ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is the cam of one of the cruise ships (Norwegian Jewel) that is going to Port Canaveral.

http://www.ncl.com/shipcams/jewelcam/fullsize.jpg

[KBBOCA]

Dr. Masters has a new blog entry up and cites the latest HWind analysis for Sandy:

This afternoon's 3:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2279

Correct me, anyone, but are those numbers inching up both wind and storm surge compared to earlier ones?

Yes, the numbers are up.

Last night 9:30 p.m. was:
winds: 2.6 and surge 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Yesterday 9:30 a.m. was winds 2.3 and surge 5.2

I think I have Friday values saved somewhere too... I'll check.

Also scroll back a few pages, I did a compare / contrast of yesterday and today's CERA surge models for metro NY. Not good. [here's that link: viewtopic.php?p=2286273#p2286273]

[Terry]

TWC is getting ready to explain why these ships headed out to see today into 30-40 foot seas. I totally understand that it's safer to leave port for the ships. But is it safer for the passengers?

[ozonepete]

Still looks good. Still pretty much tropical. No interaction with the stationary front yet. Convection still over center.

[galaxy401]

^ Kinda looks like a mini hurricane inside a much larger cyclone. When will it start turning?

[chrisjslucia]

I am so often here checking on what the Caribbean has to face and to get advice and comment (and support) from other members - from elsewhere in the Caribbean but certainly the majority of whom are in the USA. I find it bizarre that now I'm looking to see what danger my aged aunt in North Haledon, NJ is facing from a still tropical hurricane!!

It's almost the second anniversary of Tomas (30 October 2010) which was one rough 24 hours for St Lucia. Good luck to all friends facing this storm and indeed to all Americans over the next few days. Believe me, we're all shouting for you. Be safe.

[KBBOCA]

You can see how the HWind analysis values have kept climbing for Sandy for both wind desructive potential and surge destructive potential here.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

Click on the links for 8 degree map, and look down below the graphic to where it talks about integrated Kinetic Energy.

Values on Fri Oct 26th at 07:30Z were
winds: 2.1 / surge 4.2

So wind has come up from 2.1 to 2.8, but surge destructiveness potential has risen from 4.2 to 5.8 in the same period.

[AmeliaIslandr]

My 22 year old son (just moved to Brooklyn 2 weeks ago) gave another check-in. He told me not to worry he knows the drill. They stocked up on water, batteries, candles and food. Cell phones and lap tops will stay plugged in to keep charged. Even though it passed by me with just minor winds it's still going to be a long few anxious days.
Hoping everyone's loved ones stay safe

[wxman57]

...
1) I have family up in Woodmere (Long Island), NY. I have been pouring over model info, slosh models, etc., as well as been on the phone trying to urge them to evacuate given that they are less than a mile from Motts Creek which connects to the North Bay in S. Long Island. I am really fearful of the possibility of standing water in their house for perhaps a 24 hr. (or longer) duration - dependent on timing with astronomical tide, direction of landfall/wind direction, etc. Despite their awareness of my tropical meteorological knowledge, they are reluctant to evacuate to be with other family not too far away and out of (storm surge) harms way...

Unfortunately, the graphic below doesn't cover inland water, just the cost of Long Island south of Woodmere. I believe they're on the western side of Woodmere, as I see Motts Basin on the map. I don't know anything of the elevation of that part of Long Island, but I would think that their location could well be flooded.

[jaxfladude]

Thanks for the info folks.....The trends are not good right now.

[Caribwxgirl]

Wishing all in Sandy's path the best. Just to think my family in the US were fretting about us here last week and now it's reversed. My grandfather several aunts, uncles and cousins live in New Jersey, I have another set in New York, Maryland and Connecticut! Mercy it's like this storm wants to visit my whole family. Thankfully my family in Florida are no longer in danger smh! This is a most horrid system.

[brunota2003]

National Data Buoy Center
Up to 40 ft waves recorded at NDBC Station 41048 -240 NM West of Bermuda and 126 NMR from Hurricane Sandy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048

[msbee]

I am so often here checking on what the Caribbean has to face and to get advice and comment (and support) from other members - from elsewhere in the Caribbean but certainly the majority of whom are in the USA. I find it bizarre that now I'm looking to see what danger my aged aunt in North Haledon, NJ is facing from a still tropical hurricane!!

It's almost the second anniversary of Tomas (30 October 2010) which was one rough 24 hours for St Lucia. Good luck to all friends facing this storm and indeed to all Americans over the next few days. Believe me, we're all shouting for you. Be safe.

I couldn't agree more. Now its our time here in the Caribbean to offer support and encouragement to our friends and family in the NE and I have plenty.
I am following this closely.
Be careful up there!

[jeff]

Sandy remains tropical in nature thus far.

[HurrMark]

Here is a question...I know in a hurricane the worst time for surge is when the cyclone hits at high tide. Is it different in this situation since the storm will be many miles south and the fetch would be going on for many miles towards the west...from what I can see, 'Sandy's landfall will be at roughly 2 AM Tuesday, which is getting close to low tide at the Battery. If it works the same in this case, that may be the saving grace for New York.

[KBBOCA]

Some more HWind analysis / IKE values for comparison.

Sandy on 24 Oct 19:30 UTC as she was near landfall on Jamaica:
wind: 2.0 / surge 3.6
link: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

25 Oct 07:30 UTC over Cuba
wind: 2.5 / surge 4.1
link: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

[jeff]

Here is a question...I know in a hurricane the worst time for surge is when the cyclone hits at high tide. Is it different in this situation since the storm will be many miles south and the fetch would be going on for many miles towards the west...from what I can see, 'Sandy's landfall will be at roughly 2 AM Tuesday, which is getting close to low tide at the Battery. If it works the same in this case, that may be the saving grace for New York.

Depending on exactly the center crosses the coast will be key to some degree...but all extra-tropical surge models show very severe water level rise at the Monday evening high tide...records in many areas. Add onto that 10-15 waves into the beach and the damage is going to be really really bad...I cannot stress enough the danger from the surge from southern NJ to RI including all of Long Island, Long Island Sound and New York City.

[ObsessedMiami]

Lived in Miami since 86 but my heart is with Delaware, where I grew up. Went through Gloria there. My sincere prayers and thoughts to all those in my beloved Delaware and all those in the path of Sandy!

[Time_Zone]

How bad could this thing possibly be?

I mean, it won't be as bad as say...Ike will it?

anyone?

[apocalypt-flyer]

Here is a question...I know in a hurricane the worst time for surge is when the cyclone hits at high tide. Is it different in this situation since the storm will be many miles south and the fetch would be going on for many miles towards the west...from what I can see, 'Sandy's landfall will be at roughly 2 AM Tuesday, which is getting close to low tide at the Battery. If it works the same in this case, that may be the saving grace for New York.

Depending on exactly the center crosses the coast will be key to some degree...but all extra-tropical surge models show very severe water level rise at the Monday evening high tide...records in many areas. Add onto that 10-15 waves into the beach and the damage is going to be really really bad...I cannot stress enough the danger from the surge from southern NJ to RI including all of Long Island, Long Island Sound and New York City.

Quite. If this was a small hurricane in terms of sheer SIZE, missing out on high tide might be a pivotal factor but that's not the case here. The opposite infact.