ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Pretty good drop in shear

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[KBBOCA]

Here's the Executive Summary of the latest (5:30 p.m. EDT) briefing of the NWS office in Mt. Holly, NJ, which covers the Philly forecast area, Delaware, and most of NJ.

Hurricane Sandy will have a major impact on our region over the next several days:
• Strong damaging sustained winds 35 to 50 mph over a prolonged period of time (24 to 48 hours), with gusts up to near hurricane strength. Strongest winds are expected south and east of the I-95 corridor.
• Extremely heavy rainfall.
• Major to record inland flooding along streams and rivers.
• Major to record coastal flooding. The full moon on October 29 just makes things worse.
• Options for the storm to miss our area are rapidly dwindling. Confidence on the storm having a major impact on our region continues to increase. The focus of efforts should be on when Sandy hits our region, not if Sandy hits our region.
• Next briefing package will be issued by Noon on Sunday, October 28th.
• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

You can see the full presentation here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/pa ... iefing.pdf

[CrazyC83]

The bizarre thing of this storm: the center is supposed to pass over me on Thursday as a depression, but the worst should be Monday night - over 2 full days earlier!

[kat61]

Tx Brun..I'm in Hampstead. That's big H2O.!

No problem! Here is the Southeast buoy map:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml

You can see the three boxes, those zoom in to those areas.

per wect6..winds at 38 in Surf City. breaks at 20' out toward the gulf stream

[KBBOCA]

Here's another page from the current Philly forecast area briefing, focusing on storm surge:

Things to focus on regarding coastal flooding for the Atlantic Coast, Delaware Bay & Raritan Bay
•The high tides to focus on are the two high tides on Sunday and the two high tides on Monday
–The center of the storm will have moved inland by Tuesday morning and the Tuesday morning high tide is expected to be considerably lower than the preceding high tides
•The two high tides on Monday will be the most dangerous high tides, with major to record coastal flooding expected. Between the coastal flooding and expected high winds, the barrier islands may be cut off from the mainland during both high tides.
•Water is the most life threatening aspect of this storm. Hurricane Sandy is already the deadliest hurricane of the 2012 season. Please respect its power and heed the advice of local and state officials regarding any evacuations.

note: this is briefing #7

My hats off to those who have written this presentation. They are doubtless saving lives with such clear, user-friendly info.

[brunota2003]

per wect6..winds at 38 in Surf City. breaks at 20' out toward the gulf stream

Yep...I just got this:

Cherry Branch Ferry (near Havelock) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, they have suspended ferry operations.

That's between Morehead City and New Bern.

[kat61]

per wect6..winds at 38 in Surf City. breaks at 20' out toward the gulf stream

Yep...I just got this:

Cherry Branch Ferry (near Havelock) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, they have suspended ferry operations.

That's between Morehead City and New Bern.

It that 'Cherry Point'?

[brunota2003]

It that 'Cherry Point'?

A tad east of MCAS Cherry Point

[ozonepete]

All these trends just go to show that you really need a major hurricane accelerating from the Bahamas, rather than a late-season nor’easter-type hybrid, and a major hurricane that phases directly (à la 1938, a hybrid that really phased completely due to its location in the jet entrance), to really deliver the full punch of high winds and large surge to the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.

Just for you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednes ... rm_of_1962

[KBBOCA]

So, now I've gone to the page for the New York area NWS office.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/

I have to say, the contrast with the Mount Holly office in terms of clear preparedness info is striking.

Here is a one page and not very helpful summary as of Sat. night.
http://ow.ly/i/14bd5

Of course there are the normal forecast statements but the last text public info statement was Fri night. Very concerning, though from what I'm reading local Emergency managers seem to be doing a good job.

This is not to bash the NY Forecast office, but clearly they could do better in communicating, as the Philly office has done.

[capepoint]

per wect6..winds at 38 in Surf City. breaks at 20' out toward the gulf stream

Yep...I just got this:

Cherry Branch Ferry (near Havelock) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, they have suspended ferry operations.

That's between Morehead City and New Bern.

