ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

4.5 is 77 knots...and here's this too:

21/1145 UTC 40.4N 43.8W T4.0/4.0 CHRIS -- Atlantic

[DanieleItalyRm]

as did Chris to jump from 995 to 987 and 50 to 65 knots?
this means that if this storm would not have been persistent would be passed as a tropical storm.
Who knows how many storms of short duration have a lower classification for this same reason?

[Macrocane]

This is a nice surprise, first hurricane of the season that far north, it looks so great on satellite imagery...and Joe Bastardi kept saying it wasn't tropical at all in the last couple of days.

[cycloneye]

:eek: This is a nice surprise, first hurricane of the season that far north, it looks so great on satellite imagery...and Joe Bastardi kept saying it wasn't tropical at all in the last couple of days.

Yeah,I wonder what he will say now.

[Ptarmigan]

:eek: This is a nice surprise, first hurricane of the season that far north, it looks so great on satellite imagery...and Joe Bastardi kept saying it wasn't tropical at all in the last couple of days.

This is one of the earliest third storm on record. The thing is they are all non-tropical in origin. I can never imagine a hurricane that far north and in June!

1997 started early with Danny by July. Again, they were non-tropical in origin and 1997 was a quiet season due to a strong El Nino.

[DanieleItalyRm]

[ozonepete]

Yeah, so we can't do much comparison at all, as usual, because each season is unique in some way. In this case we have ENSO neutral and there is only a 50% chance of getting to El Nino by September. No significant El Nino is forecast as of now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012

CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE FEATURE THIS MORNING...AND IN FACT THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED. A 1111Z SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A SOLID CLOSED RING ON THE 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE.
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED AND THE COLD INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS
ARE -60C TO -70C...RESULTING IN A DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T ESTIMATES
OF 4.5 AND CONSTRAINED FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CIMSS ADT HAS OBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIED AN EYE SCENE TYPE...THE LAST FEW RAW T-NUMBERS WERE ALSO
4.4 TO 4.5. BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY
COOL SSTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...MAKING CHRIS
THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT AN
ESTIMATED 050/17. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE TURNS
CYCLONICALLY...NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LARGER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. AFTERWARD...CHRIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 41.1N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 42.8N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 44.0N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/0000Z 43.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z 42.5N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[CrazyC83]

Earliest hurricane since Allison in 1995.

[Hurricanehink]

BTW, Chris is now the earliest hurricane in 17 years, since Hurricane Allison in June of 1995. That is, of course, assuming Beryl was not a hurricane. Chris is one of only 32 June storms to become a hurricane in June on record.

[CrazyC83]

Is there any chance this could slide back southeast and threaten the Azores?

[ozonepete]

Looks like no way, crazyC. The models are in really good agreement on a cyclonic recurve westward, and by the time it finishes that it should merge with another low and no longer be a separate entity.

[cycloneye]

Chris ACE is going up rapidly and the Atlantic continues to go up as well.

Code: Select all


03L (Chris)
 
Operational
 
1.8550

North Atlantic Total

4.095


[KWT]

Very impressive to see Chris becoming a hurricane, pretty early and VERY far north for a June system to strengthen, still systems moving E/NE in this part of the basin tend to pull surprises more often than not...

[brunota2003]

I really wish we had an UAV recon plane that could explore systems like this. What is the real pressure? Winds? Are the winds even as strong as they think? So many questions we could answer...but I think with those answers, would come a slew of more questions. Like how is that possible? And what does that mean when it comes to *where* TC's can form?

[Blown Away]

Gotta love it, most expected a very uneventful el nino hurricane season. (2) May TS w/ one landfall from the east into Jacksonville (crazy!!) and N Atlantic hurricane in June! Wow, I'm glad I bet the over w/ storm #'s prediction!

[CrazyC83]

AL, 03, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 419N, 429W, 60, 990, TS,

Back to Tropical Storm Chris? Unless this pulls an Epsilon and fools everyone down the line?

[brunota2003]

Don't think it will fool anyone. Chris is falling apart now, the cold ssts are finally taking their toll. It was nice seeing you play though, Chris!

[brunota2003]

Looking at Chris this afternoon...still no signs of extratropical transition IMO. Chris' presentation is amazing, even with the eye holding on (despite the convection being very weak now). He looks much more like a system you'd expect to see at 10N or 15N, rather than 42.5N.

Banding is well defined, the outflow in almost all quadrants is excellent (probably the main reason he is still around), and the central core of convection isn't flying off to the NE...it is staying circular and right over the LLC. I think Chris is going to be a big storm to study and is going to be the front lines on some rule rewritings.

In My Opinion, it won't be extratropical transition that ends Chris (as has been forecast)...but instead, the degeneration of convection, turning Chris into a remnant low.

I think Chris may have been as strong as 70 or 75 knots...and that T numbers may have been higher, had the eye been used as a scene earlier than it was. This system would have been the perfect system for some form of recon to explore and research...and I have a feeling that as the decades move on, we may start seeing more of these Subtropic Tropical systems (I can't even classify it as a tropical system, it formed well outside of the "tropics"). Shows you that man tries to fit everything into neat categories, and Mother Nature always throws a curveball to show that we can't successfully fit everything into them.

Here is an image of your STC or STTC (Subtropic Cyclone or Subtropic Tropical Cyclone):

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TS.

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012

COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 19-20C AND A MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ARE FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL
ON CHRIS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS OPENED UP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME
DOWN AND THE CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW AN INTENSITY BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHRIS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW IN 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...015/12 KT.
CHRIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
A SUBSEQUENT TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH COULD FOLLOW...WITH CHRIS BEING
ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 42.4N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 43.9N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 43.8N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 42.8N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS