ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

From 11am NHC Disco:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.1N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.0N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.3N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

16.0/66.4 at 2pm, moving WNW and going to be north of their track already.

[KWT]

Hmmm recon finding some higher winds in the eastern quadrant this time, without any doubt at all its still a TS:

181200 1524N 06531W 8429 01547 0079 +160 +160 199046 047 034 001 01

Might even be close to 40kts again.

[ConvergenceZone]

Either this gets it's act going in the next 24 hours, or it's bust......
It's been given plenty of opportunities. IF it continues this rate of stregthening,
it won't even make it to hurricane strength before it hits the islands...
It would ge fantastic news for the islands though, but they would still
have to contend with the flooding

[KWT]

From 11am NHC Disco:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.1N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.0N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.3N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

16.0/66.4 at 2pm, moving WNW and going to be north of their track already.

Thats on the basis that there IS a center at 16N...I've got my doubts at the moment looking at the recon reports, seems to be further SOUTH for now...but the next hour will confirm that either way.

PS, to a large degree once again the NHC position is guesswork...educated guesswork, but guesswork all the same...hard to be sure when there is no one solid center.

[HurrMark]

From 11am NHC Disco:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.1N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.0N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.3N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

16.0/66.4 at 2pm, moving WNW and going to be north of their track already.

That's assuming the 16.0 vortex becomes the dominant one, which may not be the case.

[wxman57]

Looks like recon has found a decent vortex at 15.5/6N, winds shoot up in the eastern part to 41kts at flight level, a tight looking wind field and importantly pressure shoots up 2-3mbs in a short distance.

Whether or not this is just another strong eddy I don't know, but it matches the best rotation seen thus far.

Saw that. 15.6N/66.5W. However, it appears to be an anticyclonic rotation.

[HurrMark]

Either this gets it's act going in the next 24 hours, or it's bust......
It's been given plenty of opportunities. IF it continues this rate of stregthening,
it won't even make it to hurricane strength before it hits the islands...
It would ge fantastic news for the islands though, but they would still
have to contend with the flooding

Gordon in 94 was just a TS at landfall in Haiti. It doesn't matter if it's a TD or hurricane. The rain is the biggest issue in that country.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm recon finding some higher winds in the eastern quadrant this time, without any doubt at all its still a TS:

181200 1524N 06531W 8429 01547 0079 +160 +160 199046 047 034 001 01

Might even be close to 40kts again.

there wer some 40kt sfmr too.

[artist]

Hello all! I have been looming in the background for several days now just reading and watching... Im a fairly new resident to South Florida and live in southeastern Palm Beach County. Right near the beach

Given the current forcasted track and strength, what if any preperations should I think about making at this point? What type of conditions should I possibly expect?

Again given that the forcasted track doesnt change very much from today..

Thanks!!

Two things ... one, welcome to Storm2K! We are glad you're here.

Second, listen to your local authorities and National Weather Service for potential impacts from Isaac. What you'll see on this forum is a lot of amateurs speculating. We have some professional meteorologists who opine as well. We also have a lot of Florida members who perhaps can give you a few clues about "local" impacts in your area. But again, please don't use this forum to be making life and death or property decisions.

Thank you.. Any SoFl members that have any imput on what their preperations are would be great

welcome, know how you feel, been there done that. We put together this link with just what you will need,e tc. Hope it helps. -
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109232
Have any question, pm me.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like recon has found a decent vortex at 15.5/6N, winds shoot up in the eastern part to 41kts at flight level, a tight looking wind field and importantly pressure shoots up 2-3mbs in a short distance.

Whether or not this is just another strong eddy I don't know, but it matches the best rotation seen thus far.

Saw that. 15.6N/66.5W. However, it appears to be an anticyclonic rotation.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/center.gif

haha you noticed the veering winds too..

[otowntiger]

Hmmm recon finding some higher winds in the eastern quadrant this time, without any doubt at all its still a TS:

181200 1524N 06531W 8429 01547 0079 +160 +160 199046 047 034 001 01

Might even be close to 40kts again.

Who would have thought at this point all we can do is confirm that it's still hanging on to T.S. status? I've about decided this thing just ain't gonna do it. Which of course if true will be great news for the islands and portions of Cuba and FL down the line. If Isaac doesn't start strengthening soon, I say he's not going to because his time will have run out. He could do something in the Gulf but since he'll be so weak upon arrival that he'll have to undergo RI to amount to much of a significant storm.

disclaimer: don't listen to me, I'm not a pro met, and this is just my amateur opinion. Don't make any plans based on what I say instead check with local officials, pro mets and of course the NHC.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Glitch on the recon? a

[Shuriken]

The circulation is greatly elongated and egg-shaped on a north/south axis, with the mid-level circulation and all the convection in the bottom half of the egg, with outflow arcs on the east and northeast sides. The surface centers are approximately in the center of the egg near the strong northern band of convection north of the mid-level center. IMO these surface centers are gyres caused the lee-side eddy effect of being "around the corner" of South America as moist southeasterlies coming screaming up through the Lesser Antilles and shank past Puerto Rico. The main convective core of Isaac is currently NOT being fed not by those southeasterlies, but by somewhat higher elevation east-northeasterlies riding over the surface outflow boundaries.

Until Isaac acquires a little more distance westward, its surface presence will remain garbled.

[Clint_TX]

"Go to him now, he calls you, you can't refuse..."

Indeed it is Isaac's Storm

[drezee]

From 11am NHC Disco:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.1N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.0N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.3N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

16.0/66.4 at 2pm, moving WNW and going to be north of their track already.

Recon says 15.6N/66.5W...

[KWT]

Saw that. 15.6N/66.5W. However, it appears to be an anticyclonic rotation.

How odd eh! Good spot, I didn't orginally zoom in enough to actually see that!

Wonder what fin and games we'll find on the next pass through!

[hurricanes1234]

So did the recon find a stronger storm, or is it the same?

[Shuriken]

If Isaac doesn't start strengthening soon, I say he's not going to because his time will have run out.

Why? It's not even near Haiti yet.

Gustav went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane in an eighteen hour period after hitting Haiti.
Frederic went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane after exiting Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cat-5 Hurricane Gilbert was still a tropical storm while in Isaac's current location.

[lester]

So did the recon find a stronger storm, or is it the same?

perhaps a little stronger storm with a 47 kt flight level wind observed. Still horrible at the lower levels however.

[CrazyC83]

20120823 1745 15.9 66.3 T3.0/3.0 09L ISAAC