EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Eye still looks too ragged to be considered a MH at this point... But nonetheless: The EPAC, when we do it, we go all the way.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 80-85 knts right now.

[Aric Dunn]

well one thing is for sure its been consistently to the right of the forecast track. and its still heading NW to NNW. NHC track has it bending to the WNW by now and its not looks like it will be ashore sooner rather than later. means it will likely die quicker since it would make it farther inland.

[brunota2003]

I can't cover down, I'm busy with work...can someone please pick this up? Thanks.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[brunota2003]

Recon should be descending shortly...I can't do the recon though, work...so someone else will have to cover down. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

DECENDING
URPN15 KNHC 151614
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 21 20120615
160630 1730N 09613W 3598 08382 0458 -200 -200 152015 017 /// /// 05
160700 1727N 09614W 3598 08385 0460 -203 -204 150013 014 /// /// 03
160730 1725N 09614W 3598 08387 0461 -200 -204 144012 012 /// /// 03
160800 1723N 09614W 3597 08390 0461 -202 -204 141016 018 /// /// 03
160830 1720N 09614W 3598 08386 0462 -200 -200 121021 023 /// /// 05
160900 1718N 09614W 3597 08390 0462 -200 -200 111022 023 /// /// 05
160930 1718N 09614W 3597 08390 0462 -200 -200 109017 021 /// /// 05
161000 1713N 09614W 3597 08387 0462 -190 -190 116013 015 /// /// 05
161030 1710N 09614W 3598 08385 0461 -190 -190 103013 014 /// /// 05
161100 1708N 09614W 3598 08386 0461 -190 -190 105017 018 /// /// 05
161130 1705N 09614W 3597 08389 0461 -190 -190 120018 019 /// /// 05
161200 1703N 09614W 3598 08380 0457 -190 -190 124019 020 /// /// 05
161230 1701N 09614W 3598 08378 0453 -190 -190 122021 022 /// /// 05
161300 1658N 09614W 3598 08376 0451 -190 -190 118023 023 /// /// 05
161330 1656N 09614W 3598 08374 0449 -190 -190 117026 028 /// /// 05
161400 1653N 09614W 3598 08372 0450 -190 -190 118027 029 /// /// 05
161430 1651N 09614W 3599 08370 0449 -190 -190 118026 027 /// /// 05
161500 1648N 09614W 3598 08374 0448 -190 -190 118025 025 /// /// 05
161530 1646N 09614W 3598 08372 0447 -190 -190 119024 026 /// /// 05
161600 1644N 09614W 3598 08372 0447 -180 -180 122025 026 /// /// 05
$$

[Yellow Evan]

Recon should be descending shortly...I can't do the recon though, work...so someone else will have to cover down. Thanks.

How? I can't find the recon data NHC link. If anyone tells me, thank you.

[RL3AO]

Not a Dvorak technique expert, but I thought a cleared eye on visible was associated with a near major hurricane?

[Zanthe]

Not a Dvorak technique expert, but I thought a cleared eye on visible was associated with a near major hurricane?

It is. Like SouthDadeFish said, Dvorak numbers have it at a category 4 storm. The NHC said the system looked to be undergoing RI, and given the current look of the storm, it could well become a major hurricane yet.

But it definitely looks like one on the visible.

