ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

for craps and giggles could you larry run for enso neutral conditions

i value your opinion and your posts pretty highly on here and where ever you post, i was just wanting to see if the numbers changed dramatically for enso neutral conditions, and it that it is worth looking at since we are barely into the weak nino territory and the CPC noted that enso conditions are currently not nino like, if you don't mind i would just like to see if there is a sign change in percentages, thank you

Thanks. I don't have any stats at the moment for neutral ENSO. I'm quite confident they aren't as discouraging from an excitement perspective as those for Nino's. I do have stats for weak Nino's, alone, however:

There have been 11 August CV formations during 15 Aug.'s. Out of these 11, 2 later hit the U.S. (18%). Since 1960, the respective stats are 1.2 formations/August (7 in 6 Aug.'s) and a U.S. hit rate of 14% (1 in 7). So, they are slightly more encouraging vs. all Nino's if you want more action nearby, but nothing about which to get too excited.

[Jevo]

Went to a TD with it... Well at least we'll start to get model initialization on some of the other dynamic models

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic
Tropical Depression #Twelve advisory 1 issued. Yet another depression forms in the tropical atlantic ocean.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess we need to remember that MOST of the storms that come off Africa recurve, so it's not a suprise....I think we should all be happy it's going to recurve...Watching some of the footage from Isaac was heartbreaking, especially with many of the lost pets....I'd say if it's going to be a fish storm and miss bermuda, then it better be a cat 5!!! ....

[Aric Dunn]

appears to be plenty of uncontaminated winds of TS force.

[Ntxw]

Current look at basin shear

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 43.4W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Jevo]

[Aric Dunn]

from the discussion

"THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES. "

[cycloneye]

From discussion.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[cpdaman]

somewhat interesting that they have it at 14.3

seems more like 13.9 or so?

[TheEuropean]

It appears that a trof deepening along 65W in the next day or two should allow this storm to turn northeast of the Caribbean and pass near or east of Bermuda. There just won't be much of any high pressure area to its north by Sunday. Similar track to Kirk but a little west. Slight chance of a few squalls reaching the NE Caribbean. Conditions in its immediate path appear to be only semi-favorable for development. Likely another struggling TS south of 20 deg.

NHC makes this one a hurricane with 80 kt wind. And I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a cat 2 or more.

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[Aric Dunn]

somewhat interesting that they have it at 14.3

seems more like 13.9 or so?

yeah that is strange the latest scat images show it 13.7 to 13.9 hmm ..

[Ptarmigan]

Hello Leslie. I think Leslie will be our first major hurricane of the season. The season is really picking up as we head into the peak season.

[otowntiger]

While I don't question your high level of expertise as you are perhaps one of the most knowledgeable and level headed professional posters on this board, I seem to remember a very similar remark about what was to become Isaac. Just sayin'.

Your memory fails you. I was consistently left of guidance and weaker when 94L was east of the Caribbean. Models developed it to a hurricane and I pointed out the unfavorable conditions in its path. While some were hyping a hurricane path up the east U.S. Coast I was saying farther west - to the western Florida Panhandle from 8 days before landfall. I'd say that's pretty close from that far out.

From when Isaac was well east of the Caribbean as 94L on Sunday August 19:
"94L continues to struggle in the hostile conditions that prevail east of the Caribbean this season. It's clear that some of the models (GFS in particular) were incorrect in their assessments of development potential east of the Caribbean. Ernesto and Seven/Helene had a hard time consolidating east of the Caribbean, and 94L will probably also struggle. It appears unlikely that it will be a hurricane when it reaches the eastern Caribbean. Possibly a TS."

And on Monday the 20th:
"I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday."

And on Tuesday, the 21st:
"My gut is saying Florida Panhandle."

We've already issued track forecasts for our clients, and they keep it north of the Caribbean. I'll bet you a nickle that the NHC's first track keeps it well north of the Caribbean, too.

This is the post by you that I remember, maybe it wasn't in reference to what was to become Isaac. Was pouch 15L future Isaac or another system? In which case I apologize. Also I realize that the circumstances with this storm (Leslie) are very different. I was certainly not trying to be critical in either case. BTW, thanks for great contributions to this board!

Post subject: Re: Big wave emerging West Africa (Pouch 15L)
New postPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:42 pm
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Weakening ridge to its north after 120hrs and deepening trof along east U.S. coast should mean recurvature east of the Caribbean and well east of the U.S. Of course, it has to develop first...


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[KWT]

Yep 100% obvious that its below 14.1N, ah well they may just hold it at 14.1N next time and let it 'catch' it up like they did with Issac.

That image above pretty much confirms the center below 14N given there are westerly winds below 14N...

[HurricaneWarning92]

From discussion.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

Well thats interesting... They are not even sure this one is a definite recurve.

[Portastorm]

While I don't question your high level of expertise as you are perhaps one of the most knowledgeable and level headed professional posters on this board, I seem to remember a very similar remark about what was to become Isaac. Just sayin'.

Your memory fails you. I was consistently left of guidance and weaker when 94L was east of the Caribbean. Models developed it to a hurricane and I pointed out the unfavorable conditions in its path. While some were hyping a hurricane path up the east U.S. Coast I was saying farther west - to the western Florida Panhandle from 8 days before landfall. I'd say that's pretty close from that far out.

From when Isaac was well east of the Caribbean as 94L on Sunday August 19:
"94L continues to struggle in the hostile conditions that prevail east of the Caribbean this season. It's clear that some of the models (GFS in particular) were incorrect in their assessments of development potential east of the Caribbean. Ernesto and Seven/Helene had a hard time consolidating east of the Caribbean, and 94L will probably also struggle. It appears unlikely that it will be a hurricane when it reaches the eastern Caribbean. Possibly a TS."

And on Monday the 20th:
"I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday."

And on Tuesday, the 21st:
"My gut is saying Florida Panhandle."

We've already issued track forecasts for our clients, and they keep it north of the Caribbean. I'll bet you a nickle that the NHC's first track keeps it well north of the Caribbean, too.

This is the post by you that I remember, maybe it wasn't in reference to what was to become Isaac. Was pouch 15L future Isaac or another system? In which case I apologize. I was certainly not trying to be critical in either case. BTW, thanks for great contributions to this board!

Post subject: Re: Big wave emerging West Africa (Pouch 15L)
New postPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:42 pm
Offline
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 9:06 pm
Posts: 12011
Location: Houston, TX
Weakening ridge to its north after 120hrs and deepening trof along east U.S. coast should mean recurvature east of the Caribbean and well east of the U.S. Of course, it has to develop first...


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The point has been made. Any further dialogue on the subject should occur via PM.

[drezee]

The test will be if this buoy has a east wind in about 10 hours...per the NHC forecast

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[KWT]

Hello Leslie. I think Leslie will be our first major hurricane of the season. The season is really picking up as we head into the peak season.

I think thats the case, though I think given the way Kirk has blown up in the last few hours, it may have to settle for No.2...

[x-y-no]

The test will be if this buoy has a east wind in about 10 hours...per the NHC forecast

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

You mean west winds, I presume.