ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[KWT]

I wonder whether there is a chance that we'll get a coastal rider, IE a system that does get further NE but still ends up being forced westwards along the N/far.N of the Gulf as the upper high builds?

Maybe a TS version of Elena or something like that?

[bamajammer4eva]

Whats with all the tornadoes?? They say they occur in LAND-FALLING tropical systems which this one is not yet. Are the conditions in this tropical system different than usual?

[KWT]

How often are we going to get flights Cycloneye?

[SunnyThoughts]

I wonder whether there is a chance that we'll get a coastal rider, IE a system that does get further NE but still ends up being forced westwards along the N/far.N of the Gulf as the upper high builds?

Maybe a TS version of Elena or something like that?

One of the models in the last couple days had that exact scenario. Put it almost inland at ala/miss border...then just scraped the coast to the west.

[HouTXmetro]

Would hardly call any model a success right now. A sheared mess with all the action to the North and East and a Naked LLC heading towards Texas thus far. To my knowledge known of the models predicted this. Last I checked the Euro wants to bomb this going towards Texas, which isn't looking likely at this point.

Just my amateur opinion.

GFS has been barking the quicker organization route for days and days hence connecting with the trough. Majority of the other globals hashown a very slow process with debby and not really strengthening (per the models) until it's westward track from the northern gulf.

Last Euro showed it bombing. I don't see that happening IMHO

Neither does the NHC. They don't show Debby gaining Hurricane Status let alone bombing.

[KWT]

Interestingly the ECM and the 12z HWRF both have the exact same presentation for this system, which is for a system that is being sheared from the east (which is the opposite to what it is right now) which is quite cool, more notable on the HWRF.

[psyclone]

Here in North Pinellas County the local NWS Say's we are suppose to get flooding rains.
all we have so far is a light mist. Maybe there is something to the Tampa shield legend.

we'll have a much better chance at heavy rainfall tomorrow and tomorrow night when the center gets closer to our latitude allowing for convergence near the coast. today that's been over south florida. the nws did not forecast heavy rain for us today and they are not bullish tonight either. in general, convection has been weakening as it come up this way from south florida but tomorrow the potential will be higher. if they're more confident of heavy rain rain they will issue a flood watch. currently there's a coastal flood advisory for tampa bay north for the potential for high tides but nothing for heavy rain-induced freshwater flooding.

[stormhunter7]

agree with ya Air Force Met... the ULL will keep the west side in check for another 24 hours.. the center should throw out a few more new vorts to the NE of COC through the evening.

[wkwally]

Whats with all the tornadoes?? They say they occur in LAND-FALLING tropical systems which this one is not yet. Are the conditions in this tropical system different than usual?

The bands are coming asore and from the spinoff they cause tornados

[crimi481]

Wow - ULL aiding in supplying large influx of Tropical moisture bands from Yuctan/ Mexico
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Could get interesting

[ozonepete]

Whats with all the tornadoes?? They say they occur in LAND-FALLING tropical systems which this one is not yet. Are the conditions in this tropical system different than usual?

That's true but of course they occur in the right quadrant (mainly right-front but doesn't have to be) of any TC that is near land as well. Doesn't have to be land-falling.

[Ntxw]

Last Euro showed it bombing. I don't see that happening IMHO

Euro does not have a sub 1000mb system until 48 hours since it's run which is at least mid Monday. And even longer than that for "deepening" so until we reach that point, there's not verification yet. But the previous GFS forecast of nearing Florida big bend several days ago by now has not happened.

[cycloneye]

How often are we going to get flights Cycloneye?

This was Saturday's TCPOD.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 231530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
       A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 23/2245Z
       D. 27.5N 88.2W
       E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
       A. 25/1200,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
       C. 25/1045Z
       D. 27.5N 88.2W
       E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
    3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
       WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.

[KWT]

One of the models in the last couple days had that exact scenario. Put it almost inland at ala/miss border...then just scraped the coast to the west.

Its certainly an interesting possible solution, I'm personally doubtful the upper trough will have quite enough strength to lift this system out but any relocations of the center will help to both send it further NE and get it closer to that upper trough.

[KatDaddy]

This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should that materialize.

[ozonepete]

This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should that materialize.

https://p.twimg.com/AwGwdzSCEAI8VTe.jpg

Just for the record, everone on here should know that JB is not a tropical meterologist or a hurricane specialist.

[wkwally]

Not that I wish a hurricane on anyone but I am hoping for it to stay north of Brownsville

[KWT]

I personally think KD that Joe's strength is rather optimistic to say the least, I'm doubtful this system will ever be able to wrap itself around, these types of systems nearly always keep a lop-sided comma type presentation. That being said I wouldn't be shocked if at some point it does make a run at a hurricane, regardless of track (as Chris showed, systems heading NE with some Baroclinic strengthening can get surprising strong) but obviously it could just as easily stay as a sheared system that stays around the 40-50kt range.

[caneman]

Last Euro showed it bombing. I don't see that happening IMHO

Euro does not have a sub 1000mb system until 48 hours since it's run which is at least mid Monday. And even longer than that for "deepening" so until we reach that point, there's not verification yet. But the previous GFS forecast of nearing Florida big bend several days ago by now has not happened.

Neither is verifying well at this point. You have sheared storm with the mass heading towards North Florida and a naked swirl heading for Texas. Nothing to verify based on that and this early.

[wkwally]

I think it is a little too early to make a call if it is going to become a hurricane and to make a pinpoint landfall