ATL: LESLIE - Models

[rainstorm]

has the 12z gfs come out yet?

[SFLcane]

has the 12z gfs come out yet?

Yup.. Through 200hrs it recurves 98L pretty quickly into open atlantic.

[Jevo]

Yeah... Shows a big opening to recurve

Like a big ole road that says turn right here

[rainstorm]

that actually looks a bit further west than 0z

[Caesarp]

So if you were going to ST. Kitts/Nevis tomorrow (through Sept. 4th), would you still go?

[rainstorm]

if it were me i would go.

[ROCK]

So if you were going to ST. Kitts/Nevis tomorrow (through Sept. 4th), would you still go?

take out some insurance on the trip?

[KWT]

Hmmm if you take a look back at the Issac model thread, you'll see the GFS constantly tried to recurve that one out to sea, but it kept on trucking westwards and made abit of a fool out of the models.

Seems like the models have under-estimated the upper ridge over previous weeks, though obviously this time Kirk does throw some uncertainty into the mix.

[Hurricaneman]

Hmmm if you take a look back at the Issac model thread, you'll see the GFS constantly tried to recurve that one out to sea, but it kept on trucking westwards and made abit of a fool out of the models.

Seems like the models have under-estimated the upper ridge over previous weeks, though obviously this time Kirk does throw some uncertainty into the mix.

Isaac could also have an impact on the track of 98L, the GFS seems to imply that

[HurricaneWarning92]

Caesarp, i would go. I would not throw away 3,000 bucks specially as this hasnt even developed yet. It is still a wave. Just keep an eye on it.

[KWT]

Isaac could also have an impact on the track of 98L, the GFS seems to imply that

Yep that makes alot of sense to me, as it is going to evnetually eject NE though exactly how quick that happens we'll have to see.

I think like Issac, if it gets going quickly, there will probably be enough of a weakness to lift it out, if it stays weak than its got a decent chance of not totally recurving out.

[Caesarp]

So if you were going to ST. Kitts/Nevis tomorrow (through Sept. 4th), would you still go?

take out some insurance on the trip?

I did. But the insurance called "cancel for any reason" requires cancellation by 48 hrs before you leave. That time has passed. All of the insurance products are like that.

I care more about my safety than money anyway. So I would gladly stay home and eat the costs, than risk being on some island with little escape routes and massive inconvenience if everyone tries to leave at the same time.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My guess on track:



Can anybody share theirs?

EDIT:Models have shifted westward very recently

[ROCK]

12Z CMC out to sea

12Z NOGAPS out to sea

12Z EURO rolling out....seems to gain some lat right off the bat...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

[mpic]

My first concern with this invest was a repeat of Rita. Good to see preliminaries are saying otherwise.

[KWT]

Well the ECM curves it up very early, but its a little hard to see that when this run has this system still at 39W at 12z tomorrow when its already at 37W.

I think a general 280-290 track is likely over the enxt few days, but its hardly going to shot NW IMO like the the ECM has and I doubt it moves quite as slow as that model thinks to start with either.

[Meteorcane]

Yeah nothing to indicate a rapid meridional component to its motion in the near future, although I do feel there will be a big enough weakness to recurve it (I also feel it could well become the first system to develop east of the Caribbean this season (that was below 20N) which would aid in any possible recurvature. I think the strength of the trades is a bit lower over this portion of the atlantic then it was for Isaac/Ernesto (probably due to the weaker subtropical ridge) which could allow less shear. It still does have some significant SAL just to the northwest of it which could hold it in check somewhat. However, if it stays weak it could certainly pose some threat for the islands.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Anthysteg00]

It's tough to say, vorticity images suggest this could actually ramp up fairly quickly. However, I am counting on the dry air that has punished storms before they reach the Lesser Antilles to potentially fight back, and keep convection from blossoming for a while. Remember Kirk's genesis anyone? Kirk was an invest for a great deal of time dealing with dry air before it could really get it's act together.

Time will tell, just some thoughts I figured to share. I'm thinking as seems to be the case so often the models are perhaps ramping this up a bit too quickly. WV loop shows a mass of sinking dry air heading straight for him. Maybe CLP5 is good model for this scenario? lol.

[blp]

The system appears to be racing off to west at a good clip. Unless it slows down and starts gaining lattitude it may miss the model projection on the Euro in 24 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/flash-vis-long.html

18z Best Track 13.3N 37.6W

12Z Euro 24hr projection -- 14.8N 39.5W


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Jevo]

18z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)