ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

So here is what I got from this last GFS run...

1st Landfall is slightly East of the 18z @ +108 in the Florida Keys and Extreme SW Florida mainland putting the NE quad over Metro Dade and Broward counties

2nd Landfall West of the 18z Run @ @ +147 Just east of Panama City

Yeah, Port St. Joe/ Apalachicola area Which means it moves farther north in the beginning...but farther west as it moves into the gulf.

[Hurricane Alexis]

If the GFS did indeed ingest some of those sondes from the NOAA flight today...it would have a little more information than other models. Perhaps that is why it moved a little farther west towards the Euro? Just throwing out some thoughts here.

It didn't move farther west, at least in the 1st landfall.

[deltadog03]

Looks like the GFS is a SMIDGE W from the 12z run...looks like a big bend hit and moving NNW

[SunnyThoughts]

If the GFS did indeed ingest some of those sondes from the NOAA flight today...it would have a little more information than other models. Perhaps that is why it moved a little farther west towards the Euro? Just throwing out some thoughts here.

It didn't move farther west, at least in the 1st landfall.

Thats true...but the 2nd landfall is farther west. It was into the big bend area last run.

[meriland23]

just for S&G, here is the big difference in GFS's predicted position at the same exact time next week between the new 0z, and todays 12z, and 18z

0Z (144 hr)



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18Z (150 hr)



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12Z (156 hr)



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[Ikester]

I dunno, IMO the ''shifts'' are pretty negligible to me. Any strength hurricane hitting east of Panama City is going to cause major surge issues into the big bend. Get back to me when it SHIFTS west or east---not by 5 or 6 miles.

[CourierPR]

He posted it (9 mins ago). #Research

"GFS takes track west of mine after Sunday and has very similar track from Keys on Sunday night and Monday to 1935 "

The graphic is a depiction of the 1935 hurricane, not Isaac.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks for posting that Meriland. Moving slightly farther west with each run. argggg Oh well, hopefully the mountains will tear it to pieces and it will never be able to regain any kind of strength. Hope everyone stays safe on any of the Islands he decides to cross before heading into the gulf, if he does indeed head to the gulf.

[northjaxpro]

I enjoy coming on here analyzing the models, but, I have to say some of the comments made by a few of our Storm2K members can be left unsaid.

Folks, you have to understand that many people during times like this are coming on here to learn about the process of how storms develop and what the models are showing in determining to the best scientific degree of where these tropical cyclones are going. This notion of a "models battle" between the GFS and the EURO is just getting to be tiresome to me.

Let us just recognize that these two models are the best resources we have in trying to best come up with a solution of a cyclone's path. Eventually, the goal by the model suites is to come to as close to a consensus as we can possibly achieve.

So, let us all have a good sensible and respectable debate and discussion with the model runs. That is what I come to expect from Storm2K!

[Wthrman13]

Well, Euro and GFS definitely getting closer together. I've decided NOT to look at intensity right now, as you guys have repeatedly told us over and over that these models don't do intensity very well.

Indeed Intensity forecasting for TC's is little more than a crap shoot with our current capabilities. At best we can forecast general trends, and the purely statistical models are often just as good as our dynamic ones. As far as the trend in the models is concerned, it does seem as if the GFS is trending a bit toward the ECMWF. The overall agreement in the models track-wise is actually pretty decent for this storm, but the fact that a good chunk of the envelope lies right over Cuba throws a huge monkey wrench into the intensity forecast, because very small deviations in the track once it nears Cuba could spell very different outcomes intensity-wise once it emerges into the FL straits/Gulf. At this point, I think a track east of FL up the Atlantic seaboard is very unlikely. One thing that concerns me is that both the GFS and Euro show a robust, large, intensifying TC over the Gulf, despite the land interaction. Since neither model can actually resolve the inner core convection, the best way to interpret this (I haven't looked at the details of the upper-level flow, though) is that the overall large scale conditions are forecast by these models to be favorable once the system enters the Gulf. How intense the system will get given this favorable environment depends substantially on how intact the inner core is at that time, and forecasting that is virtually impossible at this point.

[Bocadude85]

So here is what I got from this last GFS run...

