ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES21152012145TAAEyU.jpg

That is a huge, huge mass of clouds. Is all that precip?

Much of it.

[bamajammer4eva]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Joe Bastardi forecast from twitter feed

[/url]

cycloneye adds S2K disclaimer

[CronkPSU]

so when does my poor dried up pathetic looking lakes around my camp here in apopka finally get some rain out of this....pretty much missed everything last week

[Nimbus]

The local radar reflections are showing wrap around circulation rotating counter clockwise off Melbourne. Thats at the mid levels though might have been sheared NE a few miles. Doesn't look like much precipitation reaching the coast just the usual evening 20% POPs.

[JonathanBelles]

94L seems to have added energy to the afternoon sea breeze. Scattered reports of hail in the area and even a report of a tornado in Sarasota County.

[cycloneye]

Last visible image.

[AdamFirst]

94L seems to have added energy to the afternoon sea breeze. Scattered reports of hail in the area and even a report of a tornado in Sarasota County.

Dry as a bone by comparison on the east central Florida coast.

[jonj2040]

From what I can see on CIMSS, the Lower convergence and upper divergence appear to be centering more on where the vortices have been popping, and have also become less elongated or more defined, More apparent when looking at divergence.

also, Palm Bay got its first bit of rain from 94l or at least the moisture envelope about an hour ago

[lebron23]

Looking somewhat better but still has a long way to go, it will be a fun holiday weekend to watch this system unfold.

[cycloneye]

From 8:05 PM EDT discussion.

... SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N80W CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS TO 31N77W NE OF
THE LOW AND TO 20N84W SW OF THE LOW. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE AREA 540 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN TWO AREAS...ONE FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 76W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...
AND THE OTHER FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 71W-79W OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLOODING AND
POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA. WHILE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR...THE WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012052500, , BEST, 0, 265N, 786W, 35, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Code Red-60%



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well, that answers my question.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Beryl over Memorial Day Weekend...2 named storms before the start of Hurricane season...crazy

[jonj2040]

Shear looks like it is starting to drop off over the Bahamas, but still quite a ways to go for 94l.

[Dean4Storms]

The winds at this buoy quickly dropped........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[Hurricane Andrew]

I made a contest for 94L.
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=112804

[AJC3]

The winds at this buoy quickly dropped........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Settlement point is a C-MAN station, as opposed to a buoy. It sits over land (as the pic shows) at the west end of GBI.

[Dean4Storms]

The winds at this buoy quickly dropped........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Settlement point is a C-MAN station, as opposed to a buoy. It sits over land (as the pic shows) at the west end of GBI.

Haha, didn't even catch that. Thanks!

Looks like a closed circulation if you asked me. I don't understand why this isn't classified a TD, we seem to skip TD classifications anymore!

[AJC3]

The winds at this buoy quickly dropped........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Settlement point is a C-MAN station, as opposed to a buoy. It sits over land (as the pic shows) at the west end of GBI.

Haha, didn't even catch that. Thanks!

Looks like a closed circulation if you asked me. I don't understand why this isn't classified a TD, we seem to skip TD classifications anymore!

A couple things. 1) It's not a TD at this point (even if it's a closed low with 25-30kt winds) b/c it's not a tropical cyclone. All these vortices you've seen spin up along the trough axis have been more to do with surface pressure falls via jet forced ascent rather than latent heat release. 2) You'll see a system get initialized as a TS more often than not when you have BI/BE systems such as this. It's fairly easy to get gale (i.e TS) force winds when something is spinning up through a baroclinic (non-topical) intensification process.