ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

IMO,the more it delays the development phase,the more west it goes and the first on the line of fire are the Lesser Antilles islands.

[KWT]

IMO,the more it delays the development phase,the more west it goes and the first on the line of fire are the Lesser Antilles islands.

I'm very interested to see what its forward speed is like over the next 24-48hrs, the ECM is a good bit quicker than the GFS. That should give a good indication of what is likely with regards to develop in the next few days.

10% looks reasonable enough to me for now though.

[hurricanes1234]

The storm looks fat.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone know of a website that updates their eastern Atlantic images every 30 minutes? The Latest Satellite Imagery has eastern Atlantic images, but they update theirs every 6 hours, which is too long apart for me. I need one that updates the eastern Atlantic every 30 minutes.

[Fego]

Does anyone know of a website that updates their eastern Atlantic images every 30 minutes? The Latest Satellite Imagery has eastern Atlantic images, but they update theirs every 6 hours, which is too long apart for me. I need one that updates the eastern Atlantic every 30 minutes.

may be this two...

http://sat24.com/en/wa

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT ... ntvis.html

[jconsor]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm (every hour)

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm (every 30 min)

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/om ... sat_3.html (every hour - entire W. Hemisphere)

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/sat_enh_atl.html (enhanced IR - every 3 hours)

Does anyone know of a website that updates their eastern Atlantic images every 30 minutes? The Latest Satellite Imagery has eastern Atlantic images, but they update theirs every 6 hours, which is too long apart for me. I need one that updates the eastern Atlantic every 30 minutes.

[Gustywind]

Given SSD, looks like 94L position is more south and the west compared to the previous one. As Cycloneye cleary mentionned it, this could have a significant importance for us in the Lesser Antilles. Let's wait and see for now.

17/1145 UTC 11.1N 23.1W TOO WEAK 94L
17/0545 UTC 11.6N 18.5W TOO WEAK 94L

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD



THE MOST RECENT RAWINSONDE DATA FOR BAMAKO IN MALI SHOW
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THAT STATION DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W.
THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

[KWT]

Yep so looks like this one has emerged a good deal south of where the last one that became Gordon has done.

[Blown Away]

Kind of hard to imagine that the same pattern would be in place for so many seasons in a row - allowing only Irene to get past the proverbial goalie. No matter, I always think of Frances in 2004 and how so many people wrote it off immediately as "going fishing". Look how that turned out. The pattern could change just enough but it is really tough to see that happening since we've in this re-curve rut for so long. I guess we will just have to watch and wait it out....

Past 6 seasons, Ike/Irene are the only hurricanes to go above the Caribbean and make a CONUS landfall.

[otowntiger]

Past 6 seasons, Ike/Irene are the only hurricanes to go above the Caribbean and make a CONUS landfall.

Frankly isn't that a rarity anyway? I mean even under normal circumstances (whatever 'normal' is) its rare for a storm to go north of the islands and yet still affect the U.S. mainland without re-curving, right? It seems that if you look at any historical map depicting the tracks of all storms of all time you will see that way more re-curve in similar positions than don't, am I right? Of course its a different story for storms that 'shoot the gap' through the Caribbean and get under the Greater Antilles.

[Aric Dunn]

its is extremely close to being a TD. there are signs of low level banding. deep persistent convection. with some visible images this morning they should go up to probably 40 or 50 at 2.

[CrazyC83]

I don't like the looks of this one...and if 07L becomes Helene, we might see the curse of the "I" storm again (Isaac)

[KWT]

I also strongly suspect this will become a major hurricane unless it shoots NW very early, which it shouldn't do.

[ROCK]

I also strongly suspect this will become a major hurricane unless it shoots NW very early, which it shouldn't do.

yep, should have ideal conditions as the GFS and EURO seem to think....as well as the SHIPS intensity model which I thought was a bit extreme but conditions look good right now.....huge system BTW....

[CrazyC83]

I also strongly suspect this will become a major hurricane unless it shoots NW very early, which it shouldn't do.

yep, should have ideal conditions as the GFS and EURO seem to think....as well as the SHIPS intensity model which I thought was a bit extreme but conditions look good right now.....huge system BTW....

If that SHIPS run verifies, most likely this becomes at least a Cat 4 down the road...

[EBrads146]

Edit:
I don't like the looks of this, I easily see this becoming a major down the road as well.
Just my opinion.

[tolakram]

saved loop



from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Click on the I for the invest, select VIS/SWIR and click the ANIGIF button to animate the image. Once working click the capture button at the top, which will generate an animated GIF you can save and upload to imageshack (or the image server of your choice) to display here.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I honestly want to watch this, I live on the east coast. Would say a 20-30 at 2. Would love to see my first hurricane in over 20 years.

[CrazyC83]

I honestly want to watch this, I live on the east coast. Would say a 20-30 at 2. Would love to see my first hurricane in over 20 years.

What was your last hurricane?

I agree on those probabilities. Being so far from land, they can be more conservative, unlike with ex-TD7 which they would have to upgrade immediately.