ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

So if this happens, weaker Ernie in the long term?

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFDL.... Still a bead for the FL Panhandle........

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[wxman57]

I noticed that the 00Z runs shifted considerably west from earlier runs for days 4-7. Only the GFDL is now indicating a track across eastern Cuba into the eastern Gulf. All others "aim" at the area from the upper TX coast south to Mexico. Closer to my track, so I like it.

[GCANE]

Question very quick about the Hot Towers... Hot Towers are very tall cumulonimbus clouds correct? Are they important in tropical cyclone development because they show substantial heating via condensation of the mid-upper troposphere?

Right on the money

A little more on hot towers

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQsKusqMdUU[/youtube]

[TwisterFanatic]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

Only about 9 more shifts until we learn the solution.

[mcheer23]

I noticed that the 00Z runs shifted considerably west from earlier runs for days 4-7. Only the GFDL is now indicating a track across eastern Cuba into the eastern Gulf. All others "aim" at the area from the upper TX coast south to Mexico. Closer to my track, so I like it.

Do you favor a texas track or mexico?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

Only about 9 more shifts until we learn the solution.

Truest thing I've heard all day.

[Weatherfreak000]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

So if this happens, weaker Ernie in the long term?

Can't help but think we should just trash the models and watch the storm. Regardless what the models show, we all know error in the model forecast this far out is bound to be low accuracy. These are the same models that opened Ernesto up to a wave where it's at now....and that didn't happen.

[stormhunter7]

if you take a look at SSMI/SSMIS-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html)... there was very little doubt that Ernesto was going to have a hard time in Eastern Caribbean... way too much tropical mositure.... my focus will be the ULL's that will form ahead of Ernesto. I'm not sold yet on the west solutions into Mexico... but will know more in about 36 hours of so.

[wxman57]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

So if this happens, weaker Ernie in the long term?

Possibly. But I'm not sure that the global models have the Gulf flow quite right by early next week. I noticed significant differences in the way the Euro and GFS was handling the weakness between the ridge over TX and the one off the East U.S. Coast. GFS developed a closed upper low in the NE Gulf ahead of 91L, driving that disturbance WNW toward SE LA as the upper low moves southwest ahead of and then SW of Ernesto's path. If the GFS is right, then Ernesto could turn a little NW near the Yucatan then back to the WNW as the upper low sinks SW, even if it's a stronger storm.

Is the GFS right? Who knows? We doubted it with Debby.

[ROCK]

I noticed that the 00Z runs shifted considerably west from earlier runs for days 4-7. Only the GFDL is now indicating a track across eastern Cuba into the eastern Gulf. All others "aim" at the area from the upper TX coast south to Mexico. Closer to my track, so I like it.

yeah I see that.....maybe the Yucatan can knock it down some.....the GFDL is the right outlier....

even the mighty NOGAPS has changed its tune....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Hopefully Nhc will post by 1045 getting tired.

[ROCK]

I noticed that the 00Z runs shifted considerably west from earlier runs for days 4-7. Only the GFDL is now indicating a track across eastern Cuba into the eastern Gulf. All others "aim" at the area from the upper TX coast south to Mexico. Closer to my track, so I like it.

Do you favor a texas track or mexico?

I think he is leaning MX right now.....he mentioned that earlier today...

[jinftl]

this time next week we still may not know...we are talking a good 8-10 days before the u.s. could potentially be impacted directly...if ever

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

Only about 9 more shifts until we learn the solution.

[bella_may]

I still don't understand why these models are keeping this storm so weak. They have to be seeing something we're not. Perhaps there's some dry air ernesto is going to run into?

[wxman57]

I don't think we'll have to wait 8-10 days. As fast as it's moving it could reach the Yucatan on Tuesday and be in the SW Gulf/BoC earlier on Wed.

[jinftl]

looks like some very dry area to his west on the latest water vapor image...that could certainly cause the storm to struggle some this weekend

I still don't understand why these models are keeping this storm so weak. They have to be seeing something we're not. Perhaps there's some dry air ernesto is going to run into?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

I don't find the left solutions likely whatsoever. Considering how favorable thermodynamic conditions will be in about 42 hours or so (refer to the 00z SHIPS -- mid-level RH, upper-level winds, and TCHP, are all prime) I could really see this cyclone taking off. In addition to that, 91L may also come in assistance to drawing Ernesto poleward. I'm still in the Yucatan Channel camp for the time being.

[cycloneye]

I don't think we'll have to wait 8-10 days. As fast as it's moving it could reach the Yucatan on Tuesday and be in the SW Gulf/BoC earlier on Wed.

It will slowdown in Western Caribbean right?

[Meteorcane]

Question very quick about the Hot Towers... Hot Towers are very tall cumulonimbus clouds correct? Are they important in tropical cyclone development because they show substantial heating via condensation of the mid-upper troposphere?

If you google "vortical hot towers" you will come across dozens of references to the role VHT's play in TC-genesis. In essense, VHT theory suggests on the storm scale, convectively generated low level positive PV anomalies are the primary mechanism in spinning up a TC. In recent years, this theory has gained favor over the CISK theory of TC-genesis, which is what I was taught in college.

The Role of “Vortical” Hot Towers in the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Diana (1984)

Eric A. Hendricks and Michael T. Montgomery
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Christopher A. Davis
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

At near-cloud-resolving scales, these vortical hot towers are the preferred mode of convection. They are demonstrated to be the most important influence to the formation of the tropical storm via a two-stage evolutionary process: (i) preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of multiple small-scale lower-tropospheric cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, and (ii) multiple mergers and axisymmetrization of these low-level PV anomalies. The local warm-core formation and tangential momentum spinup are shown to be dominated by the organizational process of the diabatically generated PV anomalies; the former process being accomplished by the strong vertical vorticity in the hot tower cores, which effectively traps the latent heat from moist convection. In addition to the organizational process of the PV anomalies, the cyclogenesis is enhanced by the aggregate diabatic heating associated with the vortical hot towers, which produces a net influx of low-level mean angular momentum throughout the genesis.

Thank You very much I am trying to better my knowledge of tropical cyclogenesis/development and this site is helping a lot.