ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

You can see both areas...one east of the islands, one west. Massive system if it pulls completely together.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sorry Ivan, feel free to delete my image...we had the same idea at the same time

[alienstorm]

I think the new center is somewhere east of Martinique

[Nimbus]

A 35 KPH bicycle ride burns lots of calories per minute but if you ride a little slower and do a century you should be OK with the birthday cake.

Two vorts and except for the Euro and new GFS, the models are still clinging to an Ernesto 2006 redux. Not sure this is going to have much land interaction with Haiti but we have a long way to go.

[Shuriken]

Yes, I agree that this far out, a 0.5 or even 1 degree change in location wouldn't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.

Given that such a small difference represents either two days over land running up the spine of Florida, or two days running up either the Gulf Stream or the Gulf of Mexico on either side, a minor initialization wobble like this eventually becomes a HUGE difference in the grand scheme of things.


E.g., "Butterfly Effect".

in cases where the system is traveling essentially in a constant path or at a oblique angle to the coast. but right now it wont change much at all because right now the two vorts are rotating around each other which means we take the average distance between them and do to the dynamics of these types of situations the motion averages out and you end up having very little change.

I haven't seen any rotation of these lows around each other yet -- they're still in the same NW/SE orientation they were last night.

[Aric Dunn]

in cases where the system is traveling essentially in a constant path or at a oblique angle to the coast. but right now it wont change much at all because right now the two vorts are rotating around each other which means we take the average distance between them and do to the dynamics of these types of situations the motion averages out and you end up having very little change.

I haven't seen any rotation of these lows around each other yet -- they're still in the same NW/SE orientation they were last night.

just look at the location of the recon fixes. it moved wsw.

[ozonepete]

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Big blowup of convection moving over the LLC that's beginning to dominate. (The LLC just east of Dominica.)

[pgoss11]

Is it possible these two competing vortices never have a dominant center and this storm never evolves any further than this? If so...shoot me now

[Shuriken]

Yes, I agree that this far out, a 0.5 or even 1 degree change in location wouldn't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.

Given that such a small difference represents either two days over land running up the spine of Florida, or two days running up either the Gulf Stream or the Gulf of Mexico on either side, a minor initialization wobble like this eventually becomes a HUGE difference in the grand scheme of things.

E.g., "Butterfly Effect".

You're still missing the fact that the models can't resolve to that small of an area. They can't "see" a butterfly, or in this case, they can't even see a difference between 15.5 and 16.0 in latitude. It won't produce a different result. The fact that the furthest out point right now could take it to the FL panhandle or North Carolina is a normal distribution that far out. Is that a huge difference? Yes. But it's normal and won't change if the position changes by a degree or less.

The models are beside the point; I'm talking actuality.

Even a few tens a miles can make a huge long-term difference when a storm is swinging past the southern tip of Haiti. I.e., plows into the mountains or not. -- A decoupled storm will likely run off in a different vector, or reform in an unexpected direction (e.g., Gustav making a southwest loop around Jamaica after running into Haiti).

[Aric Dunn]

just as I thought. not much left of that northern vort. recon having a hard time finding anything there.

[Ev1948]

I hope I am not in the wrong place, but I have a question. If Isaac goes up the gulf coast of Florida, how much would that affect the east coast of Florida. Also if Isaac , or any hurricne hit Florida on the west coast, came across to the east, how powerful would it be by the time it hit the east coast or the other way around.

[KWT]

just as I thought. not much left of that northern vort. recon having a hard time finding anything there.

Agreed, its been steadil getting less marked over the last few hours, maybe if it takes a trip over land a it heads SW/SSW it'll be finished off.

Huge convective mass though with this one, its hard to see how this one won't eventually go on to strengthen, esp if it get sort out the dry air and shear that is still clearly causing problems.

[caribepr]

<---hoping all the islands affected fare well. I'm in California right now and home seems a far way away, as emails tell me the first bands are coming on now.

[Shuriken]

in cases where the system is traveling essentially in a constant path or at a oblique angle to the coast. but right now it wont change much at all because right now the two vorts are rotating around each other which means we take the average distance between them and do to the dynamics of these types of situations the motion averages out and you end up having very little change.

I haven't seen any rotation of these lows around each other yet -- they're still in the same NW/SE orientation they were last night.

just look at the location of the recon fixes. it moved wsw.

Which one?

(My assumption is you're talking about the northwest fix; if it is indeed dropping southwest, my conclusion is that it is weakening and being drawn into the newer one located in the convection. If the southeast LLC has moved north, then I stand corrected.)

[artist]

<---hoping all the islands affected fare well. I'm in California right now and home seems a far way away, as emails tell me the first bands are coming on now.

same here caribepr

[cycloneye]

<---hoping all the islands affected fare well. I'm in California right now and home seems a far way away, as emails tell me the first bands are coming on now.

Hi my friend.Let's hope that nothing serious occurs in the islands and down the road.

[Shuriken]

I hope I am not in the wrong place, but I have a question. If Isaac goes up the gulf coast of Florida, how much would that affect the east coast of Florida.

You'd probably see a Tornado Watch box covering most of the peninsula, which is what happened the last time. Depending upon the size/strength of the hurricane, there may be offshore TS-force winds along the east coast, or across the entire state, or bupkiss.

[KBBOCA]

I hope I am not in the wrong place, but I have a question. If Isaac goes up the gulf coast of Florida, how much would that affect the east coast of Florida. Also if Isaac , or any hurricne hit Florida on the west coast, came across to the east, how powerful would it be by the time it hit the east coast or the other way around.

Ev, I'm an amateur, but I can tell you of a couple of instances in recent years of storms that hit on one coast of Florida and had significant impacts on the other coast. Wilma in 2005 was one such storm. It hit on the Gulf Coast and then tracked East. There were serious damages in Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties on the East Coast. Windows in some of the taller buildings in Ft. Lauderdale were blown out, etc.

In 2004, Charley hit as a very small, but intense storm on the west coast, but there was serious damage fairly far away in Orlando too.

Even Irene (TS - Cat 1) in 1999 which came across the state from the West to East coast produced serious flooding on the east coast.

The right side of the storm is usually considered the "dirty side" or strong side of the storm. There can often be tornadoes.

Brian Norcross, a respected FL meteorologist was on the radio in WPB earlier today talking about how even a storm that hits the southern tip of the peninsula or SW Florida could have serious impacts on the East coast cities of Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and W. Palm Beach. A lot depends on the size of the storm and how quickly it travels. And there are different types of damage: wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. The wind and storm surge impact may be higher in one area of the state but the flooding in another part equally devastating...

Hope this helps!

[Blown Away]

IMO, Isaac looking more and more like a system starting to pull together. The exact center will work out and wouldn't be surprised if we see steady strengtening over the next 36 hours.

[ozonepete]

I hope I am not in the wrong place, but I have a question. If Isaac goes up the gulf coast of Florida, how much would that affect the east coast of Florida. Also if Isaac , or any hurricne hit Florida on the west coast, came across to the east, how powerful would it be by the time it hit the east coast or the other way around.

The eastern side has the more powerful winds so Isaac moving up the west coast of FL wold still produce a lot of wind on the east coast, but of course not as bad as the west coast. If it hits the west coast and moves over to the east coast it can lose a lot of wind speed as it does so. If it hits the east coast and crosses to the west, the east coast gets the worst wind and waves, but the west coast is spared more because the western side winds are weaker for a north moving hurricane. Of course anywhere very near the center is in the most danger.