ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherguy173]

i live in northeast nj, what do you think the percentage chance i lose power is ? i have above ground wires.

[CrazyC83]

The ECMWF hit is worse for NYC in terms of surge, too. The winds will be primed to funnel water straight down the Long Island Sound, as well as from the south straight into the bottleneck of NYC.

I wouldn't let your guard down either, as either the downslope from the Tug Hill or the St. Lawrence River could cause significant damage where you are too...models show hurricane conditions not far above the surface.

[CrazyC83]

i live in northeast nj, what do you think the percentage chance i lose power is ? i have above ground wires.

Probably at least 70% even if the worst of the winds miss you, maybe as high as 90% if the area is full of trees.

[Stephanie]

i live in northeast nj, what do you think the percentage chance i lose power is ? i have above ground wires.

Probably at least 70% even if the worst of the winds miss you, maybe as high as 90% if the area is full of trees.

That's me and I'm in the southwestern part of the state, just 15 miles south of Philadelphia.

[brunota2003]

The ECMWF hit is worse for NYC in terms of surge, too. The winds will be primed to funnel water straight down the Long Island Sound, as well as from the south straight into the bottleneck of NYC.

I wouldn't let your guard down either, as either the downslope from the Tug Hill or the St. Lawrence River could cause significant damage where you are too...models show hurricane conditions not far above the surface.

I live in a solid structure, so I'm not too worried about damage to the building itself. I will have my camera charged up, so if it gets interesting at all, I can get some footage. My main concerns are possible power outages, and the fact I'm *supposed* to turn in my gear Wednesday That'll be frustrating if it delays me from doing that. We have had funneling effects before, especially during the spring, with gusts up into the 60s with no problems...HOWEVER, those came from the usual direction of SW. NWS Buffalo's big concern is that these winds will be coming from a direction we hardly ever get strong winds from, and that, combined with all the rain we're supposed to get from the front this weekend into next week, is what will bring down the trees.

And flooding...apparently by Monday, they are expecting most area rivers and streams to be between Action Stage and Moderate Flooding...and rain is forecast all the way through Friday!

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOW MULTIPLE RIVERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RISING TO BETWEEN ACTION AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGES BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

[Stephanie]

On other boards, I'm seeing people say they're tired of the hype and stressed out by it and are just going to sit back and wait it out.
Probably not a real good idea depending on where they live.

I spoke to many of my friends who live near the coast in Ocean City Maryland or Coastal Delaware today. The level of concern today is NOTHING like Irene last year. I'm not really sure why, but most of them were pretty scared and evacuated prior to Irene coming through. Most of them were not nearly as worried about this one...worried but not "i'm outta here" mode.

I live about 10 miles from the ocean and the mood is totally different this time around. 48 hours before Irene there were gas outages, evacuation notices for coastal locations, and panic. Not so this time. I'm really curious if the Irene hype is to blame. It shouldnt be, but might be.

I totally agree. The concern is nothing like it was with Irene and I've heard interviews that people have heard this before and aren't concerned. These people live along the NJ shoreline. My supermarket was busy, but it was more like a prep for a snowstorm.

[ozonepete]

The ECMWF hit is worse for NYC in terms of surge, too. The winds will be primed to funnel water straight down the Long Island Sound, as well as from the south straight into the bottleneck of NYC.

You are exactly right, bru, as usual. That is a nightmare scenario for new York City and will fill up a lot of subway tunnels.

[Smurfwicked]

man it's quiet in here....you wouldn't know that there is a monster of a storm about to rack-up millions of dollars in damage and probably take several more lives......

Yes, I too have been surprised by the slow activity here. I know a large percentage of posters on the board are from FL and TX which are not threatened (though of course FL had watches...). But the quiet here is eerie.

I've been wondering, maybe it's because October is a busier time of year for many people than August, and that people have less time to track storms, but Wilma was in October, and had much more activity here. What's the deal?

I'm in the business of Survival & Disaster Preparedness and have an obligation to monitor anything that is possibly impending doom for others closely. I have many online friends, contacts and associates that could be affected by Sandy and I've tried to my best to relay the potential threat this storm might be for them.

As a Texas gulf coast resident I monitor the tropics during the season and I might not post much but I come to storm2k to get all my information regarding tropical weather. Over the years I've gained much respect for the pro mets & other dedicated contributors here and I am thankful for them being here to keep people like me so well informed.

Honestly the impression I get from many people I've socialized with online that is from areas that may be affected is that they lack a good understanding of the actual threat. Far too many people out there are either poorly informed or just don't see the importance in having the information.

[cycloneye]

This is from Weather Channel senior met Stu Ostro.

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct 26, 2012 7:39 pm ET

SANDY

- After tragically affecting the Greater Antilles with dozens of fatalities, Sandy's core is beginning to pull north of the Bahamas as the western fringe brushes the Atlantic coast of Florida with high surf and gusty winds, and then will do so along the coast of the Carolinas this weekend along with some bands of heavy rain.

- Then all signs continue to point to an extraordinary combination of meteorological ingredients coming together to produce a major and potentially historic storm in the northeastern states, with the peak being on Tuesday after Sandy makes an unusual turn sharply back toward the coast. There are no longer any model forecasts that portray a track in which Sandy goes out to sea and misses the U.S. Assuming no future substantive changes in the overall scenario, the main forecast focus from this point forward will be to hone in on the local details as the storm's arrival gets closer.

- An important aspect of Sandy will be its size. The massive breadth of its circulation will produce a much wider scope of impacts than if it were a tiny storm, and some of them will extend far inland.

- That expansion has begun while Sandy's maximum wind speeds have decreased for now, as it has undergone the expected commingling with the jet stream and acquisition of "hybrid" with characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical cyclones. The reason for forecasters' expectations of such a significant event despite it not being as intense as when it was in the Caribbean is that enlargement of the storm, which is already big and will further expand, along with models' indications that it will get a boost of additional energy as it heads north toward such a highly-populated area. It's a complicated weather system, but no matter what the official designation - hurricane, tropical storm, or "post-tropical" - Sandy should be taken seriously.

- Effects are expected to include strong, gusty winds with widespread tree damage and long-duration power outages, coastal flooding from storm surge along with large battering waves on top of that and beach erosion, local flooding from rainfall, and possibly heavy snow accumulations over the central Appalachians.

[Stephanie]

man it's quiet in here....you wouldn't know that there is a monster of a storm about to rack-up millions of dollars in damage and probably take several more lives......

Yes, I too have been surprised by the slow activity here. I know a large percentage of posters on the board are from FL and TX which are not threatened (though of course FL had watches...). But the quiet here is eerie.

I've been wondering, maybe it's because October is a busier time of year for many people than August, and that people have less time to track storms, but Wilma was in October, and had much more activity here. What's the deal?

It's the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast and we have not had a storm stare us down like this in decades. Irene was the last one and people only remember it as it went "bust" and interrupted people's vacations. It's like it's being looked upon as a Nor'easter. It's frightening the things I've been hearing as well.

[ozonepete]

Check out the windfield here from the two model outputs today. Australian time.

http://i207.photobucket.com/albums/bb31 ... 6498_n.jpg

Taken from our Facebook Page Oz Cyclone Chasers

Hey there Oz, I meant to welcome you recently but forgot. A real pleasure to have you on here. It's clear you are a fanatic for these storms like we are.

Your post is an excellent illustration of the difference between the two models and what the results would be in NYC (I still live here). Just a little more elaboration though: The ECMWF is the worst case for us both for wind and storm surge damage. But the GFS takes the hurricane center west and southwestward after crossing us, with the center then meandering southwest of us for many hours before starting to turn back to the northeast, in which case the winds would shift to south and southwest over us and bring in a really high surge anyway. Honestly, I've lived through a number of tropical cyclones here but this one, with its angle of approach and slower motion makes me really nervous.

[brunota2003]

The ECMWF hit is worse for NYC in terms of surge, too. The winds will be primed to funnel water straight down the Long Island Sound, as well as from the south straight into the bottleneck of NYC.

You are exactly right, bru, as usual. That is a nightmare scenario for new York City and will fill up a lot of subway tunnels.

Looking at the models, with ECMWF occasionally visiting VA to Delaware, and GFS up near Long Island, I'm afraid that Sandy will end up splitting the middle of the proverbial uprights...which would put her hitting somewhere near southern to mid New Jersey. What kind of surge would the different areas be looking at? I know it is a worst case scenario, but as far as potential levels go?

And I have learned a lot here on S2K over the years It sure beats not knowing at all what is going on, and why. Learning things allows me to make my own choices, based off of the various opinions and information! And helps with learning the various threats I may, or may not, face. Who could ask for a better group of people to learn with, too?

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

I would be nervous too mate ( OZONEPETE). Considering an impact like this has not occurred in recent generations, we do not know what to expect. Like you have said, the storm surge is going to be a real worry for alot of people. But to have a possible storm surge in a high density populated area, its just unthinkable what could happen. Myself and alot of Australia are praying for you guys. The news on this Storm is only just hitting the media here now.

