ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting feature about 100 miles west of the center. It's rotating southward. Find a visible loop of it and you'll see a rotation, too.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Ernesto1.gif

If what you're seeing here is true, this is nowhere near as organized as it looks

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HouTXmetro]

Wxman what could that be? very interesting!

[GCANE]

Looks like door is now opening up for intensification.

The 200mb PV anomaly ahead of Ernie appears to be dissipating.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Also Ernie will be tracking into an anti-cyclone and a pool of high OHC water.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 041200.GIF

Core still looks ragged, but could improve, IMHO, in the coming hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208040927

Solar heating of the CDO today most likely will help and could see a flare just before sunset.

[wkwally]

From what I am seeing I would not be surprised if this becomes a hurricane by tonight or tomorrow.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Clint_TX]

Wxman what could that be? very interesting!

It's his best friend!

[Fyzn94]

I've noticed this thing is trying to mock a monster's path.

[AJC3]

Wxman what could that be? very interesting!

First thing that comes to mind is a transient MCV (mesoscale convective vortex).

[cycloneye]

Looks like door is now opening up for intensification.

The 200mb PV anomaly ahead of Ernie appears to be dissipating.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Also Ernie will be tracking into an anti-cyclone and a pool of high OHC water.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 041200.GIF

Core still looks ragged, but could improve, IMHO, in the coming hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208040927

Solar heating of the CDO today most likely will help and could see a flare just before sunset.

You nailed that 200mb PV since yesterday morning.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Interesting feature about 100 miles west of the center. It's rotating southward. Find a visible loop of it and you'll see a rotation, too.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Ernesto1.gif

I ran the loop. Just looks like clouds.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My VERY amateur 48 hour insensitive forecast.
3 hours: 60mph
6hours: 65mph
12 hours 75mph
24 hours 85mph
36 hours 100mph
48hours 110mph
Don't question it, just looking at water temps and tchp, water vapor and satellite appearance

Check out the disclaimer quote for official forecast.

[wxman57]

Wxman what could that be? very interesting!

First thing that comes to mind is a transient MCV (mesoscale convective vortex).

Probably. Just remember Debby back in 2000 when the LLC was found to be about 150-200 miles west of the estimate using satellite at night.

[brunota2003]

Near 50kt winds...not sure if rain contaminated.
165330 1602N 06724W 8425 01601 0164 +121 +073 147046 046 050 021 00

The 046 (in blue) is at flight level. The first one is the 30 second average (the 147 beside it is the wind direction, or 147 degrees at 46 knots), the second one is a 10 second gust. Those two numbers are not representative of what is going on at the surface...usually surface winds are lower, so in order to figure that out, you have to use a conversion factor (this usually ranges anywhere from 60% up to 95%, all depends on the height of the aircraft, how well formed the storm is, where in the storm the reading is taken, and the particular storm itself).

The 050 (in red) is the surface estimated windspeed value from the SFMR. I don't remember what exactly it uses to determine the surface windspeed, but I know it does not use the flight level winds. The SFMR does have a few weaknesses, though. When over shallower waters (like a bay or harbor), it usually reports incorrect wind speeds. Another one is rain. If rain values (in orange) are high, and the SFMR speeds seem high (remember, 99% of the time, winds at the surface are LOWER than flight level winds), then chances are that the values are being inflated by the rain...and those values are not reliable. Generally you'll start having effects on the SFMR's values when rain rates exceed about 10 to 12. The rain rates earlier were up to 55 in some of the more convectively active spots.

The 00 following the rain rates is an error code. 00 means nothing in that particular data set is suspected as inaccurate (it does not show whether anything is wrong because of rain, shallow water, etc however). 03 means SFMR values are considered suspect. 05 is SFMR data and another set of data. There are other codes as well, but I don't remember them off of the top of my head.

EDIT: To change "how well formed the aircraft is" to "how well formed the storm is"...I have recon on the brain!

[Shuriken]

My analysis of the zoom I posted on p74; the painted curves are the outlines of the anvils of the highest tops. I suspect the 700mb circulation center to be at the notch (and this would be where the surface center is eventually sucked under). Given the continuous, powerful exhausting at 200mb, I do not expect any diurnal down-time today.

Note: Navy lat-lon lines on 1km grids are in increments of two; e.g., 14N, 16N, etc.

[pcolaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It's alway tough for weak systems to get going in the east and central Caribbean. I think the close proximity to South America restricts the inflow. But the system has maintained itself well and I would guess it could intensify quickly after it clears the SA continent
_______________

But then what do I know (-:

[brunota2003]

Near 50kt winds...not sure if rain contaminated.
165330 1602N 06724W 8425 01601 0164 +121 +073 147046 046 050 021 00

The 046 (in blue) is at flight level. The first one is the 30 second average (the 147 beside it is the wind direction, or 147 degrees at 46 knots), the second one is a 10 second gust. Those two numbers are not representative of what is going on at the surface...usually surface winds are lower, so in order to figure that out, you have to use a conversion factor (this usually ranges anywhere from 60% up to 95%, all depends on the height of the aircraft, how well formed the storm is, where in the storm the reading is taken, and the particular storm itself).

The 050 (in red) is the surface estimated windspeed value from the SFMR. I don't remember what exactly it uses to determine the surface windspeed, but I know it does not use the flight level winds. The SFMR does have a few weaknesses, though. When over shallower waters (like a bay or harbor), it usually reports incorrect wind speeds. Another one is rain. If rain values (in orange) are high, and the SFMR speeds seem high (remember, 99% of the time, winds at the surface are LOWER than flight level winds), then chances are that the values are being inflated by the rain...and those values are not reliable. Generally you'll start having effects on the SFMR's values when rain rates exceed about 10 to 12. The rain rates earlier were up to 55 in some of the more convectively active spots.

The 00 following the rain rates is an error code. 00 means nothing in that particular data set is suspected as inaccurate (it does not show whether anything is wrong because of rain, shallow water, etc however). 03 means SFMR values are considered suspect. 05 is SFMR data and another set of data. There are other codes as well, but I don't remember them off of the top of my head.

EDIT: To change "how well formed the aircraft is" to "how well formed the storm is"...I have recon on the brain!

I also posted this over here...for anyone wondering in the future. It is a good example.

[Stratosphere747]

12z GFDL is much further W in the mid range...

Still has a turn towards the N at the end of the run but a definite shift.

[Stormlover2012]

does that look like its wobbling to north little bit?

[mcheer23]

Last night almost all the GFS ensembles were in mexico...now there spread out

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Seems to be intensifying. But can't judge a book by its cover.