CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Daniel's eye has almost vanished.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a strong TS to me. I'd go with 55 knts right now.

[Chickenzilla]

Daniel has had a quite strong convective burst.


Discussion
this morning...Daniel has shown an eye intermittently within a small
central dense overcast from the geostationary infrared imagery. A
0912z trmm microwave image from the nrl site suggests that the
hurricane may have developed a secondary eyewall at a radius of
about 30 nm with a remnant inner eyewall still apparent at a 10 nm
radius. Both SAB and TAFB provide Dvorak numbers unchanged at
4.0/5.0...yet the advanced Dvorak technique suggests that the
cyclone has weakened by about 10 kt since the last advisory. A
blend of these estimates provides our 75 kt intensity analysis.

Daniel is moving westward at 13 kt...primarily through the influence
of a deep-layered ridge to its north. This ridge should remain in
place throughout the forecast period and prevent significant
poleward motion of the cyclone. All of the global and regional
track models are in close agreement on the westward trek of Daniel
and little change is made to the forecast track from the previous
advisory.

Daniel should gradually weaken for about the next two days as it
progresses over cool 24-25c waters while the vertical shear remains
very low. Around 48 to 72 hours...the shear should increase
significantly out of the north as the cyclone approaches the
eastern periphery of an upper-level anticyclone. It is likely that
the combination of stable thermodynamics and more hostile vertical
shear should cause Daniel to lose its deep convection and become a
remnant low in about three days...if not sooner. The intensity
forecast is most similar to a blend of the SHIPS and lgem
statistical methods and quite similar to that from the previous
advisory.

The analysis of the initial size of Daniel was assisted by a 0530z
ascat pass and a 1029z AMSU CIRA wind radii estimate.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 09/1500z 15.3n 129.1w 75 kt 85 mph
12h 10/0000z 15.4n 131.3w 60 kt 70 mph
24h 10/1200z 15.5n 134.4w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 11/0000z 15.6n 137.3w 40 kt 45 mph
48h 11/1200z 15.7n 140.3w 30 kt 35 mph
72h 12/1200z 15.6n 146.2w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
96h 13/1200z 15.5n 151.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 14/1200z 15.0n 158.0w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

$$
forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak goe down.

09/1800 UTC 15.4N 129.8W T3.5/4.0 DANIEL

[cycloneye]

Still a hurricane per 18z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1299W, 70, 988, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

I'm thinking the real adv will give this system 65 knts.

[Kingarabian]

His appearance looks the same as it was 6 hours ago. To bad he lost his size... He could have moistened things up more for Emilia.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I doubt Daniel will be a hurricane at the next advisory. If it is, it will only be a 65 kt. one.

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt Daniel will be a hurricane at the next advisory. If it is, it will only be a 65 kt. one.

I think 65 knts is fair give the appearance atm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I doubt Daniel will be a hurricane at the next advisory. If it is, it will only be a 65 kt. one.

I think 65 knts is fair give the appearance atm.

Code: Select all

  UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  09 JUL 2012    Time :   190000 UTC
      Lat :   15:20:07 N     Lon :  130:03:31 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.7 / 993.0mb/ 59.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.1     3.0     2.7

 Center Temp : -44.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -42.4C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG 

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   75km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.8 degrees

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

DANIEL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND EXHIBITING WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE SAB AND TAFB DVORAK FIXES HAVE
DROPPED TO 3.5/4.0. LIKEWISE...THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 60 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY
IS SET TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL
AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
PROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
VERY LOW. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
LOSE THE VORTEX COMPLETELY BY DAY FIVE AND DISSIPATION IS INDICATED
AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL SCHEME AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

AN 1806Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ASSISTED WITH THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS
FOR DANIEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 15.5N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 154.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt Daniel will be a hurricane at the next advisory. If it is, it will only be a 65 kt. one.

I think 65 knts is fair give the appearance atm.

Code: Select all

  UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  09 JUL 2012    Time :   190000 UTC
      Lat :   15:20:07 N     Lon :  130:03:31 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.7 / 993.0mb/ 59.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.1     3.0     2.7

 Center Temp : -44.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -42.4C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG 

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   75km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.8 degrees

****************************************************

See, I was right. In other news, Daniel has passed 130.

[Cyclenall]

To S2K Supporter:

Understood. Thanks.

Why is your username normal black when it should be blue for a MET title?

Wow, they went higher than the BT here for a weakening system,

You don't see that often.

[cycloneye]

Clinging barely to Hurricane.

EP, 04, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1315W, 65, 992

[Yellow Evan]

Clinging barely to Hurricane.

EP, 04, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1315W, 65, 992

Wow, Daniel is not done yet.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE SMALL CDO REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0/65 KT
...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
AND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD...AND IS NOW A
LITTLE FASTER AT 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.4N 132.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.4N 134.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 137.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

hmm, looks like it will make it to the CPHC's AOR in 36 hours as a weak TS, which would be the second AOR crosser since 2009.

[brunota2003]

Hello TS Daniel

EP, 04, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1330W, 60, 994, TS

[Kingarabian]

It's amazing that it's still a strong T-Storm.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 55kts.

EP, 04, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1343W, 55, 996, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest