ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

[/quote]
So, does the cnte of Debby stay with the LLCs?[/quote]


He's saying that the mid level center has moved well NE of the Low Level Center that you've seen as nothing but a naked swirl all day. The shear from the upper level low off the TX coast will have to skidattle if it is ever going to build convection and the mid level center back over the naked swirl!

[Ixolib]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 See Ship ZCDJ2... closet to Debby COC

Bet he's having fun in those 13 ft seas!!

[cycloneye]

Well it certainly isn't very organized nor do I see it doing anything much
in the short term.

But in terms of pressure is way down there,now below 1000 mbs.

[stormhunter7]

ship report at 00z has 4 meters every 5 seconds... rough ride

[Hurricane Andrew]

Go to Infared, 6 frame loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is a great link to see the low clouds even at night:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc

[tolakram]

Here is a great link to see the low clouds even at night:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc

Fantastic, thanks!

[caribepr]

Here in Pompano Beach, watchin' the flow.

[Dean4Storms]

00z Early Guidance not showing Debby going much of anywhere for 48 hrs.

The 11pm NHC Discussion should be an interesting one!

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al042012.png

[ronjon]

The majority of 18z GFS ensemble members swung back to central FL.

[thetruesms]

I am somewhat surprised that they went 100% with the Euro. I honestly thought there might have been a blend of all the models with maybe a Ms/La landfall. The pressure is definitley on the Euro now.. gonna be fun to watch.

That would have been an astoundingly bad idea. TVCN and other blends are essentially creating a multi-model ensemble mean. Using that mean is really only appropriate when all the members are operating under more or less the same overarching physical scenario, with differences in the details of how that scenario will play out. When you're blending models that have essentially diametrically opposed views of how reality will play out, the resulting average of them will result in output that isn't physically applicable at all

No VPN set up on my laptop . . . how tempted am I to run into work this weekend to save our experimental WRF build output before it gets obliterated each night?

[thundercam96]

Hey!! Where'd Florida go?

You Have A Bigger Screen shot? Like Maybe Showing The Whole East Coast?

[hurricanefloyd5]

when is this storm going to move to the westward

[caribepr]

Here is a great link to see the low clouds even at night:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc

What a great site, thanks so much!

[Dean4Storms]

Here is a great link to see the low clouds even at night:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc

I see the LLC still trucking north bound from that loop!

[SouthDadeFish]

No problem all. Here is a site I've designed which compiles a lot of the great links I've come across in my years of tracking the tropics:

http://www.canefever.com/#!links/c2414

Here is the latest image from the low-cloud product:

[cycloneye]

Yet another 00z Best Track update/Pressure drops to 998 mbs

In only one hour,ATCF updated a couple of times and it has dropped from 1000 mbs to 999 mbs and now 998 mbs.

AL, 04, 2012062400, , BEST, 0, 261N, 875W, 45, 998, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[scogor]

I cannot tell you how thankful I am that the leaky skylight in our kitchen was replaced yesterday! Wet, wet, wet in Sarasota!! Greetings to all of the other storm2k "oldtimers"--here we go again!

[thetruesms]

i grabbed those images for you will try sending via PM

Thanks! Yup, definitely appears to be "Big Drops". Even the HCA algorithm painted a few of them on the leading edge. Although its few pixels of hail were amusing - very much doubt that.

With all the talk about the GFS track (eastward) vs. NHC track (westward), I'm wondering if anyone recalls a time when the NHC flip-flopped it's forecast track by 180 degrees? Seems to me that in the last several years, the NHC track has generally always come to fruition within a few miles, but never have I seen a 180 degree shift. Well, maybe Betsy in '65 and Elena in '85, but those were both eons ago, technologically speaking.

This from the NHC:

...EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY...

Continuity is an extremely strong constraint on the NHC forecast, so they would be very loath to make dramatic changes. Although walking on a strong discontinuity between two strongly opposed scenarios like this would make a really fascinating exercise in that constraint if they felt the need to change.

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

And with it hang the hopes (or at least many of them) for GFS verification. Am watching with great interest.

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2012


.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
It appeared that the center of Debby was moving northeast in the
last couple of visible satellite pics of the day. However, we are
attributing that to a wobble and anticipate little movement with
this system during the overnight hours. However, if the trend does
not reverse itself, then we may need to finally consider the
possibility that the GFS solution (which we have been routinely
discounting for days) may have some merit. That said, both this
office and the national hurricane center continue to feel that an
eventual turn to the west is expected as the large upper level ridge
over the Southern Plains builds.