EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
Plane is in the air. I can't post today so who wants to post the HDOBS?
15 KNHC 151304
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 02 20120615
125630 3020N 08903W 7166 02969 0158 +069 +036 329011 012 /// /// 03
125700 3019N 08905W 6935 03240 0156 +057 +017 323010 011 /// /// 03
125730 3017N 08906W 6723 03494 0158 +040 +009 337008 010 /// /// 03
125800 3016N 08907W 6541 03719 0163 +023 +005 010006 008 /// /// 03
125830 3015N 08908W 6376 03926 0167 +010 +000 035006 007 /// /// 03
125900 3013N 08910W 6216 04130 0169 -006 -008 046006 006 /// /// 03
125930 3012N 08911W 6056 04339 0165 -010 -010 020003 005 /// /// 05
130000 3010N 08913W 5880 04563 0149 -020 -020 134000 002 /// /// 05
130030 3009N 08914W 5723 04780 0144 -030 -030 172001 002 /// /// 05
130100 3007N 08915W 5591 04965 0144 -040 -040 130003 005 /// /// 05
130130 3006N 08917W 5462 05148 0232 -050 -050 118004 005 /// /// 05
130200 3004N 08918W 5313 05366 0243 -060 -060 298001 003 /// /// 05
130230 3003N 08919W 5204 05529 0253 -060 -060 347006 007 /// /// 05
130300 3001N 08921W 5115 05663 0258 -070 -070 000007 007 /// /// 05
130330 3000N 08922W 5034 05785 0262 -099 //// 348006 008 /// /// 05
130400 2958N 08924W 4941 05928 0268 -111 //// 344007 008 /// /// 05
130430 2957N 08925W 4848 06074 0274 -124 //// 335006 007 /// /// 05
130500 2955N 08926W 4738 06245 0280 -135 //// 314006 007 /// /// 05
130530 2953N 08928W 4635 06423 0292 -138 //// 312008 010 /// /// 05
130600 2952N 08929W 4574 06520 0297 -140 //// 308010 010 /// /// 05
$$
15 KNHC 151304
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 02 20120615
125630 3020N 08903W 7166 02969 0158 +069 +036 329011 012 /// /// 03
125700 3019N 08905W 6935 03240 0156 +057 +017 323010 011 /// /// 03
125730 3017N 08906W 6723 03494 0158 +040 +009 337008 010 /// /// 03
125800 3016N 08907W 6541 03719 0163 +023 +005 010006 008 /// /// 03
125830 3015N 08908W 6376 03926 0167 +010 +000 035006 007 /// /// 03
125900 3013N 08910W 6216 04130 0169 -006 -008 046006 006 /// /// 03
125930 3012N 08911W 6056 04339 0165 -010 -010 020003 005 /// /// 05
130000 3010N 08913W 5880 04563 0149 -020 -020 134000 002 /// /// 05
130030 3009N 08914W 5723 04780 0144 -030 -030 172001 002 /// /// 05
130100 3007N 08915W 5591 04965 0144 -040 -040 130003 005 /// /// 05
130130 3006N 08917W 5462 05148 0232 -050 -050 118004 005 /// /// 05
130200 3004N 08918W 5313 05366 0243 -060 -060 298001 003 /// /// 05
130230 3003N 08919W 5204 05529 0253 -060 -060 347006 007 /// /// 05
130300 3001N 08921W 5115 05663 0258 -070 -070 000007 007 /// /// 05
130330 3000N 08922W 5034 05785 0262 -099 //// 348006 008 /// /// 05
130400 2958N 08924W 4941 05928 0268 -111 //// 344007 008 /// /// 05
130430 2957N 08925W 4848 06074 0274 -124 //// 335006 007 /// /// 05
130500 2955N 08926W 4738 06245 0280 -135 //// 314006 007 /// /// 05
130530 2953N 08928W 4635 06423 0292 -138 //// 312008 010 /// /// 05
130600 2952N 08929W 4574 06520 0297 -140 //// 308010 010 /// /// 05
$$
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brunota2003
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Tropical Storm
brunota2003 wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Another EPac cyclone to issue a RI forecast on...but what to put?
Pros:
Moisture available to work with
Low shear
High oceanic heat content
System is coming together at a fairly rapid pace
Small size
Cons:
Will be approaching mountainous land over the next 24 hours
Possibility it could inhale drier air from the land
RI depends on whether the inner core can get together or not
Small size
This one will be a tight squeeze, as to whether Carlotta can reach RI status (defined as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period). I would personally prefer not even close, but I have to stick to the facts...and they point toward at least semi-rapid deepening. The main hiccup in my forecast is I have not seen my indicator pop up yet (though it looked like the beginnings of it may have been starting to form, after looking at different images). Assuming it was the beginnings, I'll start the clock at approximately 0130 UTC (9:30 pm EDT, 6/14). Adding 6 to 8 hours to that yields a time of 0730 to 0930 UTC (0330 to 0530 am EDT), and that is roughly when the actual RI should begin.
As far as the RI itself is concerned...I'm really not sure how much it'll strengthen (not enough data to go off of at the moment, imo), but I'll take a guess anyways. I'll go with 30 to 35 knots between now and the 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) advisory tomorrow night. The 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) advisory tonight has the winds at 55 knots...so a 30 to 35 knot increase would put the winds at 85 to 90 knots by then. The peak may come earlier than 0300 UTC, as by then Carlotta will be pushing pretty near the coast, which should help to reduce any further strengthening.
"Worries" behind the forecast:
Carlotta's inner core does not come together as forecast, causing only a modest increase in intensity (probably still on the order of 20 knots by 0300 UTC tomorrow, though). On the opposite end of the spectrum, Carlotta could intensify more than I think she will...and especially given her small size, the jump could be as big as 45 or 50 knots...as seen in other storms of a similar size that underwent RI. As it is, I would much rather overshoot the intensity, and she never become a hurricane.
Well, updating the forecast. I feel much more confident that at least minimum RI is going to occur in Carlotta, and i think recon will find a lot stronger system than it is now. On my phone, so sorry for any errors. I'm going to up the forecast to 40 to 45 knots now, only issues I still see is land interaction. 40 to 45 knots puts the intensity at 95 or 100 knots by 11 pm EDT tonight.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
Who wants to continue posting?
URNT15 KNHC 151334
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 05 20120615
132630 2842N 09033W 3599 08304 0382 -250 //// 299020 021 000 002 05
132700 2840N 09035W 3597 08310 0383 -255 //// 295022 023 000 001 05
132730 2838N 09037W 3600 08301 0381 -251 //// 287023 024 000 002 05
132800 2836N 09038W 3598 08304 0381 -250 //// 285024 026 001 001 01
132830 2834N 09040W 3598 08306 0383 -250 //// 283024 025 002 000 05
132900 2833N 09042W 3598 08308 0383 -250 //// 280025 025 002 001 01
132930 2831N 09044W 3600 08304 0383 -250 //// 283026 027 003 000 01
133000 2829N 09045W 3598 08306 0383 -248 //// 285026 028 002 000 01
133030 2827N 09047W 3597 08311 0383 -247 //// 283024 025 004 000 01
133100 2825N 09049W 3601 08304 0384 -248 //// 287024 025 003 000 01
133130 2823N 09051W 3595 08314 0385 -230 -230 285023 024 002 000 01
133200 2821N 09052W 3597 08312 0385 -230 -230 284024 024 002 000 01
133230 2819N 09054W 3599 08309 0386 -230 -230 285023 024 003 001 01
133300 2818N 09056W 3598 08309 0386 -230 -230 290023 024 004 000 01
133330 2816N 09058W 3599 08307 0386 -230 -230 288020 023 001 001 01
133400 2814N 09059W 3595 08313 0386 -230 -230 289021 022 000 002 05
133430 2812N 09101W 3597 08311 0385 -230 -230 289020 020 002 002 01
133500 2810N 09103W 3595 08316 0387 -230 -230 286023 023 002 002 01
133530 2808N 09105W 3598 08311 0386 -240 -240 284022 023 001 001 01
133600 2806N 09106W 3599 08310 0386 -240 -240 287022 023 001 000 05
URNT15 KNHC 151334
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 05 20120615
132630 2842N 09033W 3599 08304 0382 -250 //// 299020 021 000 002 05
132700 2840N 09035W 3597 08310 0383 -255 //// 295022 023 000 001 05
132730 2838N 09037W 3600 08301 0381 -251 //// 287023 024 000 002 05
132800 2836N 09038W 3598 08304 0381 -250 //// 285024 026 001 001 01
132830 2834N 09040W 3598 08306 0383 -250 //// 283024 025 002 000 05
132900 2833N 09042W 3598 08308 0383 -250 //// 280025 025 002 001 01
132930 2831N 09044W 3600 08304 0383 -250 //// 283026 027 003 000 01
133000 2829N 09045W 3598 08306 0383 -248 //// 285026 028 002 000 01
133030 2827N 09047W 3597 08311 0383 -247 //// 283024 025 004 000 01
133100 2825N 09049W 3601 08304 0384 -248 //// 287024 025 003 000 01
133130 2823N 09051W 3595 08314 0385 -230 -230 285023 024 002 000 01
133200 2821N 09052W 3597 08312 0385 -230 -230 284024 024 002 000 01
133230 2819N 09054W 3599 08309 0386 -230 -230 285023 024 003 001 01
133300 2818N 09056W 3598 08309 0386 -230 -230 290023 024 004 000 01
133330 2816N 09058W 3599 08307 0386 -230 -230 288020 023 001 001 01
133400 2814N 09059W 3595 08313 0386 -230 -230 289021 022 000 002 05
133430 2812N 09101W 3597 08311 0385 -230 -230 289020 020 002 002 01
133500 2810N 09103W 3595 08316 0387 -230 -230 286023 023 002 002 01
133530 2808N 09105W 3598 08311 0386 -240 -240 284022 023 001 001 01
133600 2806N 09106W 3599 08310 0386 -240 -240 287022 023 001 000 05
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 151344
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 06 20120615
133630 2804N 09108W 3598 08310 0387 -240 -240 290022 023 000 002 05
133700 2802N 09110W 3599 08309 0388 -240 -240 294022 023 001 002 05
133730 2800N 09112W 3598 08311 0388 -240 -240 297021 021 000 001 01
133800 2759N 09113W 3597 08316 0389 -240 -240 292021 021 000 001 01
133830 2757N 09115W 3598 08316 0390 -240 -240 291020 020 001 002 01
133900 2755N 09117W 3598 08316 0390 -240 -240 288017 020 001 002 01
133930 2753N 09118W 3597 08317 0391 -240 -240 286019 019 001 001 05
134000 2751N 09120W 3598 08316 0392 -240 -240 281018 019 000 001 01
134030 2749N 09122W 3599 08313 0392 -240 -240 289021 021 000 001 01
134100 2747N 09124W 3598 08318 0393 -240 -240 293022 022 000 001 01
134130 2745N 09125W 3597 08319 0393 -240 -240 293022 022 000 002 05
134200 2743N 09127W 3598 08316 0392 -240 -240 288020 021 000 002 05
134230 2742N 09129W 3598 08315 0392 -240 -240 283020 021 002 002 01
134300 2740N 09131W 3597 08318 0392 -240 -240 282021 021 001 002 01
134330 2738N 09132W 3595 08323 0393 -240 -240 279021 022 004 001 01
134400 2736N 09134W 3599 08314 0392 -240 -240 284021 022 007 000 01
134430 2734N 09136W 3598 08318 0393 -240 -240 292021 021 005 000 01
134500 2732N 09137W 3597 08319 0393 -240 -240 292020 020 004 001 01
134530 2730N 09139W 3598 08318 0394 -240 -240 295019 019 005 001 01
134600 2728N 09141W 3597 08320 0394 -240 -240 300018 019 006 001 01
$$
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 06 20120615
133630 2804N 09108W 3598 08310 0387 -240 -240 290022 023 000 002 05
133700 2802N 09110W 3599 08309 0388 -240 -240 294022 023 001 002 05
133730 2800N 09112W 3598 08311 0388 -240 -240 297021 021 000 001 01
133800 2759N 09113W 3597 08316 0389 -240 -240 292021 021 000 001 01
133830 2757N 09115W 3598 08316 0390 -240 -240 291020 020 001 002 01
133900 2755N 09117W 3598 08316 0390 -240 -240 288017 020 001 002 01
133930 2753N 09118W 3597 08317 0391 -240 -240 286019 019 001 001 05
134000 2751N 09120W 3598 08316 0392 -240 -240 281018 019 000 001 01
134030 2749N 09122W 3599 08313 0392 -240 -240 289021 021 000 001 01
134100 2747N 09124W 3598 08318 0393 -240 -240 293022 022 000 001 01
134130 2745N 09125W 3597 08319 0393 -240 -240 293022 022 000 002 05
134200 2743N 09127W 3598 08316 0392 -240 -240 288020 021 000 002 05
134230 2742N 09129W 3598 08315 0392 -240 -240 283020 021 002 002 01
134300 2740N 09131W 3597 08318 0392 -240 -240 282021 021 001 002 01
134330 2738N 09132W 3595 08323 0393 -240 -240 279021 022 004 001 01
134400 2736N 09134W 3599 08314 0392 -240 -240 284021 022 007 000 01
134430 2734N 09136W 3598 08318 0393 -240 -240 292021 021 005 000 01
134500 2732N 09137W 3597 08319 0393 -240 -240 292020 020 004 001 01
134530 2730N 09139W 3598 08318 0394 -240 -240 295019 019 005 001 01
134600 2728N 09141W 3597 08320 0394 -240 -240 300018 019 006 001 01
$$
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 151354
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 07 20120615
134630 2726N 09143W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 299018 019 004 001 05
134700 2724N 09144W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 303018 019 003 002 05
134730 2723N 09146W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 304019 020 002 001 01
134800 2721N 09148W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 301020 020 002 000 01
134830 2719N 09150W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 300019 020 003 001 05
134900 2717N 09151W 3598 08320 0396 -240 -240 300019 019 003 001 01
134930 2715N 09153W 3597 08323 0397 -240 -240 297019 019 003 001 01
135000 2713N 09155W 3597 08324 0397 -240 -240 299019 020 004 000 01
135030 2711N 09157W 3597 08324 0397 -230 -230 301019 019 002 000 01
135100 2709N 09158W 3598 08320 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 005 000 01
135130 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 003 001 01
135200 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0397 -230 -230 303020 020 007 000 01
135230 2703N 09204W 3599 08319 0396 -230 -230 305019 019 007 000 01
135300 2701N 09205W 3598 08322 0398 -230 -230 306019 020 004 001 01
135330 2659N 09207W 3597 08324 0398 -230 -230 303020 021 008 001 01
135400 2657N 09209W 3599 08321 0398 -230 -230 301021 022 008 001 01
135430 2655N 09211W 3597 08326 0399 -230 -230 300023 024 005 001 05
135500 2653N 09212W 3598 08322 0399 -230 -230 299022 023 003 001 01
135530 2651N 09214W 3598 08323 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 001 01
135600 2650N 09216W 3598 08326 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 000 01
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 07 20120615
134630 2726N 09143W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 299018 019 004 001 05
134700 2724N 09144W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 303018 019 003 002 05
134730 2723N 09146W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 304019 020 002 001 01
134800 2721N 09148W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 301020 020 002 000 01
134830 2719N 09150W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 300019 020 003 001 05
134900 2717N 09151W 3598 08320 0396 -240 -240 300019 019 003 001 01
134930 2715N 09153W 3597 08323 0397 -240 -240 297019 019 003 001 01
135000 2713N 09155W 3597 08324 0397 -240 -240 299019 020 004 000 01
135030 2711N 09157W 3597 08324 0397 -230 -230 301019 019 002 000 01
135100 2709N 09158W 3598 08320 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 005 000 01
135130 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 003 001 01
135200 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0397 -230 -230 303020 020 007 000 01
135230 2703N 09204W 3599 08319 0396 -230 -230 305019 019 007 000 01
135300 2701N 09205W 3598 08322 0398 -230 -230 306019 020 004 001 01
135330 2659N 09207W 3597 08324 0398 -230 -230 303020 021 008 001 01
135400 2657N 09209W 3599 08321 0398 -230 -230 301021 022 008 001 01
135430 2655N 09211W 3597 08326 0399 -230 -230 300023 024 005 001 05
135500 2653N 09212W 3598 08322 0399 -230 -230 299022 023 003 001 01
135530 2651N 09214W 3598 08323 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 001 01
135600 2650N 09216W 3598 08326 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 000 01
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 151404
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 08 20120615
135630 2648N 09217W 3597 08327 0401 -230 -230 301019 020 004 000 01
135700 2646N 09219W 3598 08327 0402 -240 -240 301017 019 003 001 01
135730 2644N 09221W 3598 08327 0402 -240 -240 302016 017 003 000 01
135800 2642N 09223W 3598 08326 0402 -240 -240 302017 017 005 000 01
135830 2640N 09224W 3597 08328 0402 -240 -240 300017 017 003 000 01
135900 2638N 09226W 3598 08327 0402 -240 -240 303016 016 005 000 01
135930 2636N 09228W 3598 08328 0403 -240 -240 305016 016 004 000 01
140000 2634N 09230W 3598 08326 0402 -240 -240 303016 016 004 001 01
140030 2632N 09231W 3598 08327 0401 -240 -240 303016 016 005 001 01
140100 2630N 09233W 3598 08326 0401 -240 -240 308014 015 005 000 01
140130 2628N 09235W 3597 08328 0401 -240 -240 305015 015 006 000 01
140200 2626N 09237W 3598 08324 0402 -240 -240 302014 015 006 000 01
140230 2624N 09238W 3598 08326 0402 -240 -240 300014 015 006 001 01
140300 2622N 09240W 3598 08327 0403 -240 -240 300014 014 006 000 01
140330 2620N 09242W 3597 08328 0410 -240 -240 293013 014 005 000 01
140400 2618N 09244W 3599 08352 0429 -240 -240 288012 013 003 001 01
140430 2616N 09245W 3598 08355 0430 -240 -240 284013 013 005 001 01
140500 2614N 09247W 3598 08355 0431 -240 -240 284013 013 006 000 01
140530 2612N 09249W 3598 08357 0432 -240 -240 283013 013 005 001 01
140600 2610N 09251W 3598 08358 0433 -240 -240 284013 014 007 000 01
$$
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 08 20120615
135630 2648N 09217W 3597 08327 0401 -230 -230 301019 020 004 000 01
135700 2646N 09219W 3598 08327 0402 -240 -240 301017 019 003 001 01
135730 2644N 09221W 3598 08327 0402 -240 -240 302016 017 003 000 01
135800 2642N 09223W 3598 08326 0402 -240 -240 302017 017 005 000 01
135830 2640N 09224W 3597 08328 0402 -240 -240 300017 017 003 000 01
135900 2638N 09226W 3598 08327 0402 -240 -240 303016 016 005 000 01
135930 2636N 09228W 3598 08328 0403 -240 -240 305016 016 004 000 01
140000 2634N 09230W 3598 08326 0402 -240 -240 303016 016 004 001 01
140030 2632N 09231W 3598 08327 0401 -240 -240 303016 016 005 001 01
140100 2630N 09233W 3598 08326 0401 -240 -240 308014 015 005 000 01
140130 2628N 09235W 3597 08328 0401 -240 -240 305015 015 006 000 01
140200 2626N 09237W 3598 08324 0402 -240 -240 302014 015 006 000 01
140230 2624N 09238W 3598 08326 0402 -240 -240 300014 015 006 001 01
140300 2622N 09240W 3598 08327 0403 -240 -240 300014 014 006 000 01
140330 2620N 09242W 3597 08328 0410 -240 -240 293013 014 005 000 01
140400 2618N 09244W 3599 08352 0429 -240 -240 288012 013 003 001 01
140430 2616N 09245W 3598 08355 0430 -240 -240 284013 013 005 001 01
140500 2614N 09247W 3598 08355 0431 -240 -240 284013 013 006 000 01
140530 2612N 09249W 3598 08357 0432 -240 -240 283013 013 005 001 01
140600 2610N 09251W 3598 08358 0433 -240 -240 284013 014 007 000 01
$$
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 151417
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 09 20120615
140630 2608N 09252W 3598 08358 0434 -240 -240 290013 014 008 000 01
140700 2606N 09254W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -240 289015 015 007 000 01
140730 2604N 09256W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -240 287015 015 008 000 01
140800 2602N 09257W 3598 08360 0434 -240 -240 286015 015 008 000 01
140830 2601N 09259W 3597 08360 0434 -240 -240 285014 015 007 000 01
140900 2559N 09301W 3598 08358 0433 -240 -240 284014 015 008 000 01
140930 2557N 09302W 3598 08359 0433 -240 -240 285015 015 008 000 01
141000 2555N 09304W 3597 08359 0433 -240 -240 284015 015 010 000 01
141030 2553N 09306W 3598 08356 0433 -240 -240 286016 016 010 000 01
141100 2551N 09308W 3598 08359 0433 -240 -240 283016 016 007 000 01
141130 2549N 09309W 3598 08356 0432 -248 -249 283016 017 011 000 00
141200 2547N 09311W 3598 08356 0432 -245 -249 287015 016 009 000 00
141230 2545N 09313W 3597 08359 0432 -246 -251 287016 017 009 001 00
141300 2543N 09314W 3598 08357 0432 -249 -252 282017 018 009 000 00
141330 2541N 09316W 3598 08356 0432 -250 -254 281018 018 010 000 00
141400 2539N 09318W 3598 08356 0433 -245 -256 283016 018 010 000 00
141430 2537N 09319W 3598 08357 0434 -245 -256 284015 015 011 000 00
141500 2535N 09321W 3598 08360 0435 -244 -257 281015 015 009 000 00
141530 2533N 09323W 3598 08360 0435 -241 -259 278015 015 008 001 00
141600 2532N 09324W 3599 08355 0434 -240 -259 276016 017 007 001 00
$$
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 09 20120615
140630 2608N 09252W 3598 08358 0434 -240 -240 290013 014 008 000 01
140700 2606N 09254W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -240 289015 015 007 000 01
140730 2604N 09256W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -240 287015 015 008 000 01
140800 2602N 09257W 3598 08360 0434 -240 -240 286015 015 008 000 01
140830 2601N 09259W 3597 08360 0434 -240 -240 285014 015 007 000 01
140900 2559N 09301W 3598 08358 0433 -240 -240 284014 015 008 000 01
