ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

A couple images of the "carnage" from work


After a rain band


(not staged)

The second image is what I consider the overall impact for central Florida by Sandy sans a slim few areas.

[HarryPotter]

NWS Met on the conference call today said that the surge will build and last for several high tide cycles. The east winds will help to prevent or lessen the emptying of LI Sound, and thus will cause tidal piling. Said about a 1-2ft "surge" first high tide, maybe 3-4ft next, and so on...

So I agree that for NYC, surge is going to be the big threat.

I'm worried about the rain where I am...and then wind causing trees in softened ground to come down. I'm far enough from the coast that surge won't be an issue...

[brunota2003]

Close to 2,000 Americans DIED in Hurricane Katrina, A major city was leveled to the ground. This storm has the POTENTIAL to be historic, but every storm that threatens the US needs to stop being compared to K. Unless you lived through it, stop comparing models to it

I didn't say that Sandy was going to be Katrina. I didn't say it was going to kill 2,000 people...or even 200. I didn't compare it to what Katrina actually did at all. I compared how everyone is acting, including the NWS, between the storms. Both storms left knots in peoples' guts prior to landfall, both storms you feel something bad is going to happen, but you don't know (and won't know) what until it happens. This storm, unlike others, is dragging by for me. It seems like it's been a week since it hit Jamaica for me, when in reality it has only been a couple days. The build up to Katrina was the same way for myself. Both had the potential to be major disasters in their own respective ways, Katrina went on and did that. Will Sandy? Well, we'll know in a week or so.

Sorry to offend anyone with that, it was definitely NOT the intent. I just feel the same way now, as I did before Katrina...and I was wondering if anyone else was feeling the same. And for the record, I didn't have the same feeling prior to Irene.

[galaxy401]

To be clear, I'm not predicting widespread destruction from winds when Sandy makes landfall. Inland winds will average 40-60 mph. That'a enough to produce about 100% power outages due to downed trees, power lines and power poles, as well as significant damage to signs and very weak structures (like carports). Buildings/homes should remain intact.

The storm tide will be another factor. It's hard to predict just how high the tides may get, as typical storm surge models like SLOSH won't work with a sub or extratropical storm like Sandy. Don't judge its surge potential by its max winds at landfall, it's wind field SIZE that determines surge height more than max winds. If Sandy hits in the right spot, it could flood NY City, including the subways.

If you live within 150 miles of the coast up there, then prepare for prolonged power outages. The hardest hit areas may lose power for weeks. Prepare!

To add about the storm tide,another factor will be the new moon on Monday.

You mean full moon right?

Is it possible for the outer rainbands of Sandy to reach IL when it makes landfall or am I too far west?

[cycloneye]

To be clear, I'm not predicting widespread destruction from winds when Sandy makes landfall. Inland winds will average 40-60 mph. That'a enough to produce about 100% power outages due to downed trees, power lines and power poles, as well as significant damage to signs and very weak structures (like carports). Buildings/homes should remain intact.

The storm tide will be another factor. It's hard to predict just how high the tides may get, as typical storm surge models like SLOSH won't work with a sub or extratropical storm like Sandy. Don't judge its surge potential by its max winds at landfall, it's wind field SIZE that determines surge height more than max winds. If Sandy hits in the right spot, it could flood NY City, including the subways.

If you live within 150 miles of the coast up there, then prepare for prolonged power outages. The hardest hit areas may lose power for weeks. Prepare!

To add about the storm tide,another factor will be the new moon on Monday.

You mean full moon right?

Is it possible for the outer rainbands of Sandy to reach IL when it makes landfall or am I too far west?

Yes full.

[ozonepete]

To be clear, I'm not predicting widespread destruction from winds when Sandy makes landfall. Inland winds will average 40-60 mph. That'a enough to produce about 100% power outages due to downed trees, power lines and power poles, as well as significant damage to signs and very weak structures (like carports). Buildings/homes should remain intact.

The storm tide will be another factor. It's hard to predict just how high the tides may get, as typical storm surge models like SLOSH won't work with a sub or extratropical storm like Sandy. Don't judge its surge potential by its max winds at landfall, it's wind field SIZE that determines surge height more than max winds. If Sandy hits in the right spot, it could flood NY City, including the subways.

If you live within 150 miles of the coast up there, then prepare for prolonged power outages. The hardest hit areas may lose power for weeks. Prepare!

Wxman thanks for your very smart and sober posts about this. I can only agree with you strongly. Here is the link to a very detailed and well thought out map of storm surge flooding potential for NYC's 5 boroughs. I also attached a static version. http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/p ... nglish.pdf

Please keep in mind what wxman has said many times on here and especially now for Sandy: you cannot use the standard hurricane categories to predict surge from storms like this because they may (like Sandy) be much larger and move more slowly than a stronger storm, thus heavily increasing the amount of surge that may be experienced. I would say that for what Sandy is expected to bring here in the NYC area, use category 2 as a guide. As you can see, a lot of southern NYC would go under water, including JFK airport (lower right).