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151624
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 22 20120615
161630 1641N 09615W 3598 08370 0447 -180 -180 127024 026 /// /// 05
161700 1639N 09615W 3597 08373 0447 -199 //// 126028 029 /// /// 05
161730 1636N 09615W 3598 08371 0447 -180 -180 136025 028 /// /// 05
161800 1634N 09615W 3599 08367 0447 -180 -180 137020 022 /// /// 05
161830 1631N 09615W 3595 08376 0447 -180 -180 129024 025 /// /// 05
161900 1629N 09615W 3595 08375 0446 -180 -180 138026 026 /// /// 05
161930 1627N 09615W 3598 08371 0446 -180 -180 144027 027 /// /// 05
162000 1624N 09615W 3607 08356 0446 -180 -180 150018 026 /// /// 05
162030 1622N 09615W 3594 08382 0448 -180 -180 140020 024 /// /// 05
162100 1619N 09615W 3592 08379 0444 -180 -180 126035 036 /// /// 05
162130 1617N 09615W 3598 08365 0441 -180 -180 123038 039 /// /// 05
162200 1614N 09615W 3602 08359 0440 -180 -180 119039 040 /// /// 05
162230 1612N 09615W 3601 08361 0441 -180 -180 115040 042 /// /// 05
162300 1610N 09615W 3595 08370 0440 -195 //// 115041 043 /// /// 05
162330 1607N 09615W 3599 08360 0439 -195 //// 116038 040 /// /// 05
162400 1605N 09615W 3597 08365 0438 -194 //// 116039 040 /// /// 05
162430 1602N 09615W 3598 08362 0437 -195 //// 117038 040 /// /// 05
162500 1600N 09615W 3595 08367 0438 -190 //// 120044 044 /// /// 05
162530 1558N 09615W 3601 08354 0435 -189 //// 117041 043 /// /// 05
162600 1555N 09615W 3598 08359 0434 -190 //// 112045 047 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151634
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 23 20120615
162630 1553N 09616W 3598 08356 0431 -191 //// 110045 047 /// /// 05
162700 1551N 09616W 3597 08355 0429 -193 //// 112046 047 /// /// 05
162730 1548N 09616W 3598 08350 0427 -190 //// 111046 048 /// /// 05
162800 1547N 09614W 3599 08348 0427 -190 //// 112050 050 /// /// 05
162830 1546N 09612W 3598 08351 0428 -190 //// 114051 052 /// /// 05
162900 1546N 09610W 3598 08352 0428 -190 //// 114051 052 /// /// 05
162930 1546N 09608W 3598 08354 0428 -195 //// 116051 052 /// /// 05
163000 1546N 09606W 3599 08349 0428 -195 //// 117051 053 /// /// 05
163030 1545N 09603W 3595 08357 0428 -196 //// 119055 055 /// /// 05
163100 1545N 09601W 3598 08350 0427 -195 //// 119055 055 /// /// 05
163130 1545N 09559W 3598 08349 0426 -198 //// 122055 056 /// /// 05
163200 1545N 09557W 3598 08352 0427 -198 //// 125055 055 /// /// 05
163230 1545N 09555W 3597 08355 0427 -200 //// 125057 058 /// /// 05
163300 1544N 09553W 3597 08354 0428 -200 //// 124056 057 /// /// 05
163330 1544N 09551W 3599 08354 0432 -199 //// 122053 056 /// /// 05
163400 1544N 09548W 3679 08201 0430 -189 //// 123055 059 /// /// 05
163430 1544N 09546W 3779 08005 0420 -176 //// 125055 058 /// /// 05
163500 1544N 09544W 3902 07767 0405 -150 -150 128054 058 /// /// 05
163530 1543N 09542W 4044 07488 0382 -140 -140 127054 058 /// /// 05
163600 1543N 09540W 4175 07244 0365 -125 -133 131059 060 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151644
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 24 20120615
163630 1543N 09538W 4312 07001 0351 -111 -122 133057 058 /// /// 03
163700 1543N 09536W 4448 06758 0333 -094 -105 129055 057 /// /// 03
163730 1543N 09535W 4558 06553 0303 -084 -097 134054 056 /// /// 03
163800 1542N 09533W 4701 06315 0290 -073 -090 132054 055 /// /// 03
163830 1542N 09531W 4848 06077 0276 -057 -081 131053 055 /// /// 03
163900 1542N 09529W 4981 05863 0263 -042 -078 136051 053 /// /// 03
163930 1542N 09527W 5096 05682 0251 -042 -056 137052 057 038 011 00
164000 1542N 09526W 5233 05475 0238 -035 -038 129049 053 038 012 00
164030 1541N 09524W 5395 05236 0226 -019 -029 139052 054 038 010 00
164100 1541N 09522W 5570 04982 0026 -002 -035 137051 053 037 004 00
164130 1541N 09520W 5761 04715 0035 +012 -022 136049 050 036 001 00
164200 1541N 09519W 5944 04462 0056 +016 +005 137051 054 037 004 00
164230 1541N 09517W 6121 04230 0064 +031 -002 144051 053 039 006 00
164300 1541N 09516W 6280 04009 0082 +030 +030 142039 053 041 019 01
164330 1540N 09514W 6378 03888 0096 +030 +030 113049 053 044 018 01
164400 1540N 09512W 6485 03758 0092 +040 +040 128046 053 048 020 01
164430 1540N 09511W 6678 03524 0090 +061 +048 140044 046 050 016 00
164500 1540N 09509W 6887 03271 0089 +072 +063 128040 044 038 006 00
164530 1540N 09508W 6963 03167 0074 +082 +067 122044 045 035 005 00
164600 1540N 09506W 6952 03178 0087 +070 +070 119037 045 036 009 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151654
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 25 20120615
164630 1540N 09505W 6972 03155 0097 +070 +070 120039 042 036 007 01
164700 1539N 09503W 6969 03165 0091 +073 +067 125037 039 037 005 00
164730 1539N 09501W 6967 03167 0104 +060 +060 123036 038 035 005 01
164800 1539N 09500W 6960 03177 0104 +070 +070 122034 038 036 011 01
164830 1539N 09458W 6970 03164 0098 +071 +069 125032 034 035 008 00
164900 1539N 09457W 6967 03173 0110 +060 +060 114036 039 037 010 01
164930 1539N 09455W 6962 03178 0096 +070 +070 118033 036 037 009 01
165000 1538N 09454W 6966 03173 0097 +070 +070 130036 037 035 006 01
165030 1538N 09452W 6965 03175 0095 +070 +070 136036 037 031 006 01
165100 1538N 09450W 6967 03172 0086 +081 +075 145035 036 030 005 00
165130 1538N 09449W 6968 03172 0081 +085 +071 149035 035 029 003 00
165200 1538N 09447W 6967 03173 0081 +087 +067 149035 036 029 003 00
165230 1537N 09446W 6975 03164 0078 +089 +068 152036 037 028 003 03
165300 1536N 09445W 6966 03176 0085 +083 +076 146036 036 029 003 03
165330 1535N 09446W 6967 03173 0087 +083 +072 138035 038 030 001 00
165400 1534N 09448W 6970 03172 0083 +088 +069 141035 036 030 001 00
165430 1532N 09449W 6964 03178 0083 +085 +068 149035 036 030 000 00
165500 1531N 09450W 6967 03172 0076 +091 +061 147035 037 031 000 00
165530 1530N 09452W 6969 03170 0077 +089 +068 145035 037 032 000 00
165600 1529N 09453W 6965 03173 0078 +085 +074 146034 037 032 002 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151704
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 26 20120615
165630 1528N 09454W 6967 03170 0082 +083 +078 150034 035 034 000 00
165700 1526N 09455W 6963 03171 0077 +086 +070 157036 038 035 000 00
165730 1525N 09457W 6970 03167 0080 +085 +066 153035 036 034 000 00
165800 1524N 09458W 6967 03170 0084 +081 +068 147032 035 033 001 00
165830 1523N 09459W 6965 03172 0085 +081 +070 140033 033 031 001 00
165900 1522N 09500W 6969 03166 0084 +081 +072 137036 038 034 000 00
165930 1520N 09502W 6967 03167 0080 +083 +074 132037 039 033 002 00
170000 1519N 09503W 6969 03164 0081 +079 +073 132038 038 033 003 00
170030 1518N 09504W 6969 03164 0087 +070 +070 130042 043 035 003 01
170100 1517N 09506W 6966 03164 0094 +070 +070 133042 044 035 004 01
170130 1515N 09507W 6966 03164 0093 +070 +070 134040 042 037 006 01
170200 1514N 09508W 6967 03161 0084 +070 +070 136041 043 037 005 01
170230 1513N 09509W 6969 03156 0078 +070 +070 138044 046 038 005 01
170300 1512N 09511W 6969 03155 0062 +088 +065 138045 046 037 003 00
170330 1510N 09512W 6967 03151 0064 +084 +071 139044 046 038 001 00
170400 1509N 09513W 6971 03151 0064 +082 +068 139045 046 041 000 00
170430 1508N 09515W 6969 03150 0057 +085 +070 141049 052 042 001 00
170500 1507N 09516W 6967 03149 0054 +087 +062 139051 052 043 000 00
170530 1506N 09517W 6958 03157 0049 +089 +056 136051 052 043 001 00
170600 1504N 09518W 6969 03142 0047 +090 +051 133051 052 043 001 00
$$
;

