ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Terry]

Best of the funny #Sandy tweets tonight. (There are plenty of serious ones, urging people to prepare, etc.)

I hope my neighbors take their Halloween decorations down. Don't want a witches broom to go airborne and knock me out! #Sandy

The over/under has been set at 10,000. The number of ominous sky pics from NY City tweeters tomorrow. #sandy

Dear #Sandy: We'll give you $5 million AND Donald Trump if you head back out to sea!

[CrazyC83]

If it ends up being a disaster in NYC, I really hope they don't blame the NHC or any weathering service for not warning them.

How many actually evacuated in Irene though? I heard it was like 30% or less in some spots. We can assume about 10% are being proactive and will evacuate without an order.

[stewart715]

The mayor is holding back because of how lower zone residents were evacuated for Irene for 'no reason' (even though it was pretty close to being a disaster down there).

Irene was the worst thing that could have happened to that city because now this storm is being downplayed in every way, expecting it to turn out like Irene.

[ObsessedMiami]

The best part of Bloomberg's press conference was his brushing off the president's offer of assistance and stating that "I assured him that we had, we think, everything under control but we appreciate the effort. What FEMA really can do is to help those parts of the country that don’t have all of the extensive facilities and agencies and practice that New York City does. But I did want to thank them for their offer. "

sorry if it seems like pure politics the way i quoted it: was more focusing on prep attitudes in NYC. Hope they all are ok.

[angelwing]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my impact estimate for the region:



Red - Highest impact. Widespread to extensive loss of power expected along with major coastal flooding, and many trees and power lines down possibly blocking areas. Structural damage is also possible in some cases, especially in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 80 mph, except sustained over 60 mph with gusts up to 100 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Orange - Significant impact. Scattered to widespread loss of power, with numerous to many trees and power lines down. Slight structural damage possible in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph, except up to 80 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Yellow - Modest impact. Isolated to scattered loss of power. A few trees and power lines possibly down. Possible sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph, except up to 60 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Blue - High impact due to heavy snow. This area overlaps with other colored zones, and indicates where heavy, wet snow could take down many trees and power lines and caused major problems in themselves.

Been prepping all day and just got on...I am in the red:(

[ozonepete]

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Because of the hazards posed by high winds, all City parks will be closed after 5 PM tomorrow.

Wow...just unbelievable! Not evacuating, and commenting it is a "slow pile up" and not a tsunami type surge? 10 feet, is 10 feet...regardless of how fast it comes in!
I'm absolutely floored by these comments by him. Isn't there some 345,000 living in these evacuation zones or something like that? What a stupid and boneheaded comments by the mayor.

Sorry to anyone else, but I agree with your comments. I go by the science. He doesn't seem to understand that what he's saying is that all of the stores and amusements along the boardwalk at Coney Island will get demolished slowly over 10 hours rather than blown over in 2 minutes. I guess that's ok?
That's all I'm going to say. Don't want to get in trouble, lol.

[cycloneye]

Note=Let's not cross the line into pure politics.Thanks for your cooperation on that.

[Portastorm]

Ok, NHC punted, NYC is still planning on school Monday, no evacs... Maybe no ones here cuz Frank2 was right, and this isnt a big deal. High wind alert, and rainy / snowy isn't exactly the weather event of the decade.

They probably have the best advisors from all agencies, and no body really seems that worried, maybe this really was over hyped? Thoughts?

My thoughts? You're kidding here, right?!

I will write something similar to what I wrote yesterday in a response to our friend Frank2 -- every nationally recognized forecaster and every online respected forecaster and just about every computer model I know of all still strongly suggest this will be a historic weather event. NHC did not punt, they made a decision based on terminology and not on storm threat.

Seems like the mayor of NyC would have the best and most accurate advice avaiable? When a storm threatens La, the Emergency Operations Center and GOSHEP open and all the experts flood in. If it was really dire, wouldn't they know?

monicaei, you would think so. I work in emergency management myself and know that officials at the state level (and I bet at the level of a NYC) consult with the NHC and with the NWS before making their decisions. Actually they (NYC) should have plans in place in lieu of events like this which they can activate and carry out. I can't speak to what Mayor Bloomberg is thinking. But I find it alarming that when someone like even The Weather Channel openly derides his comments and when forecasters who are following this storm closely say the same, it makes you wonder what's going on there in the Big Apple. Keep in mind also that politics play a role in these situations. I'm not saying that is what the mayor is doing. But it is a real factor in the mix of issues at hand.

[ozonepete]

The mayor is holding back because of how lower zone residents were evacuated for Irene for 'no reason' (even though it was pretty close to being a disaster down there).

Irene was the worst thing that could have happened to that city because now this storm is being downplayed in every way, expecting it to turn out like Irene.

I couldn't agree more.

