ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

the sfwmd site has storm 02 now ?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Brent]

the sfwmd site has storm 02 now ?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

I believe that's Bud

[Aric Dunn]

the sfwmd site has storm 02 now ?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

I believe that's Bud

they never do anything with the pacific.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah they do. That is Bud. There are only two model plots that show up for Bud right now in both the legend and on the map. For 94L, the fresh 18Z BAMs were run on it. So, it is still 94L.

the sfwmd site has storm 02 now ?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

I believe that's Bud

they never do anything with the pacific.

[Aric Dunn]

okie dokie.

[jlauderdal]

Sun is out in full force NE FLL, winds maybe 7 mph, maybe the heating will get the tstorms going. Very interesting day here to say the least, urban flood advisory, then wind and now calm and stable.

[tolakram]

Visible, zoomed out a bit.



Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[HurricaneBelle]

NWS Tampa mets sticking by the GFS runs on their long range discussion just issued this afternoon regarding the evolution of 94L:

FYI, starting several months ago NWS Tampa now only issues one long-term discussion a day, with the overnight (2-4 AM) AFD; the one in the afternoon is just a rerun as they only update the short-term at that time.

[northjaxpro]

TAFB is forecasting 94L/potential Beryl positioned about 150-200 iles off shore Cape Canveral tomorrow morning at 12Z

[northjaxpro]

NWS Tampa mets sticking by the GFS runs on their long range discussion just issued this afternoon regarding the evolution of 94L:

FYI, starting several months ago NWS Tampa now only issues one long-term discussion a day, with the overnight (2-4 AM) AFD; the one in the afternoon is just a rerun as they only update the short-term at that time.

Thanks for that info. I wasn't aware they did that with their long-range discussions. They do it different than the NWS Jax office or most of the other WFOs in the state for that matter as far as I am aware.

[ozonepete]

Visible, zoomed out a bit.

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/7875/ztemp.jpg

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Maybe a developing subtropical storm has had that look...

[CrazyC83]

Hard to believe we are talking about Beryl potentially and it is not even June yet...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Anyone have the latest ASCAT?

[CrazyC83]

Time to lengthen hurricane season perhaps?

We've had Andrea and Barry in 2007 (Barry was a low on May 31st that became a tropical cyclone on June 1st), Arthur in 2008, TD 1 in 2009 (plus the Gulf low that nearly became a tropical cyclone in May '09), and then this year we had the invest near the Azores that could be added afterward, Alberto, and 94L. That's five systems in the past ten years. For comparison, in the ten years prior to 1964 (when the season was pushed back from June 15th to June 1st), there was a tropical storm in 1956, 1957, 1958 (Alma), and 1959 (although Arlene formed in late May but lasted until early June) in the period from June 1st to June 14th. It'd come down to whether the cost justifies extending the Atlantic season back to May 15th (I can't see them going back any earlier), and since the EPAC already starts on the 15th, I don't think it'd be that much more (if any) to have the Atlantic season start at the same time. If 94L becomes Beryl, and that Azores invest gets added (unlikely that both happens, but you never know), then I think there may be calls to extend the season back.

Yeah maybe, and we've had a few December storms the last decade too. May 15 to December 15 seems the most plausible extension.

[cycloneye]

There has been references to 1887 as the last year there were two named storms prior to June 1rst,but I found another year ahead (1908) when two hurricanes formed,one in March and the other on late May.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

[Aric Dunn]

well it appears the circ near the keys is becoming elongated and weakening. so I would bet yet another circ is going to get started shortly somewhere to the NE and this same process will happen again just slightly farther up the coast. This is all due to the strong shear of course. everytime we get a burst of convection bet on a new vort to spin up.

[Nimbus]

Shear should last long enough to keep the strongest storms away from Florida. Silly to name something without a well defined LLC.

[wxman57]

I'd say about a 90-100% chance of Beryl by Sunday. Should be subtropical to start with. Great deal of shear until late Saturday. Maybe a strong TS Sunday as it heads SW toward NE Florida. Some weakening likely before it reaches the coast. Third TS of the season (Azores system will likely be classified as such after the season ends.)

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well, you were agressive with Alberto too, and we saw what happened.

[cycloneye]

I'd say about a 90-100% chance of Beryl by Sunday. Should be subtropical to start with. Great deal of shear until late Saturday. Maybe a strong TS Sunday as it heads SW toward NE Florida. Some weakening likely before it reaches the coast. Third TS of the season (Azores system will likely be classified as such after the season ends.

Seeing you bullish means it will happen.