140930 2557N 09302W 3598 08359 0433 -240 -240 285015 015 008 000 01
141000 2555N 09304W 3597 08359 0433 -240 -240 284015 015 010 000 01
141030 2553N 09306W 3598 08356 0433 -240 -240 286016 016 010 000 01
141100 2551N 09308W 3598 08359 0433 -240 -240 283016 016 007 000 01
141130 2549N 09309W 3598 08356 0432 -248 -249 283016 017 011 000 00
141200 2547N 09311W 3598 08356 0432 -245 -249 287015 016 009 000 00
141230 2545N 09313W 3597 08359 0432 -246 -251 287016 017 009 001 00
141300 2543N 09314W 3598 08357 0432 -249 -252 282017 018 009 000 00
141330 2541N 09316W 3598 08356 0432 -250 -254 281018 018 010 000 00
141400 2539N 09318W 3598 08356 0433 -245 -256 283016 018 010 000 00
141430 2537N 09319W 3598 08357 0434 -245 -256 284015 015 011 000 00
141500 2535N 09321W 3598 08360 0435 -244 -257 281015 015 009 000 00
141530 2533N 09323W 3598 08360 0435 -241 -259 278015 015 008 001 00
141600 2532N 09324W 3599 08355 0434 -240 -259 276016 017 007 001 00
$$
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 151424
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 10 20120615
141630 2530N 09326W 3597 08360 0434 -240 -260 271017 017 009 000 00
141700 2528N 09328W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -260 270017 018 009 000 00
141730 2526N 09329W 3598 08360 0434 -240 -261 269019 019 011 000 00
141800 2524N 09331W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -262 272019 019 013 000 00
141830 2522N 09333W 3598 08359 0435 -240 -263 273019 019 013 000 00
141900 2520N 09334W 3598 08361 0435 -240 -265 273018 019 014 002 00
141930 2518N 09336W 3598 08360 0434 -240 -266 275018 019 014 002 00
142000 2516N 09337W 3598 08360 0435 -236 -268 277018 018 010 001 00
142030 2515N 09339W 3598 08360 0434 -235 -268 279018 018 009 001 00
142100 2513N 09341W 3597 08361 0435 -235 -270 280018 018 010 001 00
142130 2511N 09342W 3598 08361 0437 -235 -270 278018 018 012 001 00
142200 2509N 09344W 3598 08363 0438 -235 -270 278017 018 011 001 00
142230 2507N 09346W 3599 08361 0438 -235 -270 278017 017 011 000 00
142300 2505N 09347W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -269 276017 017 008 001 00
142330 2503N 09349W 3598 08363 0439 -235 -269 273016 017 008 001 00
142400 2501N 09350W 3598 08364 0440 -235 -270 273017 017 012 000 00
142430 2459N 09352W 3598 08366 0441 -235 -270 275017 017 010 001 00
142500 2457N 09354W 3598 08364 0440 -235 -270 274017 017 011 001 00
142530 2456N 09355W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -270 272016 016 014 000 00
142600 2454N 09357W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -270 273016 016 012 001 00
$$
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 10 20120615
141630 2530N 09326W 3597 08360 0434 -240 -260 271017 017 009 000 00
141700 2528N 09328W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -260 270017 018 009 000 00
141730 2526N 09329W 3598 08360 0434 -240 -261 269019 019 011 000 00
141800 2524N 09331W 3598 08359 0434 -240 -262 272019 019 013 000 00
141830 2522N 09333W 3598 08359 0435 -240 -263 273019 019 013 000 00
141900 2520N 09334W 3598 08361 0435 -240 -265 273018 019 014 002 00
141930 2518N 09336W 3598 08360 0434 -240 -266 275018 019 014 002 00
142000 2516N 09337W 3598 08360 0435 -236 -268 277018 018 010 001 00
142030 2515N 09339W 3598 08360 0434 -235 -268 279018 018 009 001 00
142100 2513N 09341W 3597 08361 0435 -235 -270 280018 018 010 001 00
142130 2511N 09342W 3598 08361 0437 -235 -270 278018 018 012 001 00
142200 2509N 09344W 3598 08363 0438 -235 -270 278017 018 011 001 00
142230 2507N 09346W 3599 08361 0438 -235 -270 278017 017 011 000 00
142300 2505N 09347W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -269 276017 017 008 001 00
142330 2503N 09349W 3598 08363 0439 -235 -269 273016 017 008 001 00
142400 2501N 09350W 3598 08364 0440 -235 -270 273017 017 012 000 00
142430 2459N 09352W 3598 08366 0441 -235 -270 275017 017 010 001 00
142500 2457N 09354W 3598 08364 0440 -235 -270 274017 017 011 001 00
142530 2456N 09355W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -270 272016 016 014 000 00
142600 2454N 09357W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -270 273016 016 012 001 00
$$
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Aric Dunn
- Category 5
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They will likely find a 85kt hurricane at the least. hmm maybe it will be the first TS to major hurricane jump lol
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 151434
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 11 20120615
142630 2452N 09359W 3598 08363 0439 -235 -270 272015 016 015 000 00
142700 2450N 09400W 3598 08362 0438 -235 -271 273015 015 014 000 00
142730 2448N 09402W 3598 08363 0439 -235 -271 271015 015 016 000 00
142800 2446N 09403W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -271 269014 015 016 000 00
142830 2444N 09405W 3598 08363 0438 -235 -272 270014 014 013 001 00
142900 2442N 09407W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -272 267013 014 012 000 00
142930 2440N 09408W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -272 264013 014 014 000 00
143000 2438N 09410W 3598 08363 0439 -233 -272 267013 014 014 000 00
143030 2436N 09411W 3598 08364 0439 -230 -273 264014 014 012 001 00
143100 2434N 09413W 3598 08364 0439 -233 -274 264013 014 013 001 00
143130 2432N 09415W 3598 08365 0439 -230 -274 268013 014 013 000 00
143200 2431N 09416W 3598 08363 0439 -231 -275 268012 013 011 000 00
143230 2429N 09418W 3598 08364 0440 -230 -275 269013 013 014 000 00
143300 2427N 09420W 3597 08365 0440 -230 -276 269012 012 013 000 00
143330 2425N 09421W 3598 08364 0439 -230 -276 267011 012 012 001 00
143400 2423N 09423W 3598 08363 0439 -230 -277 262011 011 013 000 00
143430 2421N 09425W 3598 08364 0439 -232 -278 259010 011 013 000 00
143500 2419N 09426W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -278 255009 010 012 001 00
143530 2417N 09428W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -278 248008 009 013 001 00
143600 2415N 09429W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -278 246007 008 012 000 00
$$
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 11 20120615
142630 2452N 09359W 3598 08363 0439 -235 -270 272015 016 015 000 00
142700 2450N 09400W 3598 08362 0438 -235 -271 273015 015 014 000 00
142730 2448N 09402W 3598 08363 0439 -235 -271 271015 015 016 000 00
142800 2446N 09403W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -271 269014 015 016 000 00
142830 2444N 09405W 3598 08363 0438 -235 -272 270014 014 013 001 00
142900 2442N 09407W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -272 267013 014 012 000 00
142930 2440N 09408W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -272 264013 014 014 000 00
143000 2438N 09410W 3598 08363 0439 -233 -272 267013 014 014 000 00
143030 2436N 09411W 3598 08364 0439 -230 -273 264014 014 012 001 00
143100 2434N 09413W 3598 08364 0439 -233 -274 264013 014 013 001 00
143130 2432N 09415W 3598 08365 0439 -230 -274 268013 014 013 000 00
143200 2431N 09416W 3598 08363 0439 -231 -275 268012 013 011 000 00
143230 2429N 09418W 3598 08364 0440 -230 -275 269013 013 014 000 00
143300 2427N 09420W 3597 08365 0440 -230 -276 269012 012 013 000 00
143330 2425N 09421W 3598 08364 0439 -230 -276 267011 012 012 001 00
143400 2423N 09423W 3598 08363 0439 -230 -277 262011 011 013 000 00
143430 2421N 09425W 3598 08364 0439 -232 -278 259010 011 013 000 00
143500 2419N 09426W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -278 255009 010 012 001 00
143530 2417N 09428W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -278 248008 009 013 001 00
143600 2415N 09429W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -278 246007 008 012 000 00
$$
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Tropical Storm
WTPZ33 KNHC 151438
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE CARLOTTA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO
10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO
200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE CARLOTTA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO
10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO
200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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Disco out now
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151438
TCDEP3
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND
EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.
AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF
THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151438
TCDEP3
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND
EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.
AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF
THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
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Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?
Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
The above is solely my opinion and not a professional forecast.
Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
The above is solely my opinion and not a professional forecast.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: CARLOTTA - Recon
I have to go,so who wants to continue?
000
URNT15 KNHC 151444
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 12 20120615
143630 2413N 09431W 3598 08363 0438 -235 -278 254006 007 013 000 00
143700 2411N 09433W 3598 08364 0438 -235 -279 257006 006 012 000 00
143730 2409N 09434W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -277 254006 006 010 001 00
143800 2407N 09436W 3598 08363 0438 -233 -277 252006 006 010 001 00
143830 2405N 09438W 3598 08363 0438 -232 -278 247006 007 013 000 00
143900 2403N 09439W 3598 08363 0438 -230 -278 246006 007 012 001 00
143930 2401N 09441W 3597 08364 0438 -230 -278 242006 007 010 001 00
144000 2359N 09442W 3598 08361 0437 -230 -279 239006 007 012 001 00
144030 2357N 09444W 3598 08363 0437 -230 -280 245006 007 012 000 00
144100 2355N 09446W 3598 08363 0438 -230 -281 246006 007 013 001 00
144130 2353N 09447W 3598 08364 0439 -230 -281 239007 007 012 000 00
144200 2351N 09449W 3598 08364 0440 -230 -281 237006 007 012 001 00
144230 2349N 09451W 3598 08366 0440 -230 -281 240007 007 010 001 00
144300 2347N 09452W 3598 08365 0440 -230 -282 242005 007 014 000 00
144330 2346N 09454W 3598 08366 0440 -230 -282 246004 005 013 000 00
144400 2344N 09456W 3598 08366 0441 -233 -282 249003 004 013 000 00
144430 2342N 09457W 3596 08371 0442 -233 -284 240003 003 013 000 00
144500 2340N 09459W 3597 08370 0442 -230 -285 255003 004 011 001 00
144530 2338N 09501W 3598 08364 0441 -230 -285 269004 004 013 001 00
144600 2336N 09502W 3598 08367 0441 -230 -286 276004 004 013 000 00
000
URNT15 KNHC 151444
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 12 20120615
143630 2413N 09431W 3598 08363 0438 -235 -278 254006 007 013 000 00
143700 2411N 09433W 3598 08364 0438 -235 -279 257006 006 012 000 00
143730 2409N 09434W 3598 08364 0439 -235 -277 254006 006 010 001 00
143800 2407N 09436W 3598 08363 0438 -233 -277 252006 006 010 001 00
143830 2405N 09438W 3598 08363 0438 -232 -278 247006 007 013 000 00
143900 2403N 09439W 3598 08363 0438 -230 -278 246006 007 012 001 00
143930 2401N 09441W 3597 08364 0438 -230 -278 242006 007 010 001 00
144000 2359N 09442W 3598 08361 0437 -230 -279 239006 007 012 001 00
144030 2357N 09444W 3598 08363 0437 -230 -280 245006 007 012 000 00
144100 2355N 09446W 3598 08363 0438 -230 -281 246006 007 013 001 00
144130 2353N 09447W 3598 08364 0439 -230 -281 239007 007 012 000 00
144200 2351N 09449W 3598 08364 0440 -230 -281 237006 007 012 001 00
144230 2349N 09451W 3598 08366 0440 -230 -281 240007 007 010 001 00
144300 2347N 09452W 3598 08365 0440 -230 -282 242005 007 014 000 00
144330 2346N 09454W 3598 08366 0440 -230 -282 246004 005 013 000 00
144400 2344N 09456W 3598 08366 0441 -233 -282 249003 004 013 000 00
144430 2342N 09457W 3596 08371 0442 -233 -284 240003 003 013 000 00
144500 2340N 09459W 3597 08370 0442 -230 -285 255003 004 011 001 00
144530 2338N 09501W 3598 08364 0441 -230 -285 269004 004 013 001 00
144600 2336N 09502W 3598 08367 0441 -230 -286 276004 004 013 000 00
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Aric Dunn
- Category 5
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Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?
[img]http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9050/193kg.jpg[/mg]
Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
The above is solely my opinion and not a professional forecast.
I just mentioned it on the previous page. its likely they will find at least 100 mph. in a few hours when they get there it could be a major.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?
Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
The above is solely my opinion and not a professional forecast.
If it becomes an MH at landfall, it will be the earliest landfall MH in EPAC history, breaking the record by two months.
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SouthDadeFish
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