ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think it'll pass well east of the DR, even east of PR and possibly just east of the Virgin Islands. But all squalls should remain east of the track. NHC seems determined to name it, though the plane still can't find a well-defined LLC. I don't know why the recon plane is flying back to the SW now. If there IS any better-defined LLC it's well north of where they're flying.

[cycloneye]

Recon found a much better defined circulation on the latest pass. Expect Rafael shortly.

Yes,a lot of west winds.

[CrazyC83]

If a VDM comes out, a Special Advisory would be needed immediately since Tropical Storm Warnings will need to come out right away.

[redneck51]

Here's the recon graphics. Where's that LLC at?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[wxman57]

Has to be one of the worst-looking tropical storms I've seen in a while. I see it's Beven on duty, though. He's usually not too gung-ho on naming, as is evidence by the fact that he wouldn't give in and name that system that hit north Florida last year, even though it had TS winds and convection near the center - because the convection over the center didn't last long enough. No convection at all near Rafael's center, though.

[MGC]

Well, the last visable loop the "center" looked to be moving WNW to me...but, I see the advisory has Rafael moving NNW....what do I know....I've only been looking at satellite pictures since the mid 70's.....but I'll trust recon instead of my old eyeballs....those darn optical delusions......MGC

[caneflyer]

Has to be one of the worst-looking tropical storms I've seen in a while. I see it's Beven on duty, though. He's usually not too gung-ho on naming, as is evidence by the fact that he wouldn't give in and name that system that hit north Florida last year, even though it had TS winds and convection near the center - because the convection over the center didn't last long enough. No convection at all near Rafael's center, though.

The definition of a tropical cyclone doesn't require convection over or even particularly near the center. It requires "organized deep convection", where the term organized contains an implicit temporal component. Rafael has been producing persistent deep convection with sufficient banding to generate decent Dvorak classifications for quite some time now. All it needed was a sufficiently well-defined center.

[caribepr]

From SJU NWS weather:

Sat & HH data shows that 98 has formed a closed circulation.
The low is centered near 15N/63W, about 125 miles WSW of Dominica or 220 miles SSE of St. Croix. Most of the deep convection is displaced well E & SE of the center due to SW shear on the E side of an upper level low centered SW of PR. A general NNW forward motion @ 12mph is expected for the first couple of days with an acceleration toward the N & NE after that. HH data indicates that max winds are near 40mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight; slow strengthening possible Saturday/Sunday.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the USVI, as well as the BVI, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, & Montserrat. Also for Saba, St. Maartin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, & St. Lucia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for PR, Culebra, & Vieques.

Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm Sat. to 3am Tues. for PR & USVI.
Approaching low pressure system will bring an increase in wind & seas across offshore Atlantic AND Caribbean waters.

[chrisjslucia]

Can anyone give us a clue as to where the deep convection is? After heavy rain all day with no winds it has eased up in the last hour over St Lucia. As the centre is out to our north west, and we can see some lightning to the west, it is difficult to figure whether the strong winds recorded so far are yet to pass or have already done so to the east.
We are having occasional puffs of wind - no way could you call them gusts - so we expect more rain for many hours yet but would prefer rain without wind!! Any clarification welcome!!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 17, 2012101300, , BEST, 0, 150N, 632W, 35, 1007, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Has to be one of the worst-looking tropical storms I've seen in a while.

Yes, but satellite imagery can be deceiving. You said so yourself.

[msbee]

I think it'll pass well east of the DR, even east of PR and possibly just east of the Virgin Islands. But all squalls should remain east of the track. NHC seems determined to name it, though the plane still can't find a well-defined LLC. I don't know why the recon plane is flying back to the SW now. If there IS any better-defined LLC it's well north of where they're flying.

east of PR and VI is Us!!!!!!

[caribepr]

I think it'll pass well east of the DR, even east of PR and possibly just east of the Virgin Islands. But all squalls should remain east of the track. NHC seems determined to name it, though the plane still can't find a well-defined LLC. I don't know why the recon plane is flying back to the SW now. If there IS any better-defined LLC it's well north of where they're flying.

east of PR and VI is Us!!!!!!

Thinking of you, Msbee!! hope we all do okay with this one.

[abajan]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Can anyone give us a clue as to where the deep convection is? After heavy rain all day with no winds it has eased up in the last hour over St Lucia. As the centre is out to our north west, and we can see some lightning to the west, it is difficult to figure whether the strong winds recorded so far are yet to pass or have already done so to the east.
We are having occasional puffs of wind - no way could you call them gusts - so we expect more rain for many hours yet but would prefer rain without wind!! Any clarification welcome!!

Trust me: At some point, you will get winds from this. I would find it very strange if you didn't because Barbados got some pretty strong winds today (I doubt if the wind speeds recorded at our airport was a true reflection of what happened in other parts of the island) and you are closer to what is now a stronger system.

[Gustywind]

12/2345 UTC 15.3N 63.1W T1.5/2.0 RAFAEL
12/1745 UTC 14.3N 62.3W T2.0/2.0 98L

[chrisjslucia]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Can anyone give us a clue as to where the deep convection is? After heavy rain all day with no winds it has eased up in the last hour over St Lucia. As the centre is out to our north west, and we can see some lightning to the west, it is difficult to figure whether the strong winds recorded so far are yet to pass or have already done so to the east.
We are having occasional puffs of wind - no way could you call them gusts - so we expect more rain for many hours yet but would prefer rain without wind!! Any clarification welcome!!

Trust me: At some point, you will get winds from this. I would find it very strange if you didn't because Barbados got some pretty strong winds today (I doubt if the wind speeds recorded at our airport was a true reflection of what happened in other parts of the island) and you are closer to what is now a stronger system.

Thanks Abajan. Have kept up with your posts during the day so had assumed we would get the same winds here but the time gap is quite large now - seven or eight hours since your strongest gusts. I'll keep alert and still hope they went to the east of us!!

[GeorgiaMan]

My first post... I just recently found this forum and have to say that it has great information. I was curious in your opinions on something. I'm slated to fly tomorrow morning to PR from Atlanta with a slated arrival of about 1 PM. Considering how PR is now under a watch, what do you think the odds are of a flight cancel or delay, etc.? Trying to get down there to get on vacation...

thank you
Nick

[northjaxpro]

Welcome to Storm2K GeorgiaMan!

[cycloneye]

My first post... I just recently found this forum and have to say that it has great information. I was curious in your opinions on something. I'm slated to fly tomorrow morning to PR from Atlanta with a slated arrival of about 1 PM. Considering how PR is now under a watch, what do you think the odds are of a flight cancel or delay, etc.? Trying to get down there to get on vacation...

thank you
Nick

Welcome to Storm2k. So far there has not been news here of cancellations of flights at the San Juan airport.Check your flight status on Saturday morning to see if all is on time. If I hear news from the airlines, or airport officials I will post.