ATL: SANDY - Models

[storm4u]

this would be the first storm that I didnt have to leave my house to see

[HurricaneBelle]

This would be horrible for New York if that happened. I can't see this happening too cold up there this time of year and water tempertures are too cold

It's not a matter of it being warm core at that point, it would be a subtropical/extratropical monster.

[tolakram]

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Water temps near New York are 60F so I think tropical is out of the question, but a really bad storm with a lot of wind and surge is not.

I'm not buying the GFS solution showing a strong storm coming off of Cuba, nor am I buying a perfect environment for intensification. I think what's more likely is a sheared system with most convection on the east side of the storm.

[GCANE]

This would be horrible for New York if that happened. I can't see this happening too cold up there this time of year and water tempertures are too cold

It's not a matter of it being warm core at that point, it would be a subtropical/extratropical monster.

Pretty much a "Perfect Storm" setup

[Blown Away]

72hours over top andros Island. thats pretty darn close to florida.

The center is still a bit east of Andros similar to 00z.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[GCANE]

Culprit for ECMWF landfall is a blocking ridge to its Northeast off Newfoundland & in Labrador Sea 500-mb height:

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2608 ... 08/photo/1

[ROCK]

ok where is my NYC surge map.... though this would not really apply so much with such a huge windfield in this storm

[StormingB81]

Does it ride the coast or now..I know earlier it was showing nc...what places will be impacted?

[CrazyC83]

Can areas use hurricane evacuation procedures for non-tropical storms as well? Since if that verified, NYC would have to evacuate at least Zone A...

[HurrMark]

There have been coastal evacuations during powerful noreasters, which is what this would essentially equate to.

[CrazyC83]

Does it ride the coast or now..I know earlier it was showing nc...what places will be impacted?

If the center turns towards the CONUS, most likely the center would come in somewhere between Cape Cod and the Delmarva. However, the size will be INCREDIBLY large, so practically the entire east coast - and as far west as 80-82W longitude (at least) - will be impacted.

[stephen23]

Seems to be looking pretty good for past hour or so.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z a mirror of 12z so far....Splitting the spine of the Bahama Chain and then NE thru 120hrs..

[Blown Away]

18z GFS very similar to 12z through 100 hours, maybe a smidge west before making sharp right near NW Bahamas.

[Ptarmigan]

ok where is my NYC surge map.... though this would not really apply so much with such a huge windfield in this storm

If New York City got such storm surge like that, they are in major trouble.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS gets much closer to 12z Euro. 240 hours.

[stephen23]

so is that pretty much all models in agreement now?

[weatherwindow]

18z a mirror of 12z so far....Splitting the spine of the Bahama Chain and then NE thru 120hrs..

Right thru the Abacos...Marsh Harbour...Hopetown..Green Turtle Cay...Coopertown...Walkers Cay

[sharoncapecod]

Been looking at alot of models and I'm concerned up here. I'm on Cape Cod and the Boston stations don't want to say too much. Should I be worried? Only one way off the island and it's only 2 lanes..

[CrazyC83]

Been looking at alot of models and I'm concerned up here. I'm on Cape Cod and the Boston stations don't want to say too much. Should I be worried? Only one way off the island and it's only 2 lanes..

There is almost no chance of a total evacuation of Cape Cod, since much of it is at higher elevation. But prepare for a long period of 50-65 mph winds (higher gusts), rain and waves.