[euro6208]

euro has carlotta making landfall as a strong hurricane then its remnants goes back out swimming over the ocean then dissipating...

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151714
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 27 20120615
170630 1503N 09520W 6963 03148 0052 +078 +075 127053 056 045 001 00
170700 1502N 09521W 6970 03137 0040 +086 +065 132056 058 044 006 00
170730 1501N 09522W 6970 03133 0045 +083 +069 132058 059 044 002 00
170800 1459N 09523W 6963 03133 0042 +080 +080 134056 059 044 005 01
170830 1458N 09525W 6965 03129 0036 +080 +080 130058 059 044 004 01
170900 1457N 09526W 6968 03126 0032 +080 +080 137059 060 045 005 01
170930 1456N 09527W 6967 03127 0039 +080 +080 142061 062 048 009 01
171000 1454N 09528W 6969 03121 0042 +070 +070 149058 061 054 014 01
171030 1453N 09530W 6967 03119 //// +064 //// 149056 059 054 018 01
171100 1452N 09531W 6966 03126 0039 +070 +070 145059 061 052 020 01
171130 1451N 09532W 6956 03133 //// +068 //// 139056 058 049 011 01
171200 1450N 09533W 6978 03106 //// +067 //// 143056 057 051 010 01
171230 1449N 09534W 6978 03105 0032 +070 +070 148061 062 051 006 01
171300 1447N 09536W 6963 03118 0028 +080 +080 146060 061 053 009 01
171330 1446N 09537W 6971 03106 0028 +070 +070 143058 059 053 010 01
171400 1445N 09538W 6966 03110 0030 +070 +070 139061 062 053 010 01
171430 1444N 09539W 6967 03106 0023 +070 +070 138061 062 052 010 01
171500 1443N 09541W 6967 03103 0017 +070 +070 137064 065 052 008 01
171530 1442N 09542W 6969 03093 0003 +080 +080 137065 066 051 007 01
171600 1440N 09543W 6967 03089 9991 +081 +079 137063 066 051 006 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Recon should hit the eye in the next 20 to 30 minutes.

[euro6208]

i would place the intensity at 85 knots but it looks like land is finally affecting carlotta's northern quadrant...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]