ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Cyclenall
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Re:

#2001 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:34 am

RL3AO wrote:Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

The Latest Euro initialized too far north as well, that means this run may not reflect the true outcome but the general path adjusted a bit south could be something to look at. The ridge as well. I'm not sure why the latest NHC advisory said that thing about bouncing back wnw or nw...what is that about? A center relocation doesn't do that (i.e fix the difference).

meriland23, you missed the 96 hour image which is very important.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2002 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:35 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Looks a Tad east....thank you for posting EURO!


welcome :P
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Re: Re:

#2003 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:36 am

Cyclenall wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

The Latest Euro initialized too far north as well, that means this run may not reflect the true outcome but the general path adjusted a bit south could be something to look at. The ridge as well. I'm not sure why the latest NHC advisory said that thing about bouncing back wnw or nw...what is that about? A center relocation doesn't do that (i.e fix the difference).

meriland23, you missed the 96 hour image which is very important.




actually 72 miles south....
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Re: Re:

#2004 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:37 am

Cyclenall wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

The Latest Euro initialized too far north as well, that means this run may not reflect the true outcome but the general path adjusted a bit south could be something to look at. The ridge as well. I'm not sure why the latest NHC advisory said that thing about bouncing back wnw or nw...what is that about? A center relocation doesn't do that (i.e fix the difference).

meriland23, you missed the 96 hour image which is very important.


Apollogies.. thought it posted, my comp went a little weird for a min there.. here is the 96hr euro

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#2005 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:38 am

EURO 168

Image

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2006 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:39 am

All I needed to see. Thanks for posting!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2007 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:40 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:All I needed to see. Thanks for posting!


Bama it looks like....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2008 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:40 am

0z Euro 168Hrs Landfall Pensacola.. further east this run

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012082300&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=168
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#2009 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:41 am

about 10 mb weaker than last run, and bit east
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#2010 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:41 am

Thanks so much for posting Meriland...not what I wanted to see, but appreciate your time and effort in posting the run for all of us to see.
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#2011 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:42 am

Models don't cave. They take data and apply physics equations and output a forecast. This thread is for model data not immature model war posts.
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Re:

#2012 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:42 am

meriland23 wrote:about 10 mb weaker than last run, and bit east


Its a good 150 miles east
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Re: Re:

#2013 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:46 am

meriland23 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).

The Latest Euro initialized too far north as well, that means this run may not reflect the true outcome but the general path adjusted a bit south could be something to look at. The ridge as well. I'm not sure why the latest NHC advisory said that thing about bouncing back wnw or nw...what is that about? A center relocation doesn't do that (i.e fix the difference).

meriland23, you missed the 96 hour image which is very important.


Apollogies.. thought it posted, my comp went a little weird for a min there.. here is the 96hr euro

*Image Removed*

Thank you. Shows a landfall on west-central Cuba but quickly crosses over it. Assuming that is too far north, I would guess it doesn't even hit Cuba until its close to the western tip which is quite something. That is a total guess.

meriland23 wrote:EURO 168

*Image Removed*

Pensacola hit. If that was shifted to the west, the landfall would look similar to a certain K storm in the 2005 season (look at the date).
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Re: Re:

#2014 Postby Texashawk » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:47 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:about 10 mb weaker than last run, and bit east


Its a good 150 miles east


?? The last EURO was predicting landfall near New Orleans? I missed that run...
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Re: Re:

#2015 Postby fci » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:48 am

ROCK wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).



The center should move back to the northwest though so the models should not end up being to far off. Here is a excerpt from the 2am advisory

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.[b][/b]



still moving to the west at 20!!! ding ding....that should sound some alarms...


But, read the highlighted, larger fonted (is that a word?) section.
This is not heading due west anymore, at least not for long.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2016 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:51 am

What that "K" storm shows us more than anything is given the right conditions, a storm can go from Cat 1 in South Florida over the Everglades to Cat 5 165+mph in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in just a day or two.
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Re: Re:

#2017 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:56 am

The center should move back to the northwest though so the models should not end up being to far off. Here is a excerpt from the 2am advisory

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.[b][/b]




But, read the highlighted, larger fonted (is that a word?) section.
This is not heading due west anymore, at least not for long.



Iono yo, sounds like a fantasy outcome for some hell bent person on a specific track.. 50 mile shift south is substantial. If it shifts NW or WNW still, it will not be in the same coordinates as once expected before it shifted south unexpectedly.. it is not like it would make up for lost miles like that (snaps fingers)
Last edited by meriland23 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#2018 Postby Shuriken » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:56 am

RL3AO wrote:Guys the center has reformed a good 50+ miles south. The 0z runs are probably not worth the bandwidth they take up (the paper they're written on didn't make sense).
On a 260 degree heading (2am adv), it's not finished either. The mid-level circ from the 21-22 overnight blow up is at 15N, and the surface low has been heading toward it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2019 Postby PerdidoGirl » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:59 am

So I take it that maybe it's time to stock up on supplies here in Pensacola/Perdido Key?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2020 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:01 am

PerdidoGirl wrote:So I take it that maybe it's time to stock up on supplies here in Pensacola/Perdido Key?



Yeah I'm gonna do that tomorrow and Friday...may not need them in the end. But I'm not waiting for the rush to start if it does indeed head this way.
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