ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed, even if the models are overdoing the trough which I am always a proponent of them doing so, the weakness will still be there over the north gulf cause the ridge will be centered over the rockies. And also what if any affect 91L will have. The big question is intensity forecast this go around not track. Thats the thing to watch and a lot of it

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Sorry, doesn't look like 45kts.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What happened to the intermediate advisories?

[BigB0882]

I get excited when it appears there is a chance a storm can head this way but not this time. I don't want it. I'm too busy! lol

Not saying it will come this way but it seems more possible than anything since Gustav and look how that turned out...

[cycloneye]

A tad less fast than at 5 PM EDT advisory when it was at 18kts.

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 64.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

[cycloneye]

What happened to the intermediate advisories?

There are no watches nor warnings for any landmasses right now.

[Meteorcane]

Question very quick about the Hot Towers... Hot Towers are very tall cumulonimbus clouds correct? Are they important in tropical cyclone development because they show substantial heating via condensation of the mid-upper troposphere?

[jinftl]

Those only come out when a land area is under a watch or warning (t.s. or hurricane). Probably see t.s. watch for Jamaica going up during the day Saturday - until then, updates every 6 hours.

What happened to the intermediate advisories?

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 040036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SAT AUG 4 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO (AL052012) 20120804 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120804  0000   120804  1200   120805  0000   120805  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  64.8W   14.7N  68.0W   16.1N  71.4W   17.2N  75.0W
BAMD    13.8N  64.8W   14.5N  67.5W   15.5N  70.4W   16.6N  73.2W
BAMM    13.8N  64.8W   14.5N  67.9W   15.5N  70.9W   16.4N  74.0W
LBAR    13.8N  64.8W   14.2N  67.8W   14.9N  71.0W   15.5N  74.2W
SHIP        45KTS          52KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        45KTS          52KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120806  0000   120807  0000   120808  0000   120809  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  78.4W   18.1N  83.5W   17.5N  86.4W   17.8N  88.7W
BAMD    17.7N  75.7W   18.8N  79.9W   19.4N  82.8W   20.2N  85.8W
BAMM    17.4N  76.9W   18.2N  81.6W   18.4N  84.9W   19.1N  87.9W
LBAR    16.2N  77.2W   17.5N  81.9W   18.7N  85.0W   19.1N  88.1W
SHIP        69KTS          83KTS          91KTS          92KTS
DSHP        69KTS          83KTS          91KTS          55KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.8N LONCUR =  64.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  61.5W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.3N LONM24 =  57.4W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  50NM


[HurricaneAndrew92]

Like night and day

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/w ... 1344039186

Upper level vapor though.

[jinftl]

Latest runs hinting at a sharper right turn once in the Gulf? All about the trend and consistency from run to run this far out...

[SunnyThoughts]

looking mighty fine

[HurricaneAndrew92]

60 at 11? What's our intensity here? Surprised if its still 50 mph.

[mcheer23]

Id still go with 50..

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Id still go with 50..

Checking the wind field at 11am we had 52mph at the center.

[AJC3]

Question very quick about the Hot Towers... Hot Towers are very tall cumulonimbus clouds correct? Are they important in tropical cyclone development because they show substantial heating via condensation of the mid-upper troposphere?

If you google "vortical hot towers" you will come across dozens of references to the role VHT's play in TC-genesis. In essense, VHT theory suggests on the storm scale, convectively generated low level positive PV anomalies are the primary mechanism in spinning up a TC. In recent years, this theory has gained favor over the CISK theory of TC-genesis, which is what I was taught in college.

The Role of “Vortical” Hot Towers in the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Diana (1984)

Eric A. Hendricks and Michael T. Montgomery
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Christopher A. Davis
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

At near-cloud-resolving scales, these vortical hot towers are the preferred mode of convection. They are demonstrated to be the most important influence to the formation of the tropical storm via a two-stage evolutionary process: (i) preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of multiple small-scale lower-tropospheric cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, and (ii) multiple mergers and axisymmetrization of these low-level PV anomalies. The local warm-core formation and tangential momentum spinup are shown to be dominated by the organizational process of the diabatically generated PV anomalies; the former process being accomplished by the strong vertical vorticity in the hot tower cores, which effectively traps the latent heat from moist convection. In addition to the organizational process of the PV anomalies, the cyclogenesis is enhanced by the aggregate diabatic heating associated with the vortical hot towers, which produces a net influx of low-level mean angular momentum throughout the genesis.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?

[PTrackerLA]

Models seem to be coming into a general consensus of a W then WNW track towards the tip of the Yucatan then a turn more NW or NNW afterwards.

[ilovestorms]

Wow, thank you for that AJC3!

[mcheer23]

Models seem to be coming into a general consensus of a W then WNW track towards the tip of the Yucatan then a turn more NW or NNW afterwards.

Link to these models?