ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[timmeister]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc12/ATL/08L.EIGHT/

we seem to have Gordon

You are right.

[KWT]

Yep looks like we have Gordon, not too surprising given its presentation.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. GORDON SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALMOST ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM CLOSE TO OR BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN 72
HRS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM 48-72
HR...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

GORDON APPEARS TO HAVE RECURVED AND IS MOVING ABOUT 015/12 KT. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...GORDON SHOULD INTERACT MORE WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A TROUGH. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE HAS
BEEN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK IN THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
WHILE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT
TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 32.2N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 33.5N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 34.6N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 34.4N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 35.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 36.8N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 39.5N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[tolakram]

Saved visible loop

[KWT]

Looking a good bit stronger than 35kts at the moment, wouldn't be surprised if this is closer to 45-50kts judging by that loop.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 40kts.

AL, 08, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 329N, 544W, 40, 1008, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[SouthDadeFish]

Microwave imagery shows a partial eyewall has formed:







I am not a professional, but I am a meteorology undergrad, and this looks like it will be a hurricane soon. Microwave imagery is very insightful. (Just my opinion)

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of Gordon and it's history by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:10 AM AST on August 16, 2012

Tropical Storm Gordon is here, born out of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week. Gordon's formation puts the hurricane season of 2012 in fourth place for the earliest date of formation of the season's seventh storm, going back to 1851. Only 2005, 1936, and 1995 had earlier formation dates of the season's seventh storm. Satellite loops show Gordon has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO)--a large and expanding area of high cirrus clouds over the center, due to a build-up of heavy thunderstorms. This is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. Wind shear is light, but ocean temperatures are on the cool side, near 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops show that Gordon has moistened its environment considerably, but a large region of dry air lurks on three sides of the storm, ready to barge in and disrupt Gordon when wind shear rises on Saturday. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate through Friday, then rise steeply to 25 - 40 knots over the weekend. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 26°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical, but Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands.


Gordon's place in history

The 2012 version of Gordon is the fourth storm that has been given that name. Previous incarnations of Gordon appeared in 1994, 2000, and 2006. It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago. During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

At 11 45kts is my guess based on appearence and microwave.

[ROCK]

he is making a run at a strong TS with that eye wall on microwave....glad to get Gorden out of the way on the list. Never did like that name...

[CrazyC83]

Based on the microwave, I would guess 55 kt for the intensity.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Good point made by Dr. Masters re: Gordon and 1994. Really, this storm should not be named Gordon, except that Haiti was not on the committee and it was an afterthought by everyone else. Instead, we would be talking about Tropical Storm (pick random male G name).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE FORMED AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH INDICATES
THAT GORDON IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T3.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5 FROM SAB...AND T2.7 ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN
THE MID-LEVEL BANDED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN A 16/1143 UTC SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 45-KT TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

GORDON IS RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
045/14 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
EAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT
LEAST 27C LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. BY 48
HOURS...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
SHARPLY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PUT A BRAKE ON THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS. AS GORDON APPROACHES THE AZORES IN 4 DAYS...
THE SYSTEM COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRANSITION INTO A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL...IV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 33.3N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 34.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 34.9N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 34.9N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 34.8N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 35.6N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 40.4N 19.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Based on the microwave, I would guess 55 kt for the intensity.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They went with 45kts.

INIT 16/1500Z 33.3N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 34.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 34.9N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 34.9N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 34.8N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 35.6N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 40.4N 19.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[CrazyC83]

How well prepared is the Azores if this rapidly intensifies?

[littlevince]

How well prepared is the Azores if this rapidly intensifies?

Strong winds and waves from extra-tropical cyclones aren't unusual in Winter. Lots of rain in a short time can be more problematic.
Population is getting informed, the media is talking about Gordon today.

[KWT]

45kts looks very conservative in my eyes, I personaklly wouldn't be at all surprised to see it wind up faster than the NHC are thinking, you'd struggle to find a system with that well organised inner core that is only at 45kts, even this far north.

[tolakram]

Saved Loop

[Nimbus]

Gordon looks like he will make it to hurricane status but hopefully the shear will blow through this weekend. The Azores have been been effected by a few Hurricanes. In 1857 an August storm destroyed several thousand farms and caused a famine.

[Extratropical94]

18Z Best Track:

AL, 08, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 339N, 530W, 55, 999, TS