Anyway thanks for your thoughts on the two different models. I was just gonna post 3 more pictures from the ECMWF model in high res just to add to the thread if thats cool

38 hours ( notice the size of the expected wind field from this model! )


75 hours ( interaction with the trough must happen around this time, intensification begins as it turns more westward )


90 hours ( 70+ Knots sustained winds on landfall ) not good......

[brunota2003]

And, out of curiosity of the older members here, does anyone else think this kind of feels like the build up to Katrina? I know that the media is running around screaming the sky is falling (not really like Katrina, from what I remember), and not saying the hype is a bad thing, either...but the wording coming from the NWS, the pro-mets being seriously concerned, etc just kind of makes it eerily similar? The exception being that they aren't calling for sure death and destruction of anyone or anything outside, like NWS New Orleans did.

[jeff]

i live in northeast nj, what do you think the percentage chance i lose power is ? i have above ground wires.

Very Very high...99%

[jeff]

And, out of curiosity of the older members here, does anyone else think this kind of feels like the build up to Katrina? I know that the media is running around screaming the sky is falling (not really like Katrina, from what I remember), and not saying the hype is a bad thing, either...but the wording coming from the NWS, the pro-mets being seriously concerned, etc just kind of makes it eerily similar? The exception being that they aren't calling for sure death and destruction of anyone or anything outside, like NWS New Orleans did.

The HLS for Katrina from Slidell is what was needed to get people to respond to the impending danger...a 25-30 foot storm surge and 140-150mph winds at the time the statement was issued. We are not dealing with that in this case, but it will likely be a new "bad" or new "benchmark" storm for those that go through the area to the N of where the center moves inland where the Atlantic will plow inland. Beach erosion will be incredible and coastal damage from surge and massive wave action extreme.

[gatorcane]

Really curious to see what happens when Sandy starts to interact with the trough moving towards the east coast. If the models are right she is going to get a big burst of energy. Are those in the northeast taking this storm seriously? Reading through some posts seems like members are worried about that. While Irene was mostly a rain event, this one has a chance of becoming a wind event and could be much worse than Irene.

[CrazyC83]

The ECMWF hit is worse for NYC in terms of surge, too. The winds will be primed to funnel water straight down the Long Island Sound, as well as from the south straight into the bottleneck of NYC.

I wouldn't let your guard down either, as either the downslope from the Tug Hill or the St. Lawrence River could cause significant damage where you are too...models show hurricane conditions not far above the surface.

I live in a solid structure, so I'm not too worried about damage to the building itself. I will have my camera charged up, so if it gets interesting at all, I can get some footage. My main concerns are possible power outages, and the fact I'm *supposed* to turn in my gear Wednesday That'll be frustrating if it delays me from doing that. We have had funneling effects before, especially during the spring, with gusts up into the 60s with no problems...HOWEVER, those came from the usual direction of SW. NWS Buffalo's big concern is that these winds will be coming from a direction we hardly ever get strong winds from, and that, combined with all the rain we're supposed to get from the front this weekend into next week, is what will bring down the trees.

And flooding...apparently by Monday, they are expecting most area rivers and streams to be between Action Stage and Moderate Flooding...and rain is forecast all the way through Friday!

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOW MULTIPLE RIVERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RISING TO BETWEEN ACTION AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGES BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

The easterly flow means I am at serious risk of funnelling as well. Given the extreme wind profiles, we could easily see gusts over hurricane force I believe.

[CrazyC83]

On other boards, I'm seeing people say they're tired of the hype and stressed out by it and are just going to sit back and wait it out.
Probably not a real good idea depending on where they live.

I spoke to many of my friends who live near the coast in Ocean City Maryland or Coastal Delaware today. The level of concern today is NOTHING like Irene last year. I'm not really sure why, but most of them were pretty scared and evacuated prior to Irene coming through. Most of them were not nearly as worried about this one...worried but not "i'm outta here" mode.

I live about 10 miles from the ocean and the mood is totally different this time around. 48 hours before Irene there were gas outages, evacuation notices for coastal locations, and panic. Not so this time. I'm really curious if the Irene hype is to blame. It shouldnt be, but might be.

I totally agree. The concern is nothing like it was with Irene and I've heard interviews that people have heard this before and aren't concerned. These people live along the NJ shoreline. My supermarket was busy, but it was more like a prep for a snowstorm.

Where I live in Canada, people LAUGHED at me when I said there was a hurricane coming. Yet the models show immense wind on Monday night into Tuesday, with a peak Tuesday morning perhaps as high as 85 mph.

[wxman57]

i live in northeast nj, what do you think the percentage chance i lose power is ? i have above ground wires.

I'd say at least 95%. Hard to imagine that any part of the state will escape at least some power outages. No power for weeks for some. Prepare!!!