ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#1881 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:53 pm

How about a little hurricane humor to offset the stress of Hurricane Sandy?

Thanks to a commenter at Wunderground for linking to a ROFLOL comic about hurricanes... taken from real NHC advisories from the 2005 season. Too funny!

http://www.xkcd.com/1126/

ROCK · #1882 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:55 pm

I dont know where to start with that post....what the guidance is teling us (EURO / GFS) is a 950ish or lower storm moving into Central NJ.....and we are about 50+ hours out. SO basically all the models are wrong and this is a non-event? :roll:

#1883 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:56 pm

From the discussion:

FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO
AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO
NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND
HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

#1884 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

ROCK · #1885 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:59 pm

510 miles worth of TS winds....unbelievable!!

Aric Dunn · #1886 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:05 pm

geezz it is just absolutely giant system .

kat61 · #1887 Postby **kat61** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:13 pm

I think You all are doing a great job informing your northern people about this storm! Don't question it! The NHC /NWS is the bomb in predicting! i heard bouy off Topsail showed 18'. shut me up if this is wrong... anyone know how to get that info? I'm not a scientist, just a social worker..... and S2K stalker for 8 years....

christchurchguy · #1888 Postby **christchurchguy** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:13 pm

Is Sandy now the largest atlantic storm in gale radius or diameter, I don't remember ever seeing any hurricanes with ts winds out that far in an advisory? How large were tip and igor by comparison?

#1889 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:14 pm

kat61 wrote:I think You all are doing a great job informing your northern people about this storm! Don't question it! The NHC /NWS is the bomb in predicting! i heard bouy off Topsail showed 18'. shut me up if this is wrong... anyone know how to get that info? I'm not a scientist, just a social worker..... and S2K stalker for 8 years....

Not Topsail, but Onslow Bay Outer buoy is showing 18.7 feet:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036

Frying Pan Shoals buoy is at 20 feet:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

#1890 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:17 pm

christchurchguy wrote:Is Sandy now the largest atlantic storm in gale radius or diameter, I don't remember ever seeing any hurricanes with ts winds out that far in an advisory? How large were tip and igor by comparison?

Typhoon Tips wind field was like 1380 miles..thats the record

#1891 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:19 pm

ROCK wrote:510 miles worth of TS winds....unbelievable!!

Such a radius is not uncommon for subtropical-extratropical storms. Sandy appears only partly tropical now. Subtropical/extratropical storms can be huge compared to the largest hurricanes. I still think that 4-5ft surge projection on the MDL website looks way too low. Yes, it's about an 11ft total height above mean lower low water (not MSL), but I would expect that Sandy might add 10 to 15 ft to the normal tides, not 4-5 ft. That's just a very rough guess, though. Wilma (2005) had TS winds extending out farther than Sandy does now after it passed south Florida and began to transition to ET.

#1892 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:27 pm

An interesting Sandy vs. Irene comparison posted by a commenter on Jeff Masters' blog at Wunderground when some were wondering, "this can't be worse than Irene?, right?"

I can't vouch totally for the accuracy of the stats below, but it matches what I've understood about the differences between the two storms.

Irene: Had TS force winds extending out 325 miles.
Sandy: Has TS force winds extending out over 400 miles, and expected to GROW. [KB adds: now at 510 miles!]

Irene: Moved parellel to the coast
Sandy: Will move almost perpendiclar to the coast...UNHEARD OF FOR A SYSTEM THIS SIZE

Irene: Had NYC on it's clean side, if you will
Sandy: Expected to come in at NJ, putting NYC AND Long Island at catastrophic risk for storm surge.

Irene: Purely tropical.
Sandy: Hybrid of Tropical and Nor-Easter.

Irene: Tides were average
Sandy: Tides are at monthly highs

Irene: Coastal temps were above average, but NOT 9 degree warmer!!
Sandy: More heat content for her tropical entity and when she transitions.

DISCLAIMER: I'M JUST AN AMATEUR. Listen to the experts.

KatDaddy · #1893 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:32 pm

I hope everyone in the NE US is taking this serious and not blowing it off as media hype. I wish the NHC would extend Hurricane Warnings up the coast. This is a very large storm and I don't believe the public understands the effect of 100s of miles of a SE fetch across much of the Atlantic pushing onshore.

#1894 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:35 pm

The one significant way in which Irene was worse, however - at least in terms of major inland flooding in NJ, NY and Vermont: for Irene the ground was already saturated throughout north Jersey and streams & rivers at high levels.

Things are *generally* drier in the region right now, so that's a real mercy.

Also, while trees are still in leaf in much of the region, in some areas much of the leaf cover will be down already, that may perhaps lessen tree falls and power outages? (but of course, fallen leaves can block gutters and storm sewers...)

kat61 · #1895 Postby **kat61** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:36 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
kat61 wrote:I think You all are doing a great job informing your northern people about this storm! Don't question it! The NHC /NWS is the bomb in predicting! i heard bouy off Topsail showed 18'. shut me up if this is wrong... anyone know how to get that info? I'm not a scientist, just a social worker..... and S2K stalker for 8 years....

Not Topsail, but Onslow Bay Outer buoy is showing 18.7 feet:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036

Frying Pan Shoals buoy is at 20 feet:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

Tx Brun..I'm in Hampstead. That's big H2O.!

#1896 Postby **Peach** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:39 pm

ROCK wrote:510 miles worth of TS winds....unbelievable!!

Now it is 540 I GUESS; earlier, the NHC had 450 miles from THE CENTER which would be 900. Now just '540' miles.

#1897 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:45 pm

kat61 wrote:Tx Brun..I'm in Hampstead. That's big H2O.!

No problem! Here is the Southeast buoy map:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml

You can see the three boxes, those zoom in to those areas.

#1898 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:46 pm

Dr. Jeff Masters just posted the link to this 1 min GOES loop

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor/1 ... _182_X.mov

and added this comment:
This impressive 1-min GOES loop shows the convection fighting against the shear, and the vortex tilt.

Jeff Masters

[by the way, does anyone know how one can link an individual comment entry at Wunderground? It's driving me nuts that I can't simply post the link to a specific comment... thanks]

#1899 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:53 pm

Cool view from TRMM yesterday

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Eve ... imated.gif

#1900 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:05 pm

Here's the latest Watches and Warnings map from NOAA

By my count 10 entire states & D.C. are covered in watches and warnings of some kind: Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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