[KBBOCA]

Ok, I don't want to turn this thread into a bash Bloomberg thread. I actually normally think the mayor does a good job. But I think he's making a deadly mistake tonight.

Here's part of his press conference. Can any met or expert here tell me, does he have any factual ground for distinguishing between a normal "hurricane surge" and the type of surge expected on Monday?

“Lower Manhattan is the most vulnerable place to a storm surge, and Kevin Burke will talk about the elements of the Con Ed system down there that may be vulnerable to flooding, electricity and steam. Steam is used by a lot of big buildings to run their facilities, and if the steam pipes were to get inundated at the outside, the difference in the temperature makes them really dangerous to continue to keep going so they might have to shut down of them down.

“Let me tell you first we are not ordering any evacuations as of this time for any parts of the city. We’re making that decision based on the nature of the storm.

“Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge. With this storm, we’ll likely see a slow pileup of water rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect with a hurricane, and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago.

from here:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/node/133841

That statement worries me tremendously, and may be an example of the serious confusion that has been created by the fact that NHC is not issuing warnings north of the Carolinas!! I'm truly concerned.

[SunnyThoughts]

Eric Holthaus ‏@WSJweather A NOAA analysis ranks #Sandy's wave/surge destructiveness at 5.7 on a 6.0 scale. I have never seen a value that high.

Maybe this guy should give the mayor a ringy dingy on the telephone.

[MaryEllen71]

Ok, NHC punted, NYC is still planning on school Monday, no evacs... Maybe no ones here cuz Frank2 was right, and this isnt a big deal. High wind alert, and rainy / snowy isn't exactly the weather event of the decade.

They probably have the best advisors from all agencies, and no body really seems that worried, maybe this really was over hyped? Thoughts?

My thoughts? You're kidding here, right?!

I will write something similar to what I wrote yesterday in a response to our friend Frank2 -- every nationally recognized forecaster and every online respected forecaster and just about every computer model I know of all still strongly suggest this will be a historic weather event. NHC did not punt, they made a decision based on terminology and not on storm threat.

Seems like the mayor of NyC would have the best and most accurate advice avaiable? When a storm threatens La, the Emergency Operations Center and GOSHEP open and all the experts flood in. If it was really dire, wouldn't they know?

Bloomberg said it won't be that bad because it is not a TS or hurricane.

[KBBOCA]

Oh... and about the Jets and Eagles home games...

Doesn't having the games risk adding trouble when people are trying to evacuate?! It seems irresponsible that the NFL is holding games when both NJ and Philly are in State of Emergency mode?

The mind boggles!

[stewart715]

All I know is, I work in Zone B and I will not be there until Wednesday.

[Terry]

Number of people being ordered to evacuate in Delaware rises to 50,000

[tomboudreau]

I see evacuations have been ordered in Fairfield and Bridgeport CT - NORTH of NYC. And Long Island is there to block some of the water coming up to those cities - unless the fetch is straight down Long Island Sound.

[kat61]

The best part of Bloomberg's press conference was his brushing off the president's offer of assistance and stating that "I assured him that we had, we think, everything under control but we appreciate the effort. What FEMA really can do is to help those parts of the country that don’t have all of the extensive facilities and agencies and practice that New York City does. But I did want to thank them for their offer. "

sorry if it seems like pure politics the way i quoted it: was more focusing on prep attitudes in NYC. Hope they all are ok.

Truely pray that pretentious quote is not historical!

[cycloneye]

Sandy is packing a punch according to Air Force plane.

014800 3012N 07345W 6960 02824 9648 +116 +095 223070 071 048 002 00
014830 3010N 07344W 6962 02825 9651 +116 +090 224069 070 050 003 00
014900 3009N 07343W 6958 02832 9657 +112 +088 225071 071 050 003 00
014930 3008N 07341W 6963 02830 9660 +115 +087 227073 075 048 003 00
015000 3007N 07340W 6959 02839 9660 +119 +071 229076 077 046 004 00
015030 3005N 07339W 6963 02837 9661 +126 +053 227074 075 046 004 00

[AmeliaIslandr]

The residents of NYC are getting mixed/bad info from authorities. I'm on the phone right now with my fianace in Manhattan who has such a complacent attitude. All I'm hearing is "it's just going to be like Irene, just a bit of wind and rain".
Being a resident of Florida and having gone through several storms it's so frustrating.

[kat61]

The best part of Bloomberg's press conference was his brushing off the president's offer of assistance and stating that "I assured him that we had, we think, everything under control but we appreciate the effort. What FEMA really can do is to help those parts of the country that don’t have all of the extensive facilities and agencies and practice that New York City does. But I did want to thank them for their offer. "

sorry if it seems like pure politics the way i quoted it: was more focusing on prep attitudes in NYC. Hope they all are ok.

Truely pray that pretentious quote is not historical!

Not YOU Miami, but Bloom