GFS keeps it weak 3 days from now, with that ridge to the north it will probably continue west through the eastern caribbean.
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ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
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floridasun78
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Aric Dunn
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remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
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Hurricane Alexis
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
What about the Euro?
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tolakram
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Re: Re:
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
What about the Euro?
No model is good at intensity.
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rainstorm
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AJC3
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Re: Re:
tolakram wrote:Hurricane Alexis wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
What about the Euro?
No model is good at intensity.
Just to clarify, they're talking about the model guidance with respect to the intensity of TC's.
Global model guidance is made (and quite useful) for diagnosing intensities of mid latitude features such as surface highs and XT lows,
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Re:
Off topic but Gordon is making a run at a Cat 3...he may be the 'one' because it's actually happening...not a future model run...sorry...back to 94L
rainstorm wrote:this might be the best chance of the season. hopefully it doesnt just poof out. models trends arent good.
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Riptide
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Re: Re:
rainstorm wrote:AJC3 wrote:rainstorm wrote:this might be the best chance of the season. hopefully it doesnt just poof out. models trends arent good.
Then again, it might just be one of several.
there are several nice waves following behind.
Indeed, it's always the "next" tropical wave. Still trust observational evidence over models, this one is clearly going to develop.
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Models going weird again
gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS 114 hours from now, 1006MB low:
That's quite a nice train starting there, under a ridge!
At this point I still waiting for the GFDL and HWRF models to run on this thing, they have been poor so far in terms of starting up on Invests this year. Other years those models would have started running on 94L days ago. The 12z Euro was another disappointment I see.
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Caribwxgirl
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I've found from my time on this site that I have kind of learnt not to make any assumptions until we have at least a defined TD/cyclone. Honestly if I hadn't learnt that my imaginings alone would give me heart failure from some model runs 
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Caribwxgirl
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Re: Models going weird again
Cyclenall wrote:gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS 114 hours from now, 1006MB low:
http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/4217 ... htpmsltrop.]
That's quite a nice train starting there, under a ridge!
At this point I still waiting for the GFDL and HWRF models to run on this thing, they have been poor so far in terms of starting up on Invests this year. Other years those models would have started running on 94L days ago. The 12z Euro was another disappointment I see.
Yep some train lol
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Weatherfreak000
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
It's too far North......looks like it's nearing 15N. I can truly see models perhaps lifting North now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Finally the HWRF is run at the 18z. Keeps it weak and has a few other vorts behind it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012081818-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012081818-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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hurricanetrack
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Speaking of models and how they don't do well with intensity (globals that is), just look at Gordon. Did any of the recent runs over the last few days suggest that Gordon would reach 110 mph? Yet, there it is and over almost no heat content too. Just goes to show what can happen when the atmosphere is conducive given just enough warm water. So who knows? Maybe the status quo of weak MDR systems will continue and the GFS/Euro solution in fact comes to pass. We'll know in a few days, that' the only certainty.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Weatherfreak000 wrote:It's too far North......looks like it's nearing 15N. I can truly see models perhaps lifting North now.
Even if this does consolidate at 15n this should move due west if not a little south of due west
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