Cedar Island/Ocracoke, Swan Quarter/Ocracoke, Hatteras Inlet, and Cherry Branch/Minnesott ferries have all shut-down due to weather. There is no ferry service to Ocracoke at all now, so the Island is isolated. Also, overwash on NC 12 north of Hatteras has Buxton and the southern Hatteras Island communities isolated as well. Bayview-Arora and Southport-Fort Fisher ferries continuing to run as long as conditions allow. Reports of water rises over 3 feet already along the Neuse River and southern Pamlico sound.

We have been getting gusts in the 30-40 range since early this afternoon. Steady but light to moderate rain.

[CrazyC83]

All these trends just go to show that you really need a major hurricane accelerating from the Bahamas, rather than a late-season nor’easter-type hybrid, and a major hurricane that phases directly (à la 1938, a hybrid that really phased completely due to its location in the jet entrance), to really deliver the full punch of high winds and large surge to the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.

Just for you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednes ... rm_of_1962

If Irene had this setup, how would it have been different?

[kat61]

per wect6..winds at 38 in Surf City. breaks at 20' out toward the gulf stream

Yep...I just got this:

Cherry Branch Ferry (near Havelock) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, they have suspended ferry operations.

That's between Morehead City and New Bern.

Cedar Island/Ocracoke, Swan Quarter/Ocracoke, Hatteras Inlet, and Cherry Branch/Minnesott ferries have all shut-down due to weather. There is no ferry service to Ocracoke at all now, so the Island is isolated. Also, overwash on NC 12 north of Hatteras has Buxton and the southern Hatteras Island communities isolated as well. Bayview-Arora and Southport-Fort Fisher ferries continuing to run as long as conditions allow. Reports of water rises over 3 feet already along the Neuse River and southern Pamlico sound.

We have been getting gusts in the 30-40 range since early this afternoon. Steady but light to moderate rain.

Winds 42 at Topsial now...per news

[brunota2003]

Cherry Branch Ferry reporting water levels are 4 feet above normal.

[Terry]

I was just in Ocracoke for a week earlier this month. I'd love to know what is going on there. Feel free to PM me with info. That island always seems to come out Ok in the end. I do remember Irene last year a bit further north when all of the water left Pamlico Sound. Unreal.

per wect6..winds at 38 in Surf City. breaks at 20' out toward the gulf stream

Yep...I just got this:

Cherry Branch Ferry (near Havelock) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, they have suspended ferry operations.

That's between Morehead City and New Bern.

Cedar Island/Ocracoke, Swan Quarter/Ocracoke, Hatteras Inlet, and Cherry Branch/Minnesott ferries have all shut-down due to weather. There is no ferry service to Ocracoke at all now, so the Island is isolated. Also, overwash on NC 12 north of Hatteras has Buxton and the southern Hatteras Island communities isolated as well. Bayview-Arora and Southport-Fort Fisher ferries continuing to run as long as conditions allow. Reports of water rises over 3 feet already along the Neuse River and southern Pamlico sound.

We have been getting gusts in the 30-40 range since early this afternoon. Steady but light to moderate rain.

[KBBOCA]

The current HWind analysis is out (19:30 GMT):

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

The IKE destructive potential numbers keep going UP.
Wind is now 2.9 on a scale of 0 - 6
Surge / flooding is now 5.6 on a scale of 0 - 6

Just.wow.

I'm just an amateur. But this is an official NHC research tool / product. The trend is NOT our friend right now.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers to those impacted and those that will be impacted by this event.
This storm has already killed one too many in it's lifetime.

[KBBOCA]

Nice image from NRL Monteray in the comments at Wunderground which shows something of the size of Sandy.

[artist]

My thoughts and preayers to all as well. Remember to check in when you can do so safely.

[Peach]

Is Sandy now the largest atlantic storm in gale radius or diameter, I don't remember ever seeing any hurricanes with ts winds out that far in an advisory? How large were tip and igor by comparison?

Typhoon Tips wind field was like 1380 miles..thats the record

She is reported to be ONE of the lagest in the Atlantic basin. And she still awaits her sisters, low trough from the west, cold from the north. 48 hours is better than 72, but the 10-18 we usually get in my area of Florida is better, as long as it is a TS or Cat. 1. We had both Debby & Beryl this year, within a month of each other; nothing but wind & clouds from Sandy.