed out and she seems to be pulling back together. Am I right on anything I am seeing? I am not a Met just have a desire to learn more about how these things work.

Dry air has worked in over the top of Sandy from the SW which is limiting the deep convection near the center to a lone thunderstorm or two on the northern side of the circulation. The wind field is expanding and while Sandy may "look" good in the visible images, the lack of deep convection over the center suggest the tropical cyclone is on "life support". This does not mean the threat is lessened upstream up the coast coast as the hurricane or TS will gradually begin to feed more on the jet stream dynamics and temperature gradients and not so much the warm water as its slowly transitions over toward an extra-tropical system.

Ok. Thank You

[Weatherguy173]

why is this still tropical?

[cycloneye]

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a statement.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurrican ... nts_e.html

Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:49 PM ADT Friday
26 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT Saturday.

This is an updated preliminary information statement to discuss
The potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing statements on
Sandy every 6 hours beginning 9 AM ADT Saturday morning.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy has been moving northward through the Northwestern
Bahamas today with winds in excess of 120 km/h. During the weekend
Sandy is forecast to continue to track north or northeastward while
remaining at or near hurricane strength. Sandy will gradually lose
some of its tropical characteristics during the next few days.
On Monday Sandy is expected to take a turn to the northwest toward
the United States East Coast. Current indications are that Sandy
will move inland on the United States East Coast on Tuesday as a very
large and powerful storm. There are various factors influencing the
evolution of the storm. As a result there is still a relatively high
degree of uncertainty in the impacts of the storm.

Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario
are likely to see the most rainfall from this system. These areas
will likely also be subject to strong and gusty winds as will
Southern Quebec and the Maritimes. Although it is too early to nail
down any specific values, people living in these areas are urged to
pay close attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre
and local weather forecasts and possible future warnings throughout
the weekend.

[Houstonia]

A quick Google search indicates that we have never had a presidential election delayed, including during the Civil War years.

If power is out on election day because of the storm I believe they would count the votes the old fashion way, paper vote and count by hand

Right... but what about states like NJ and PA which mostly use touchscreen? How will they even PRINT paper ballots if there is massive power outage?

The election issue is certainly one of the factors which in my mind is causing this storm to seem totally unreal in terms of its potential impacts.

BTW, in Googling a bit myself, I found a VERY interesting blog entry which goes into great depth in analyzing potential ways in which the storm could disrupt the election / affect the outcome. (It seems pretty neutral politically, not overtly partisan)

http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/ ... -election/

I haven't gone through all of these article, but maybe they can point in a direction:

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&q=%22sandy%22+and+%22elections%22&oq=%22sandy%22+and+%22elections%22&gs_l=news-cc.12..43j43i400.9888.9888.0.10802.1.1.0.0.0.0.63.63.1.1.0...0.0...1ac.1.Y5cvhMFiaw0

[HurrMark]

Dry air has worked in over the top of Sandy from the SW which is limiting the deep convection near the center to a lone thunderstorm or two on the northern side of the circulation. The wind field is expanding and while Sandy may "look" good in the visible images, the lack of deep convection over the center suggest the tropical cyclone is on "life support". This does not mean the threat is lessened upstream up the coast coast as the hurricane or TS will gradually begin to feed more on the jet stream dynamics and temperature gradients and not so much the warm water as its slowly transitions over toward an extra-tropical system.

I've seen that convective "triangle" on the north side before...that is not a healthy sign for a TC.

[chris_fit]

There is some kind of center mid/surface visible on radar now...

[WeatherGuesser]

If power is out on election day because of the storm I believe they would count the votes the old fashion way, paper vote and count by hand

That's assuming people could even get to the polling places if roads are closed from flooding.

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi tweets.
Sandy makes it to 78.7 before turning, I bet we see 50+ gusts!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Strongest winds of the day so far here in Hobe Sound, estimate 25-40+.
Sandy being so close and moving slowly west is a bit unnerving!

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Sandy

[HurrMark]

New forecast is in...still a hurricane but they are going on the T. S. bandwagon before reintensifying to a hurricane. Still forecast a Del. landfall.

[cycloneye]

5 PM track.

[Weatherguy173]

new track looks much different as it makes landfall, it makes a harder turn west then before.