ATL: ISAAC - Models

[cycloneye]

18z Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 181839
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120818 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120818  1800   120819  0600   120819  1800   120820  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.3N  32.0W   13.9N  34.6W   14.6N  37.6W   15.2N  40.8W
BAMD    13.3N  32.0W   13.7N  34.7W   14.3N  37.2W   14.9N  39.7W
BAMM    13.3N  32.0W   13.9N  34.8W   14.5N  37.7W   14.9N  40.7W
LBAR    13.3N  32.0W   13.9N  35.8W   14.6N  39.6W   15.3N  43.4W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          55KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120820  1800   120821  1800   120822  1800   120823  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  44.8W   16.5N  53.7W   15.9N  62.3W   14.6N  68.8W
BAMD    15.5N  42.4W   16.6N  47.8W   17.0N  52.9W   17.8N  56.1W
BAMM    15.6N  44.1W   16.5N  51.5W   16.5N  59.2W   16.2N  65.8W
LBAR    16.0N  47.2W   17.1N  54.1W   14.9N  58.8W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        64KTS          84KTS          96KTS         100KTS
DSHP        64KTS          84KTS          96KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.3N LONCUR =  32.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  23KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  26.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  11.7N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[gatorcane]

12Z CMC 144 hour position:

[Aric Dunn]

12 euro kills it over Hispaniola. this run is a outlier compared to the last couple. have to wait till 00z now.

[cycloneye]

I wonder why GFDL/HWRF have not been runned yet for 94L?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Gator, which one of those lows is I?

[Shuriken]

Given that the center appears likely to initiate around 14N while still two-thirds of the way to Africa, the odds this actually makes it into the Caribbean are rather small -- that'd take a LOT of arrow-straight due-west movement.

[Dean4Storms]

The ECMWF although it did well on Ernesto's track if memory served it didn't do so well on intensity.

I'm not buying 94L as organized as it already has become is not a TC by the time it reaches 50W. Don't see it.

[gatorcane]

Gator, which one of those lows is I?

In the CMC image above, it's the bigger one NE of the Leewards.

Here is the entire loop of the 12Z CMC:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

[ROCK]

I wonder why GFDL/HWRF have not been runned yet for 94L?

I don't know but you can see Isacc on the Helene runs...the fork in the road is right after the islands right now...

[jinftl]

Much more westerly tracks with this latest model run - we haven't seen any tracks staying south of hispanola from this group of models until now...let's watch the trend of future runs

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS has been showing this solution for many runs....IMO its on drugs... . Developes it and sends it SW then NW and N right away......recurve for the last 8 runs now...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[CourierPR]

12Z NOGAPS has been showing this solution for many runs....IMO its on drugs... . Developes it and sends it SW then NW and N right away......recurve for the last 8 runs now...

Rock, that NOGAPS solution seems to me to be in fantasy land.

[Kingarabian]

12Z NOGAPS has been showing this solution for many runs....IMO its on drugs... . Developes it and sends it SW then NW and N right away......recurve for the last 8 runs now...

Rock, that NOGAPS solution seems to me to be in fantasy land.

As always with the NOGAPS...

[floridasun78]

i want see what gfs show on wed

[ConvergenceZone]

Someone mentioned earlier about this potentially going into Mexico, but I think the ONLY way that can happen is if this stays extreme weak, and while the potential strength is still up in the air, I don't see this staying extremely weak. Perhaps a split between the GFS and EURO strength wise....

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF ensembles at 192 hours. Looks like some kind of trough swinging through Great Lakes now....will need to watch this trend as it could influence 94L's track down the road:

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles are quite a bit more north of the 12Z operational. That may mean the 18Z GFS may shift north as well.

This *could* mean the westward trend in the models we have seen the last 24 hours could be over,

13 GFS ensemble members take this north of the Antilles with only a couple through the Antilles our south of. Most recuve east of the US on this particular run.

[Stormlover2012]

still a long way to go, i rem ikd and rita were supposed to be east coast storms, models mean nothing untill something develops

[jinftl]

Agree, this far out, without an organized center to even run model data from (and one that could easily shift north or south a degree or 2 in the formative stages having big model run impacts down the road for track), it's a game of pick the model run that excites you the most and defend it to the death. At this point, it is more consistency between model runs and between models that will begin to give some idea. The NHC will only go as far as a probability of storm formation in the next 48 hours with systems in the formative stages like this. To get more specific makes great dialogue on this board, but the models we see now will flip north, south, and back again 5 more times in the next 3 days alone! Residents in the Islands are going to obviously need to be more attention because they are the first area of potential impact.

still a long way to go, i rem ikd and rita were supposed to be east coast storms, models mean nothing untill something develops

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS running, keeping the system weak so far through 54 hours, beelininig it west..it's just a 1009MB low...

A far cry from yesterday's 18Z run so far to this point.