ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Weatherfreak000]

does that look like its wobbling to north little bit?

He does appear to be slightly north of the forecast point to my eyes. As he strengthens he will likely stairstep more North.

[pcolaman]

Seems to be intensifying. But can't judge a book by its cover.

Looks like it to me !

[Stormlover2012]

its always hard to tell but I do see wobble, so we shall see

[SouthDadeFish]

Does anyone have any idea why the dynamical models do not want to strengthen Ernesto? Even the GFDL is keeping it weaker now. I just don't get it. What are they seeing?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Up to 50kts.

AL, 05, 2012080418, , BEST, 0, 146N, 693W, 50, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Nederlander]

Edit: 12z GFDL making a run at SE LA with a strong Ernesto..

[Stormlover2012]

well lets say today is the day where the models start seeing it getting stronger, I mean the last couple days the storm hasn't been that strong, but today u can tell on on radar and floaters that this is the best it has looked by far

[SouthDadeFish]

And down to 1003mb. That seems reasonable from the dropsonde that had 40mph winds with 1005mb.

[Kingarabian]

I'll be here to help out with the next mission!

[Stormlover2012]

yeah I always felt that this is going to be a la, tx, or mexico storm.. the high pressure in the SE is just to strong for it to make a run at the panhandle or miss border.


This is just my opinion


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

And down to 1003mb. That seems reasonable from the dropsonde that had 40mph winds with 1005mb.

2mb=20mph?

[brunota2003]

For every 10 mph you are supposed to take off 1 mb (roughly). So if you have a 40 mph wind on the center splash (dropsonde dropped in the center), and the measured pressure is 1005...then the real surface pressure "should" be 1001 mb. I'm not sure why they reported it as 1005, but I'm not them and I'm not in their position to know what all went on behind the scenes.

EDIT: This is referring to how to get the center pressure from a dropsonde that measured winds at the surface. Not what pressure equals what wind. If recon drops a dropsonde in the center of a storm, and at the surface it measures 10 mph winds, along with a pressure of 1008 millibars, then you subtract 1 mb from the pressure to get 1007.

[Nederlander]

And down to 1003mb. That seems reasonable from the dropsonde that had 40mph winds with 1005mb.

2mb=20mph?

That's only a 10 mph difference

[HurricaneAndrew92]

:uarrow: For every 10 mph you are supposed to take off 1 mb (roughly). So if you have a 40 mph wind on the center splash (dropsonde dropped in the center), and the measured pressure is 1005...then the real surface pressure "should" be 1001 mb. I'm not sure why they reported it as 1005, but I'm not them and I'm not in their position to know what all went on behind the scenes.

So at least 50kts at 5?

[SouthDadeFish]

Yes that is usually the rule, but I am not so sure the pressure suddenly dropped from 1008 to 1001 in an hour or two.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

And down to 1003mb. That seems reasonable from the dropsonde that had 40mph winds with 1005mb.

2mb=20mph?

That's only a 10 mph difference

In case you didn't see it, it says 50kts or 60 mph.

[cycloneye]

18z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041822
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC SAT AUG 4 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO (AL052012) 20120804 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120804  1800   120805  0600   120805  1800   120806  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  69.3W   15.9N  72.8W   17.0N  76.5W   17.8N  79.6W
BAMD    14.6N  69.3W   15.6N  72.3W   16.6N  75.2W   17.5N  77.8W
BAMM    14.6N  69.3W   15.5N  72.4W   16.6N  75.7W   17.4N  78.5W
LBAR    14.6N  69.3W   15.1N  72.1W   16.0N  75.0W   16.9N  77.8W
SHIP        50KTS          56KTS          63KTS          70KTS
DSHP        50KTS          56KTS          63KTS          70KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120806  1800   120807  1800   120808  1800   120809  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  82.3W   18.5N  86.1W   18.6N  89.1W   18.9N  91.7W
BAMD    18.2N  80.0W   18.9N  83.4W   19.4N  86.4W   19.8N  89.7W
BAMM    17.9N  81.0W   18.3N  84.9W   18.6N  88.1W   18.9N  91.1W
LBAR    17.6N  80.3W   18.6N  84.2W   19.8N  87.1W   19.6N  90.0W
SHIP        76KTS          84KTS          90KTS          90KTS
DSHP        76KTS          84KTS          68KTS          53KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.6N LONCUR =  69.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  66.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  63.3W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM
 


[Shuriken]

Unofficial prediction: Ernesto will not markedly intensify until passing the Caribbean pinch-point at 72W; it will be consolidating during this time, however; and there will be a slight northward kink in the track as the LLC tucks under the convective core (which appears be heading toward the center of the pinch-point gap). RI will onset Sunday, and Ernesto will quickly become a large, major hurricane south of (and uncomfortably close to) Jamaica thereafter.

I change my mind; after analysis of 1km zooms, I no longer view the pinch-point (or diurnals) as a factor, and therefore now expect Ernesto to accelerate the power-up phase it has already entered in the last few hours.

A milky-white veil of 200mb exhaust now dominates the system (see my most recent posts with 1km zoom pictures).

Disclaimer in sig.

[pcolaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My thinking:



Models have trended quite a bit stronger with the trough lately.