EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Barely a hurricane is now forecast.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...BUD STILL SLOW TO ORGANIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND BUD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

BUD CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BENEATH A RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION. A
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT AN APPARENT DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED
FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

BUD HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND SPED UP A BIT WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 305/12 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
REASONING...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE ENVELOPE
OF SOLUTIONS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THE NHC FORECAST
THROUGH DAY 3 IS LIKEWISE NUDGED TO THE WEST...LYING ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION OF BUD WILL BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST
POSITIONS ARE NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND KEEP
THE CENTER OF BUD OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE ANALYZED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT BELLIGERENT AT THE
MOMENT...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A QUANDARY WHY BUD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE
TO STRENGTHEN. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX FURTHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION IS DECREASING. ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT MAY BE
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 250 MB THAT WILL BE
IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A FEW DAYS...AS
SHOWN BY FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VORTEX WEAKENING AS IT HEADS
TOWARD MEXICO...AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS BUD
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BUD
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL FORECAST TIMES.

EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE
STAYING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH
THE COAST. WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN
ERRORS STILL SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.0N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.6N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.5N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.4N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.4N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, this storm is difficult to predict.

[Kingarabian]

The LLC is now under some solid convection. Maybe it can finally get it's act together.

[cycloneye]

The latest discussion eludes to the new CDO feature.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 105.0W AT 22/2100 UTC
...OR ABOUT 455 NM SSW OF ZIHUANTANEJO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT EARLIER WAS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW BENEATH AN INCREASING CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT REPRESENT AND APPARENT SMALL CDO
TYPE FEATURE. OVERALL...BUD IS SHOWING ORGANIZATION WITH
IN ITS CLOUD/CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE
READILY EVIDENT IN THE W SEMICIRCLE WITH ONE NOTABLE OUTER
BAND IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS TO
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM IN THE SW
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W...AND MARKS THE OUTER
BAND IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BAND THERE FROM 11N96W TO 13N100W TO 14N103W.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking better now.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest imagery.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

WHXX01 KWBC 230019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120523 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120523 0000 120523 1200 120524 0000 120524 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 84.3W 19.5N 84.4W 20.4N 84.3W 21.7N 84.5W
BAMD 18.5N 84.3W 20.5N 82.0W 23.4N 79.6W 27.2N 76.9W
BAMM 18.5N 84.3W 20.1N 83.4W 22.0N 82.5W 24.3N 81.9W
LBAR 18.5N 84.3W 19.9N 83.3W 22.4N 82.3W 25.5N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120525 0000 120526 0000 120527 0000 120528 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 84.2W 24.8N 85.3W 25.1N 89.4W 26.4N 94.2W
BAMD 31.1N 73.4W 34.5N 63.6W 32.8N 58.2W 29.4N 54.2W
BAMM 26.8N 81.4W 28.0N 81.1W 26.4N 83.8W 25.4N 87.9W
LBAR 28.9N 79.0W 33.1N 70.9W 32.1N 64.8W 27.8N 64.2W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 84.3W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 130NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Same intensity of 35kts.

EP, 02, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1055W, 35, 1004, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Uploaded with imageshack.us

[floridasun78]

dont get much support yet

[cycloneye]

The cruise ship (Millenium) that has been tracking torwards Puerto Vallarta is staying on course and it looks like it will be on the other side of Bud before the storm gets closer to the coast.But for sure they will get some increase in waves.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9

[Kingarabian]

CIMSS has this as "weakening" now?

[cycloneye]

Not forecast to be a hurricane anymore.Wow,what a change from first forecast.


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
0300 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 105.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 105.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...BUD NOT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 105.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BUD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A 2243 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOR HAVE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE
LACK OF CHANGE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT.

IT REMAINS A BIT PUZZLING AS TO WHY BUD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE
CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER BUD THAN WHAT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS
AND ENCOUNTERING EVEN LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL
TIMES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. BUD SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
24-48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND
TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG
107W AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS BUD
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 72-120 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD COME TO A HALT AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
PRESUMABLY WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS WEST.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOW ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

The cruise ship (Millenium) that has been tracking torwards Puerto Vallarta is staying on course and it looks like it will be on the other side of Bud before the storm gets closer to the coast.But for sure they will get some increase in waves.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9

Very good news to hear.

[Kingarabian]

That's awesome! Maybe we can finally find out how strong this thing really is.

[Cyclenall]

Funny how inactive this thread is now when the most dramatic part of Bud's life is occurring. I was just waiting until that nonsense with the LLC to the east of the deep convection stopped after a Kelvin wave moved through and now it might be fully under that dense CDO and if it is, this Bud is ready to burst (aka, explode). Over the last 8 hours, Bud has looked better than it ever has and the CDO is displaying behavior that suggests something dramatic is about to unfold or is. Its size looked much larger but the main part is fairly condensed and tight. Unless you look at the new RBTOP, it doesn't appear as if anything crazy is happening but with this particular imagery, you can see the sign that RI or EI is imminent:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Time sensitive, but look at the rapid swirling going on with the coldest cloud tops, whenever a TC shows that its bombing. The other clue is that the CDO is becoming more curved at the edges and expanding slightly to the east which wasn't happening during the last 30 hours.

Not forecast to be a hurricane anymore.Wow,what a change from first forecast.

I wouldn't have done that at all, I liked the first forecast better. My chances for Bud becoming a hurricane are the same.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

[Kingarabian]

Funny how inactive this thread is now when the most dramatic part of Bud's life is occurring. I was just waiting until that nonsense with the LLC to the east of the deep convection stopped after a Kelvin wave moved through and now it might be fully under that dense CDO and if it is, this Bud is ready to burst (aka, explode). Over the last 8 hours, Bud has looked better than it ever has and the CDO is displaying behavior that suggests something dramatic is about to unfold or is. Its size looked much larger but the main part is fairly condensed and tight. Unless you look at the new RBTOP, it doesn't appear as if anything crazy is happening but with this particular imagery, you can see the sign that RI or EI is imminent:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Time sensitive, but look at the rapid swirling going on with the coldest cloud tops, whenever a TC shows that its bombing. The other clue is that the CDO is becoming more curved at the edges and expanding slightly to the east which wasn't happening during the last 30 hours.

Not forecast to be a hurricane anymore.Wow,what a change from first forecast.

I wouldn't have done that at all, I liked the first forecast better. My chances for Bud becoming a hurricane are the same.

Yep.

[brunota2003]

I don't see any signs of RI happening, and convection tops are warming this morning. I'll keep watching though.

[Kingarabian]

Man when you look at Bud... and you don't have access to the NHC website... you would think it's a Cat. 1 Hurricane:

[ronjon]

00z HWRF spins up 94L but not until off the SE coast. Seems a little too fast on the movement too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012052300-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation