ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Jevo]

0z HWRF +36


0z HWRF +48


0z HWRF +60

[lebron23]

HWRF sure looks like its still bending west

[jabman98]

Channel 2 in Houston (NBC affiliate) has hired Bill Reed, the former NHC director, to be their hurricane expert. On the 10 p.m. broadcast tonight he had an interesting map with a graphic of the high and why and how it's going to push Debby west and a bit south. It was easy to understand and I think will be helpful for those less immersed in following hurricanes.

Just thought it was interesting that they'd hired him. Houstonians might want to know about it, since Debby might pay us a visit.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Pretty much stationary or slight drifting around. Its the blowup of convection that we haven't seen until now that is is giving an illusion of moving north and east. Pretty much she is finally trying to expand out now since shear is decreasing and coming more from the south as well.

[lebron23]

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66 hours

[Hurricane Alexis]

Somebody at the NHC or whoever updated the GFS is going to get fired. I don't know who will turn out to be right (Iv'e learned in the past not to challenge the NHC), but heads will roll. "If" the GFS turns out to be wrong, how embarrassing! People will really question it's future runs.

Is this the first time the GFS ever did something like this?

[vaffie]

HWRF sure looks like its still bending west

Probably because it's representing it as a stacked, strengthening storm as opposed to a disorganized, sheared, weak storm like the GFS shows. 981 mb is a healthy storm--like 85-100 mph winds

[Ntxw]

Is this the first time the GFS ever did something like this?

No, it is a well documented fact that the GFS is a progressive biased model (hence trough connection). At the same time the Euro is a cut off-centric model. Often times somewhere in between is the safe bet.

[Jevo]

0z HWRF +72


0z HWRF +78

[NDG]

0z UKMET shifted north and slower.

[lebron23]

00Z HWRF should end up in the same spot as 18z or just a bit south

[Lane]

That is a huge blow up of convection now, looks like she is starting to wind up.

[Jevo]

00Z HWRF should end up in the same spot as 18z or just a bit south

Indeed

Edit: Looks to be within about 20 miles but 4mb lower in pressure

0z HWFR +84

[NDG]

Tonight's 0z UKMET shifted north and pretty much stalls her for the next 72 hrs. I wonder if the ECMWF will follow suit.

[Kingarabian]

30 mins until the Euro rolls!

CAN YOU DIGGGG ITTTTTTTTT?!!!

[lebron23]

Whats the website to watch the Euro roll out

[Evil Jeremy]

Whats the website to watch the Euro roll out

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html

[Kingarabian]

I use IWM^

[crimi481]

Pretty much stationary or slight drifting around. Its the blowup of convection that we haven't seen until now that is is giving an illusion of moving north and east. Pretty much she is finally trying to expand out now since shear is decreasing and coming more from the south as well.

When I click on NHC Forecast Points - no Illusion as to actual movement?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Disclaimer: No real clue -no facts to back up statements/ observations made here

[JonathanBelles]

It looks like both camps in the model departments will be at least partially correct. The GFS caught the MLC departure currently taking place and the rest of the models continue with the westward motion. So, in a sense, Debby is going both directions for now at least:

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... both-ways/