1st Landfall is slightly East of the 18z @ +108 in the Florida Keys and Extreme SW Florida mainland putting the NE quad over Metro Dade and Broward counties

2nd Landfall West of the 18z Run @ @ +147 Just east of Panama City

Yeah, Port St. Joe/ Apalachicola area Which means it moves farther north in the beginning...but farther west as it moves into the gulf.

If this storm follows the GFS predicted track I can not see how SE Fla would not go under at least a hurricane watch.. one wobble to the north and this thing makes landfall in Se Fla. Its such a odd angle of approach that any change in direction can have a major impact on where landfall occurs.

[meriland23]

I don't know why GFS is so hell bent on it maintaining if not gaining strength over north cuba.. makes no sense, is this some error?

[SunnyThoughts]

Wthrman13, thanks so much for your input, and analysis. Very informative.

[ROCK]

I dunno, IMO the ''shifts'' are pretty negligible to me. Any strength hurricane hitting east of Panama City is going to cause major surge issues into the big bend. Get back to me when it SHIFTS west or east---not by 5 or 6 miles.

so you discount the EURO solution correct? I am curious.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think one thing that we need to take into account will be center relocation due to the disruption that is sure to happen when it crosses Hispaniola and Cuba. A center relocation to the north of Hispaniola sooner than what the models are showing could throw a big wrench into the future track and intensity of the system.

SFT

[SunnyThoughts]

So here is what I got from this last GFS run...

1st Landfall is slightly East of the 18z @ +108 in the Florida Keys and Extreme SW Florida mainland putting the NE quad over Metro Dade and Broward counties

2nd Landfall West of the 18z Run @ @ +147 Just east of Panama City

Yeah, Port St. Joe/ Apalachicola area Which means it moves farther north in the beginning...but farther west as it moves into the gulf.

If this storm follows the GFS predicted track I can not see how SE Fla would not go under at least a hurricane watch.. one wobble to the north and this thing makes landfall in Se Fla. Its such a odd angle of approach that any change in direction can have a major impact on where landfall occurs.

Oh I agree with you on that...the tip of the peninsula certainly isn't very wide and depending on the size and strength of the storm at that time, wouldn't take much for the entire southern tip of Fla..eastern and western side..to experience the same conditions perhaps.

[SapphireSea]

Probobly sounds like a resolution issue in the models. The models are probobly considering the core to be over water when it's 1/2 in and 1/2 out. In real life, the LLC will be much more defined and easy to pinpoint. If the storm's circulation is large enough like Ike and Jeanne, they can really weather off the disruptions the mountains have on them. Also, the forward motion while crossing the mountains will mitigate the impact the mountains will have on generating convection and upkeeping the center. It is not like a Mexico landfall where the storm's center is surrounded by mountains and you have a full disruption of the CDO for 12+ hours. This will be a 4-6 hour maximum event. It is completely possible for a storm to strengthen with good inflow even while on higher land.

[northjaxpro]

I think one thing that we need to take into account will be center relocation due to the disruption that is sure to happen when it crosses Hispaniola and Cuba. A center relocation to the north of Hispaniola sooner than what the models are showing could throw a big wrench into the future track and intensity of the system.

SFT

This is a very good thought and assessment SFT. I agree. Center reformation after interacting with Cuba and Haiti will be a critical factor as we approach that juncture.

[Ikester]

I dunno, IMO the ''shifts'' are pretty negligible to me. Any strength hurricane hitting east of Panama City is going to cause major surge issues into the big bend. Get back to me when it SHIFTS west or east---not by 5 or 6 miles.

so you discount the EURO solution correct? I am curious.

I didn't say that. I just don't bet everything I have on a model that has done poorly this year. It's been my experience that ridges are overblown by the models and the strength of troughs is underplayed. I've posted this before and I'll post it again here: there was a study done by a forecaster at HGX (Houston) that found hurricanes in the gulf that miss their forecast points miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time.

[gatorcane]

I dunno, IMO the ''shifts'' are pretty negligible to me. Any strength hurricane hitting east of Panama City is going to cause major surge issues into the big bend. Get back to me when it SHIFTS west or east---not by 5 or 6 miles.

so you discount the EURO solution correct? I am curious.

Not discount but its definitely an outlier. Not only that but the new GFS has hands-down outperformed the Euro this year. I would go with the GFS solution. Yes the GFS has shifted west a little but in the end its quite neglible and peninsula Florida, especially the west coast is in a high risk zone at the moment.