ATL: SANDY - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

60 Hr

[DESTRUCTION5]

66 he really starts to expand..

[DESTRUCTION5]

72hr maybe a few miles east of 06z

[deltadog03]

Looks like the ridging to the north of Sandy could hold this close to the coast of FL. At hour 72 its starting to get "attached" to the mean trof swinging East over the eastern US

[DESTRUCTION5]

78 hr creeping

[DESTRUCTION5]

84 hrs Man erosion on EC FL gonnna be bad if this holds up..Looks due east?

[deltadog03]

Ya, its close....

[DESTRUCTION5]

90 Hrs ..Making waves..

[Aric Dunn]

if you watch the loop. you can definitely see it respond to some ridging building back as it enters back over water after cuba. how much will determine florida impacts.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[blp]

Got this off another forum. If you are in Florida it kind of makes you a little uneasy to see this trend from yesterday to today.

[gatorcane]

if you watch the loop. you can definitely see it respond to some ridging building back as it enters back over water after cuba. how much will determine florida impacts.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

What's more concerning is that it just takes a few wobbles the models cant' predict or just a little bit more ridging as you mentioend to put it close enough to the SE Florida coastline to create some serious impacts. I would say things still look OK for Florida but not quite as good as yesterday.

[DESTRUCTION5]

120hr...Recurve Cancel?

[DESTRUCTION5]

144hr..Movement is minimal to say the least..

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps has come west some more..
just about between andros and se florida then over western part of grand bahams. ... thats only I think 90miles from PB

yeah that cant be much more than about 90 to hundred miles offshore. that close.

[DESTRUCTION5]

174..Stoppin here....No Hook in GFS ..Holds its ground..

[Bocadude85]

nogaps has come west some more..
just about between andros and se florida then over western part of grand bahams. ... thats only I think 90miles from PB

yeah that cant be much more than about 90 to hundred miles offshore. that close.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Grand Bahama is about 60 miles from us.

[Aric Dunn]

174..Stoppin here....No Hook in GFS ..Holds its ground..
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical174.gif[/ig]

lets see if any more of the ensemble members come back the coast. each run has shown more coming back.

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS has been very consistent with it getting extremely close to South Florida, GFS is still east of the NOGAPs but has shifted west since yesterday. The 12Z GFS has not shifted west from the 06Z which is good. What will the 12Z Euro do? It was showing that ridging building in on the 12Z yesterday with Sandy getting very close to SE Florida also.

[Hurricaneman]

The fact that the GFS is arguing with itself tells me to lend less creedence than the Euro which is basically in agreement with itself and the other globals which IMO the Euro, Nogaps, and GGEM should be given the most creedence due to not being an outlier

[Weatherguy173]

why is it that some of the ensemble models for sandy hit the east coast? how reliable do you think those ensemble models are?