Big O wrote:A well-respected met on another board posted the following:
"My take is that if the Euro indeed has the mid-level ridging properly modeled out in time, then solutions further west than even what the Euro (and every other model out there) have currently, are NOT off the table.....It's not like we have a massively digging trough that turns Isaac. And with the ongoing drought feeding back into the seasonal propensity to hold strongly onto ridging across the deep south, I wouldn't overlook the potential of Isaac to head back westward, once/if he reaches the GOM."
Bottom line is that track is not set in stone. While I believe the track into the eastern GOM is the most likely to verify, one cannot discount the possibility of a further west option at this time.
Another met on the other board seems to agree. Here is his/her reply post:
"Definitely agreed with this. If Issac can stay far enough south, it might even feel the effects of the "death ridge" near the southern Plains, and turn much more westerly towards Texas, even. The fact that all the data seems to stall Issac once it hits land is indicative of the lack of a steering flow. There is a weak trough that enters the midwest, which combined with a potential weakness in the Atlantic ridge that Issac could run into once it hits the Gulf, that could turn him northward towards the western Florida Panhandle. But if that is not enough, Issac could bend well back to the west, and hopefully relieve some drought conditions in the southern Plains.
I can see a Track "A" scenario with Issac approaching the western FLA Panhandle area, and a track "B" scenario of it bending much further west. Not sure I see an in-between scenario at this time."
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