EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Down to Cat 2 at 95kts.


HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED
IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND
TRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

EMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND
A FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Cyclenall]

EWRC going on.

[img][/img]

Interested to see how she will look after completion.

She may not finish.

I was going to say "like garbage."

EDIT: Interesting how on the latest NHC discussion they don't mention an ERC once. So who is in the wrong here?

[Kingarabian]

Eye has cleared out I think she completed her EWRC. Wondering why the NHC didn't mention it.

I would put her @ 100Kts.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  11 JUL 2012    Time :   073000 UTC
      Lat :   14:24:02 N     Lon :  116:16:21 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.1 / 967.5mb/ 92.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.0     5.3     6.1

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 Center Temp :  -3.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   80km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.4 degrees

ADT T#'s skyrocketing.
_____________

Very very cold tops and the eye continues to get better. I would say cat 3.
Losing its banding and looking more and more annular.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110848
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY DANIEL THREE
DAYS AGO WHEN THAT CYCLONE WAS A 70-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DANIEL
LIKELY DID NOT CREATE ANY COLD UPWELLING BECAUSE EMILIA HAS
RECENTLY MADE A CONVECTIVE RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT
ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.1/92 KT...AND THE IMPROVED EYE
FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09 KT. EMILIA REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
MODEL AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.

ANY INTENSITY GAINS MADE BY EMILIA THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER 48 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE IN
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.6N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Remains a Cat. 2 Hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Any RBT data out?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks amazing.

[meteortheologist]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

[JGrin87]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

Not sure if serious?

[meteortheologist]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

Not sure if serious?

and why is that?

[JGrin87]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

Not sure if serious?

and why is that?

I think this should answer your question

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/story.asp?s=6921152

[meteortheologist]

I think this should answer your question

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/story.asp?s=6921152

ok 15 years, wouldnt you say just by general statistics that they're due for one? plus there isnt an absence of a pattern of destruction for such environments.

[euro6208]

THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL.

The NHC agrees that the Euro is King.

Watch Emilia come crashing down tonight.

Along with all the Epac enthusiasm on here.

Emilia managed to become the strongest hurricane of the Epac season and in the Western Hemisphere so far in 2012. This is about all it accomplished and I had high hopes for this one to finally undergo official explosive intensification. It failed and blew it. Instead it performed the run-of-the-mill RI that is typical and quick/very quick strengthening the rest of the time. Yesterday morning for a while I thought it would finally do it and bomb to insane heights like a 50 knot increase in 6 hours operationally. I don't know how long its been since official EI has occurred but this was a disappointing one. Maybe this will occur in the Caribbean later on.

if this was in the wpac it would likely explode to a category 5...i would agree though, emilia is very dissapointing and i see in the future that emilia will be the last major until around september...

current intensity is 95 knots...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mf_dolphin]

There's no such thing as being "due for one". Let's try and focus on the facts instead of idle speculation. Thanks.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

She is still well organized to look this good on microwave.

[Yellow Evan]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

It is pretty much impossible atm. Too much wind shear and cold water.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Code: Select all

     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  11 JUL 2012    Time :   163000 UTC
      Lat :   14:48:03 N     Lon :  117:26:46 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.2 / 944.8mb/119.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.2     6.4     6.4

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -11.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   80km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.7 degrees

****************************************************

[Yellow Evan]

Latest numbers:

ADT: 947 hPa 117 kt Scene: EYE
CIMSS AMSU: 953 hPa 103 kt Bias Corr: 0 (MW)
CIRA AMSU: 946 hPa 106 kt Tmax: 4.1

Link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 1205E.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SAB and TAFB at T5.5/105 knots.

11/1800 UTC 14.7N 117.7W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific