ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[jinftl]

Hmmm...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

So confused??? Can sOmebody explain why recon says winds are below 40mph.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041334
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120804
132530 1416N 06915W 8436 01563 0094 +177 +099 026013 014 005 001 00
132600 1415N 06915W 8425 01575 0096 +175 +099 026012 013 006 000 00
132630 1413N 06914W 8430 01568 0097 +173 +099 028010 011 007 002 00
132700 1411N 06914W 8425 01574 0098 +172 +098 024010 011 009 000 00
132730 1409N 06914W 8429 01568 0100 +169 +098 009007 009 007 000 00
132800 1408N 06914W 8433 01565 0098 +172 +097 357007 008 007 000 00
132830 1406N 06913W 8425 01575 0097 +175 +097 003009 009 007 000 00
132900 1404N 06913W 8430 01569 0097 +175 +097 360008 009 007 000 00
132930 1403N 06913W 8432 01567 0096 +174 +098 357008 008 009 000 00
133000 1401N 06913W 8429 01571 0098 +174 +098 339007 007 008 002 00
133030 1359N 06912W 8428 01570 0098 +175 +099 341007 008 006 000 00
133100 1358N 06912W 8433 01565 0098 +173 +099 358006 007 008 000 00
133130 1356N 06912W 8429 01570 0098 +173 +100 318004 005 013 002 00
133200 1354N 06912W 8429 01570 0099 +171 +099 292005 006 017 001 03
133230 1353N 06911W 8425 01573 0099 +172 +098 306007 007 020 001 00
133300 1351N 06911W 8427 01570 0106 +160 +096 304011 013 027 007 00
133330 1349N 06911W 8426 01574 0099 +172 +094 316008 013 024 005 00
133400 1347N 06911W 8430 01569 0099 +173 +093 314008 009 022 001 00
133430 1346N 06910W 8428 01573 0102 +168 +093 323008 008 022 002 00
133500 1344N 06910W 8426 01574 0102 +169 +092 314008 008 019 002 00
$$
;

[Thunder44]

Upper-level outlflow and low-level inflow looks also restricted on SW side of Ernesto. I don't think this intensifies too much until gets south of Jamaica.

[Nederlander]

Cycloneye, could you explain that chart? I feel like I either just failed a lie detector test or there was an earthquake...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Intensity is what?

[Sanibel]

While GFDL can be good at sniffing-out tracks early I don't trust it on systems that don't have an eye.


Nothing unusual. This is typical for the east Caribbean. My money is on a healthy storm further on.


Not a prediction, just an opinion.

[wxman57]

No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

So confused??? Can sOmebody explain why recon says winds are below 40mph.

looks can be deceiving.. Might see a pretty girl on the street, but she could be a mess on the inside..

So Ernesto is a TD, wow.. Did not see that coming.

[tolakram]

It's sucking dry air off of South America most likely. Showed up well in the mimic tpw loop I posted earlier.

[wxman57]

While GFDL can be good at sniffing-out tracks early I don't trust it on systems that don't have an eye.

Nothing unusual. This is typical for the east Caribbean. My money is on a healthy storm further on.
Not a prediction, just an opinion.

I don't trust it on systems with or without an eye. It hasn't proven to be the best-performing model, and the HWRF doesn't appear to be an improvement. The global models generally outperform both of them.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking.

Where did you find TS winds? Buoys?

[Blinhart]

No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking.

Where did you find TS winds? Buoys?

Recon found 37 Kt winds, which would be a minimum TS.

[floridasun78]

so their not finding ts wind?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What is the Nhc discussion going to say ?satellite appearance makes Ernesto look good, but recon finds winds of 35kts?

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041344
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 23 20120804
133530 1342N 06910W 8434 01566 0103 +169 +093 311007 008 024 002 00
133600 1341N 06910W 8426 01575 0105 +165 +093 279008 009 021 003 00
133630 1339N 06909W 8426 01574 0105 +165 +093 283008 009 020 001 00
133700 1337N 06909W 8435 01566 0103 +170 +092 275008 008 018 001 00
133730 1336N 06909W 8428 01575 0105 +170 +093 260009 010 016 000 00
133800 1334N 06908W 8422 01585 0109 +170 +094 242009 010 012 001 03
133830 1334N 06907W 8432 01572 0104 +171 +096 231010 011 021 000 00
133900 1336N 06905W 8430 01569 0101 +170 +098 236009 010 021 000 00
133930 1337N 06904W 8426 01575 0102 +170 +098 242010 011 021 001 00
134000 1338N 06903W 8429 01569 0102 +168 +098 246011 011 020 001 00
134030 1339N 06902W 8429 01569 0102 +169 +097 252010 011 021 001 00
134100 1341N 06901W 8429 01573 0102 +166 +097 263010 010 022 001 00
134130 1342N 06859W 8428 01573 0103 +165 +097 275009 010 023 001 00
134200 1343N 06858W 8429 01570 0105 +161 +097 281010 010 024 001 00
134230 1344N 06857W 8428 01569 0103 +160 +096 283011 011 024 001 00
134300 1345N 06856W 8429 01567 0101 +162 +095 280009 010 025 001 00
134330 1347N 06854W 8430 01565 0103 +164 +094 292008 009 024 002 00
134400 1348N 06853W 8429 01568 0103 +160 +095 295008 008 024 001 00
134430 1349N 06852W 8425 01570 0099 +166 +094 279008 008 024 004 00
134500 1350N 06851W 8430 01566 0095 +170 +094 273008 009 029 006 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

not ts?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking.

The global models have been absolutely wrong with this storm so far.

[tolakram]

It is barely a ts. See discussion thread.

[wxman57]

:double:

Cycloneye, could you explain that chart? I feel like I either just failed a lie detector test or there was an earthquake...

That chart is a plot of temperature (red line) and dew point (green line) with height. The closer together the red and green lines are, the more moisture is present. The farther they are apart, the drier the air. From the middle of the chart upward, the red and green lines grow far apart, indicating dry air aloft.