ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

1887 to be exact

[Bocadude85]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
113 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012


FLZ172-173-242200-
/O.NEW.KMFL.HW.W.0001.120524T1713Z-120524T2200Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE
113 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE. THESE
WINDS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF CAUSING DOWNED POWER LINES AND
UPROOTING TREES. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO DANGEROUS FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
119 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-250400-
/O.NEW.KMFL.GL.W.0003.120524T1719Z-120525T0400Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
119 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

SEAS: SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 10
FOOT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

[Evil Jeremy]

In the event that it does develop.....when did we last have 2 pre-season tropical cyclones in the ATL?

1969, if you include TDs as "tropical cyclones".

[crimi481]

Possibly the Low center reforms of S.E. Coast - however -based on 1009 current position/direction -
If Ridging builds in over N. Fl - system could go North up center of State - and make a Louie into
Mid/N E. Gulf
Then -convection on East side -catches up to LLC. (however -pure speculation at this time)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

yep as quick as that little featured formed its falling apart. still the main low atm is over the keys.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed this loop up. It really looks like the center may be moving NE just off the coast. Hard to tell, since it's not defined.

[Riptide]

yep as quick as that little featured formed its falling apart. still the main low atm is over the keys.

Aric, it appears the circulation over the keys is stationary; or if it's moving...it's very slow.

[Aric Dunn]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed this loop up. It really looks like the center may be moving NE just off the coast. Hard to tell, since it's not defined.

its deceiving on satellite. but that feature is all but gone on radar and there are no surface winds to indicate it yet.

[gatorcane]

it looks the rain is going to end quickly for South Florida as drier air is being sucked in from the SW around the circulation. Most of the rain will stay over the Bahamas and east of Florida, though still some nice rain totals so far for the SE Coast of Florida.

All in all, still optimistic on a nice Memorial Day weekend here with alot of sunshine and a chance of rain in the afternoon each day.

[floridasun78]

i see weak low that was strong side want over dade and beach it got real bad on beach here wind were report to 61 mph in storms

[cycloneye]

From 2:05 PM EDT discussion of Special Feature 94L.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS THE N AND CURRENTLY IS IMPACTING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...SE FLORIDA...AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE
SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N78W TO
THE LOW AND CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 20N85W. MOST OF
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
CURRENTLY STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING CENTRAL
CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO FARTHER N ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 73W-80W. REPORTS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS POSSIBLE. SE FLORIDA
INCLUDING MIAMI...AND THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING FREEPORT HAVE ALSO
REPORTED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA AND THE
INCREASED RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO GET BETTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[jlauderdal]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
113 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012


FLZ172-173-242200-
/O.NEW.KMFL.HW.W.0001.120524T1713Z-120524T2200Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE
113 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE. THESE
WINDS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF CAUSING DOWNED POWER LINES AND
UPROOTING TREES. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO DANGEROUS FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
119 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-250400-
/O.NEW.KMFL.GL.W.0003.120524T1719Z-120525T0400Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
119 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

SEAS: SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 10
FOOT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

kids had a 1/2 day today, out in the pool swimmming, wind was going an hour ago, not much now...rain has ceased.

[Aric Dunn]

we may see another burst of convection closer to the llc sometime over the next few hours. looking at TPW and WV the moisture envelope has not all moved away from the LLC. especially in the low levels. mid and upper level dry air is moderate atm but there is a lot of convergence though.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[MGC]

This is a bit of a surprise.....was the chance near zero earlier this morning and now they jump the chances up to 40%. I've tried but I don't see a circulation SE of Miami on radar. I do see the circulation over Florida Bay. I still think this will take a while to organize considering the strong shear and dry air to the west of the system. If the shear relaxes Friday night/Saturday, and the circulation has moved into the Atlantic near the Gulf Stream then conditions could be right for something to form.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Time to lengthen hurricane season perhaps?

[cycloneye]

This is a bit of a surprise.....was the chance near zero earlier this morning and now they jump the chances up to 40%. I've tried but I don't see a circulation SE of Miami on radar. I do see the circulation over Florida Bay. I still think this will take a while to organize considering the strong shear and dry air to the west of the system. If the shear relaxes Friday night/Saturday, and the circulation has moved into the Atlantic near the Gulf Stream then conditions could be right for something to form.....MGC

FYI=NHC labeled 20% at 8:40 AM EDT STWO and then at 12:55 PM EDT they upped to 40%.

[CrazyC83]

Those winds can still do damage...this is basically a tropical storm without the circulation, so treat it as one!

[Hurricanehink]

Time to lengthen hurricane season perhaps?

We've had Andrea and Barry in 2007 (Barry was a low on May 31st that became a tropical cyclone on June 1st), Arthur in 2008, TD 1 in 2009 (plus the Gulf low that nearly became a tropical cyclone in May '09), and then this year we had the invest near the Azores that could be added afterward, Alberto, and 94L. That's five systems in the past ten years. For comparison, in the ten years prior to 1964 (when the season was pushed back from June 15th to June 1st), there was a tropical storm in 1956, 1957, 1958 (Alma), and 1959 (although Arlene formed in late May but lasted until early June) in the period from June 1st to June 14th. It'd come down to whether the cost justifies extending the Atlantic season back to May 15th (I can't see them going back any earlier), and since the EPAC already starts on the 15th, I don't think it'd be that much more (if any) to have the Atlantic season start at the same time. If 94L becomes Beryl, and that Azores invest gets added (unlikely that both happens, but you never know), then I think there may be calls to extend the season back.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Tampa mets sticking by the GFS runs on their long range discussion just issued this afternoon regarding the evolution of 94L:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012


LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DIFFER THIS MORNING WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS AREAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO CUBA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF INITIALLY MOVES THESE
FEATURES WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY THEN LIFTS
IT BACK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS THESE FEATURES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE GULF ON
MONDAY WHERE IT MEANDERS ABOUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL STICK
WITH IT SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES MOVE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THE
FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT/WET
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEX POP TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING...SO HAVE OPTED TO DEPICT 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD EACH DAY...DECREASING BACK INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE EACH NIGHT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM AND
RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN HIGHER IN LATER FORECASTS
IF BETTER CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODELS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.