[monicaei]

Close to 2,000 Americans DIED in Hurricane Katrina, A major city was leveled to the ground. This storm has the POTENTIAL to be historic, but every storm that threatens the US needs to stop being compared to K. Unless you lived through it, stop comparing models to it

I didn't say that Sandy was going to be Katrina. I didn't say it was going to kill 2,000 people...or even 200. I didn't compare it to what Katrina actually did at all. I compared how everyone is acting, including the NWS, between the storms. Both storms left knots in peoples' guts prior to landfall, both storms you feel something bad is going to happen, but you don't know (and won't know) what until it happens. This storm, unlike others, is dragging by for me. It seems like it's been a week since it hit Jamaica for me, when in reality it has only been a couple days. The build up to Katrina was the same way for myself. Both had the potential to be major disasters in their own respective ways, Katrina went on and did that. Will Sandy? Well, we'll know in a week or so.

Sorry to offend anyone with that, it was definitely NOT the intent. I just feel the same way now, as I did before Katrina...and I was wondering if anyone else was feeling the same. And for the record, I didn't have the same feeling prior to Irene.

No prob. I'm hoping like crazy you guys stay safe. I know that churning in the gut from an approaching disaster. Watching that buzz saw roll up on us in HD was gut wrenching, to say the least. I would never wish that feeling on anyone. I hope no one ever has to expierence the real gut check of impending catastrophe.

[AdamFirst]

Jim Cantore was interviewing a guy on Singer Island scouring the beach with a metal detector on The Weather Channel

It was riveting

[ozonepete]

Another poster from AUS wishing you guys in the path of Sandy the best of luck! We're thinking of you.

Thank you very much! This is one of the things that I love about the internet. We are a community.

[ozonepete]

Jim Cantore was interviewing a guy on Singer Island scouring the beach with a metal detector on The Weather Channel

It was riveting

Is that a pun?

[Ken711]

Another poster from AUS wishing you guys in the path of Sandy the best of luck! We're thinking of you.

Thank you very much! This is one of the things that I love about the internet. We are a community.

I too greatly appreciate all your information that you provide here. From what your seeing in the model runs, where are you sensing a landfall at this time?

[Weatherguy173]

Jim Cantore was interviewing a guy on Singer Island scouring the beach with a metal detector on The Weather Channel

It was riveting

what did the guy find? he must have been "Sandy" afterwords.

[brunota2003]

Ozone:

Is it possible that both the subways get flooded and the bridges get knocked out? I don't know how high off the water they are, and a 20 or 25 foot wave is nothing to sneeze at.

I'm especially curious because of the potential impacts to Wall Street, which obviously houses some very important stuff...ie the stock market.

[HurrMark]

FYI, latest GFS rolled in...landfall in Central Jersey right around high tide Monday night in New York. That's pretty bad.

[Sanibel]

5/6th's naked. Starting to move NNE.

[ozonepete]

FYI, latest GFS rolled in...landfall in Central Jersey right around high tide Monday night in New York. That's pretty bad.

Right, Mark. Here's the output. Looks like right on the Jersey shore just south of NYC. Worst case for Jersey shore, NYC and Long Island.

[ozonepete]

Another poster from AUS wishing you guys in the path of Sandy the best of luck! We're thinking of you.

Thank you very much! This is one of the things that I love about the internet. We are a community.

I too greatly appreciate all your information that you provide here. From what your seeing in the model runs, where are you sensing a landfall at this time?

Central Jersey coast to right around NYC. Look at the model outpout in the post I just made. Really bad scenario.

[ozonepete]

Ozone:

Is it possible that both the subways get flooded and the bridges get knocked out? I don't know how high off the water they are, and a 20 or 25 foot wave is nothing to sneeze at.

I'm especially curious because of the potential impacts to Wall Street, which obviously houses some very important stuff...ie the stock market.

The bridges are quite safe- they are amazingly high at 50 to 100 feet or more. But Wall street is way downtown at the bottom right of the surge flooding map I posted earlier, so they are very susceptible. I highly doubt they will even be able to trade on Monday and am quite sure they'll be closed Tusday, depending on the arrival time of Sandy. there's a good chance they'll have to close both days. And if the subways and buildings flood down there (very good chance) they may be closed a lot longer.

[brunota2003]

Ozone:

Is it possible that both the subways get flooded and the bridges get knocked out? I don't know how high off the water they are, and a 20 or 25 foot wave is nothing to sneeze at.

I'm especially curious because of the potential impacts to Wall Street, which obviously houses some very important stuff...ie the stock market.

The bridges are quite safe- they are amazingly high at 50 to 100 feet or more. But Wall street is way downtown at the bottom right of the surge flooding map I posted earlier, so they are very susceptible. I highly doubt they will even be able to trade on Monday and am quite sure they'll be closed Tusday, depending on the arrival time of Sandy. there's a good chance they'll have to close both days. And if the subways and buildings flood down there (very good chance) they may be closed a lot longer.

Ah...I was wondering where exactly on the map it was. That is a good height for bridges, especially in the case of a deep surge, with high waves on top of it.

[ROCK]

good map Ozone and I agree to use the cat 2 scenario in this case.....that would completely cover Long Island though....