ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Looks like recon is still struggling to find any TS winds at the surface.

So you think it's weakening?

[KWT]

Your point? I didn't see any evidence of such wind in the recon reports.The plane barely found TS wind at FL, and lacking convection to the NE it isnn't likely that the FL winds would translate well to the surface. SFMR supported that - 25-30 kt surface wind.

I think the NHC may go down to 35kts but I think this latest decent convective burst right over the center may well help save Issac from being downgraded.

Either way I think we can all agree that the center is still a total mess and shambles...as most systems are in the E.Caribbean to be fair.

[shortwave]

000130 1517N 06150W 6948 03167 9971 +102 /// 160007 007 025 002 01

Is that 997 pressure, what altitude?

[RL3AO]

000130 1517N 06150W 6948 03167 9971 +102 /// 160007 007 025 002 01

Is that 997 pressure, what altitude?

Those extrapolated pressure readings from the NOAA plane should be ignored IMO. Use the dropsondes. They're always too low on the pressure.

[CrazyC83]

000130 1517N 06150W 6948 03167 9971 +102 /// 160007 007 025 002 01

Is that 997 pressure, what altitude?

Those extrapolated pressure readings from the NOAA plane should be ignored IMO. Use the dropsondes. They're always too low on the pressure.

Has that area been sampled by the AF plane though? Otherwise that could be a new center forming...

[hurricanes1234]

Where is the best track update?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Watchout now. The euro could be on to something here. Reminds me a lot of Ernesto, just couldnt quite get things together and kept going west never catching the weakness. Not saying it will get buried in the Yucatan just saying might have a more gradual wnw/nw turn

[RL3AO]

Has that area been sampled by the AF plane though? Otherwise that could be a new center forming...

AF was near there about 1hr ago and had an extrapolated pressure of 1005mb.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is reforming again. recon having issues finding a good center fix. looks to be now well south of earlier fixes.

[psyclone]

it probably should technically be downgraded but i doubt the NHC will do so in the interest of continuity. invert and ask yourself if this was classed as a TD now, how long until an upgrade? probably not long so the NHC is probably reluctant to downgrade just to upgrade 12 hours or so later.

[SouthDadeFish]

Hard to tell where the center is on this recent TRMM pass:

[hurricanes1234]

Where's the best track update?

[Caribwxgirl]

A well-respected met on another board posted the following:

"My take is that if the Euro indeed has the mid-level ridging properly modeled out in time, then solutions further west than even what the Euro (and every other model out there) have currently, are NOT off the table.....It's not like we have a massively digging trough that turns Isaac.  And with the ongoing drought feeding back into the seasonal propensity to hold strongly onto ridging across the deep south, I wouldn't overlook the potential of Isaac to head back westward, once/if he reaches the GOM."

Bottom line is that track is not set in stone. While I believe the track into the eastern GOM is the most likely to verify, one cannot discount the possibility of a further west option at this time.

Another met on the other board seems to agree. Here is his/her reply post:

"Definitely agreed with this. If Issac can stay far enough south, it might even feel the effects of the "death ridge" near the southern Plains, and turn much more westerly towards Texas, even. The fact that all the data seems to stall Issac once it hits land is indicative of the lack of a steering flow. There is a weak trough that enters the midwest, which combined with a potential weakness in the Atlantic ridge that Issac could run into once it hits the Gulf, that could turn him northward towards the western Florida Panhandle. But if that is not enough, Issac could bend well back to the west, and hopefully relieve some drought conditions in the southern Plains.

I can see a Track "A" scenario with Issac approaching the western FLA Panhandle area, and a track "B" scenario of it bending much further west. Not sure I see an in-between scenario at this time."

Presented for your amusement and/or utter horror, a COMPLETELY UNOFFICIAL EXERCISE IN WHAT-IF:

"Scenario B" (Intensity? ...use your lurid imagination.)

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9357/huur.gif[/]

Certainly for my horror that's Gilbert's path and Jamaica was devastated...so thank you for not making such jokes

[SFLcane]

Cantore just said overall northern circulation seems to be taking over.

[cpdaman]

the storm is clearly still in the formative stages (to say the least) large circulations take time to get together sometimes and this is clearly happening here, the question i have is when does the enviornment get conductive for strengthening, wxman 57 i respect your opinion a ton, i'm sorry if i missed an earlier post covering this but i'm short for time.....i.e do conditions looks to change considerably tommorrow for this storm or friday re favorable conditions

[caribepr]

<---hoping all the islands affected fare well. I'm in California right now and home seems a far way away, as emails tell me the first bands are coming on now.

Hi my friend.Let's hope that nothing serious occurs in the islands and down the road.

Thinking of you, Luis! Hope there is no need for you to drive anywhere.

[hurricanes1234]

Hey, guys, could someone please post or direct me to the latest best track update?

[ozonepete]

The center is reforming again. recon having issues finding a good center fix. looks to be now well south of earlier fixes.

They're still following two centers. If you look at the overall circulation it still seems the eastern center will prevail. It is much more centered within the overall circulation envelope than the western center.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Where's the best track update?

Here is the 00z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2012082300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 622W, 40, 1004, TS

[hurricanes1234]

Where's the best track update?

Here is the 00z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2012082300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 622W, 40, 1004, TS

Thanks. One more question - why isn't it strengthening? It's been at 45 mph for quite a while now.