ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[somethingfunny]

Hmmm... I've seen worse...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 80%.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

[hurricanes1234]

Good. It's taking advantage of those warm SSTs and light shear. Maybe a TD at 11 AM for the earliest.

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[OuterBanker]

All of a sudden I can't get the "Gordons Fisherman" diddy out of my head.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Comparison from
4:30pm




to 9:00am


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A majority of the hurricane models brings this up to at least Category 1 status. In fact, the HWRF makes it a Category 4.

The Azores need to prepare for a strong tropical storm at least.

[hurricanes1234]

Definitely becoming better defined. The convection is now wrapping nicely around the center of the system. This actually resembles a tropical storm. I'd say by the 2 PM update, the storm would be at least 90%, but I won't be surprised if it is upgraded to a TC by then.

______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

Well, I've seen systems that were at TS intensity that have not looked this good.....any bets at a 5pm upgrade?...............MGC

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW.

[wyq614]

Will it be already extratropical when affect Azores Is.?

[ozonepete]

Will it be already extratropical when affect Azores Is.?

It's too early to tell. Once the NHC starts advisories on it, probably this evening, they will indicate how close it may come to the Azores and what type of system they expect it to be by then.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Will this be a subtropical cyclone?

[ozonepete]

Will this be a subtropical cyclone?

No. It looks very tropical right now. It could become extratropical or post tropical a few days from now after it develops, if it develops.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
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[cycloneye]

The official word about an upgrade will come between 4:30 PM EDT and 5:00 PM EDT,so we will wait for that if it occurs.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al082012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208151933
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 082012.ren

[AnnularCane]

93L gets renumbered and nobody says a word? Or is everybody waiting for it to be official?

[Macrocane]

I think this will be an interesting system to watch, systems in the subtropics can be surprising sometimes.

[wxman57]

Looks like shear increases significantly along its path. May not last long and it won't affect any land areas.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 55.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



WTNT43 KNHC 152049
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
ENOUGH PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
COLD...THE CONVECTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE 18Z
CLASSIFICATIONS. ALSO...A RECENT UW-CIMSS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE INDICATES THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/16 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
CAPTURED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION THAT IS SURROUNDED
BY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
FAVORABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND IN A
LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE HURRICANE STATUS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BELOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL
WHICH SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND...
THEREFORE...SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 31.6N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 33.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 34.6N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 35.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 35.2N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 36.6N 29.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 38.8N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TheEuropean]

Looks like it may be torn apart by shear shortly. I don't see much point in calling it a depression. Won't last very long and won't affect anyone.

Looking at the same system? I think this one has a good chance to become a storm or more...

[hurricanes1234]

TD Eight has formed!