ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[caneman]

Well as I said its hard to make a middle ground really and instead they chose a track that would keep it over the Gulf for as long as possible. Once they feel more confident in the models the track speed will increase and a landfall will be shown.

I would have to disagree. Initially they should have went with La. which was right down the middle and could have easily adjusted East or WEst. And instead of fully correcting they are now stair stepping.

[Dave]

[Janie2006]

KMOB (Mobile-Pensacola) Area Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC BRINGS
TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE CLOSER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST RESULTING IN
BETTER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY COASTAL SECTIONS OF
AL AND NWFL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE WILL
BEGIN TO EFFECT THE LOWER PART OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV OR MET GUIDANCE AND GO
A TAD LOWER THEN THE GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GO A TAD HIGHER THEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND WIND. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BASED ON THE NHC TRACK...TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY WILL TRACK INITIALLY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN TAKE A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK HAS REQUIRED
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES TO POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER INLAND...THEN WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
ALABAMA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH 7 PM ALONG WITH A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. THIS TRACK ADJUSTMENT TO DEBBY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS AND NOW EXPECT TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR THE
COAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS FROM A HALF
INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OVER MID SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAPERING
TO VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. /29

Soooo, could easily see TS conditions along the coasts of AL and NW Florida....no surprises there.

[KWT]

What a crazy morning to wake up to. She looks somewhat ragged on radar. I wonder how much more east they will shift the track. Her track will surely make a difference in Louisiana's wide range of potential conditions.

Yep quite a wide rage of options, you could have anything from nice dry conditions to a hurricane knocking on your door!!

Just a wait and see game. Won't be much movement at all though today...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241137
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 12 20120624
113000 2726N 08655W 8429 01469 //// +171 //// 310024 024 019 001 01
113030 2725N 08656W 8428 01473 //// +170 //// 312026 026 021 002 01
113100 2724N 08657W 8430 01472 //// +173 //// 314025 027 023 001 01
113130 2723N 08659W 8430 01478 //// +175 //// 318029 031 022 002 01
113200 2722N 08700W 8428 01484 //// +176 //// 316035 037 025 002 01
113230 2720N 08701W 8429 01484 //// +175 //// 316036 037 025 002 01
113300 2719N 08702W 8429 01488 //// +175 //// 319033 036 025 003 01
113330 2718N 08704W 8432 01489 //// +178 //// 320036 039 028 002 01
113400 2717N 08705W 8432 01489 //// +180 //// 316040 040 029 002 01
113430 2716N 08706W 8429 01490 //// +181 //// 317038 040 032 004 01
113500 2714N 08708W 8431 01490 //// +179 //// 318038 039 034 003 01
113530 2713N 08709W 8429 01491 //// +171 //// 319042 042 033 004 01
113600 2712N 08710W 8430 01492 //// +170 //// 320041 042 031 003 01
113630 2711N 08711W 8430 01497 //// +170 //// 320042 042 033 002 01
113700 2710N 08713W 8428 01501 //// +172 //// 322042 042 032 002 01
113730 2708N 08714W 8430 01502 //// +170 //// 322041 041 033 004 01
113800 2707N 08715W 8428 01506 //// +165 //// 325041 042 032 002 01
113830 2706N 08717W 8433 01502 //// +167 //// 326043 044 030 002 01
113900 2705N 08718W 8429 01511 //// +171 //// 322043 044 029 001 01
113930 2704N 08719W 8429 01511 //// +170 //// 319042 044 029 001 01
$$
;

[JonathanBelles]

Well as I said its hard to make a middle ground really and instead they chose a track that would keep it over the Gulf for as long as possible. Once they feel more confident in the models the track speed will increase and a landfall will be shown.

I would have to disagree. Initially they should have went with La. which was right down the middle and could have easily adjusted East or WEst. And instead of fully correcting they are now stair stepping.

In many cases you can split the difference, but for Debby the difference was 180 degrees. Their track would have been due north to split the two camps down the middle, and it would have been very close to the xtrp. Splitting the two camps puts you in a place where you are always going to be wrong, they chose the more likely with what they had. Either way they would have had to stair step. I also way to say that there must be shift to shift consistency so that if the models shift again, they won't be caught with their pants down so to speak. It also helps the public adjust.

[Dave]

COC @ 994 MBS

000
URNT12 KNHC 241130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/11:19:40Z
B. 27 deg 52 min N
086 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1371 m
D. 38 kt
E. 039 deg 60 nm
F. 119 deg 32 kt
G. 039 deg 60 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 18 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NE QUAD 11:00:00Z
;

[gulf701]

If anyone is interested, this is our fire station weather station address. We are located between Port St. Joe and Mexico Beach. Looks like we might be in line for a lot of rain.

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/gulfbeaches/

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,the 5 AM advisory is not posted so here it is.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 87.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING
VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
SEVERAL HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE MOST RECENT HWRF GUIDANCE...AND IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY CHANGE.

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.3N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241130
XXAA 74118 99279 70865 08176 99994 26613 25001 00550 ///// /////
92638 23002 16004 85376 ///// 20004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81119
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2786N08649W 1121 MBL WND 17005 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17
504 994843 WL150 18503 084 REL 2786N08649W 111943 SPG 2786N08649W
112126 =
XXBB 74118 99279 70865 08176 00994 26613 11864 20603
21212 00994 25001 11967 16507 22898 18501 33854 19004 44843 21504
31313 09608 81119
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2786N08649W 1121 MBL WND 17005 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17
504 994843 WL150 18503 084 REL 2786N08649W 111943 SPG 2786N08649W
112126 =
;

[tolakram]

What a blown forecast by NHC. Really bothers me that they went all in with one model. IT further bothers me that they didn't just make a full change instead of trying to stair step. Most of the people I know who don't track just looked at the map and said 'oh, it's going to Texas'. Hope the NHC learns from this. Fortunately for us in Florida it wasn't a Hurricane. We are however getting pounded with rain.

Blown forecast? One Model? Learns from this? I have linked to the model verification reports from the NHC earlier in this thread, you can find it at the NHC page. Don't get carried away with the blown forecast accusation.

[ronjon]

I think the NHC should just shown a stall south of La and emphasied until they had more solid track guidance that would be the initial track. I've seen them do this many times before. Sure, it's punting but with good reason. Now it'll take several 6 hr cycles to bend it back east if they have to.

[caneman]

Well as I said its hard to make a middle ground really and instead they chose a track that would keep it over the Gulf for as long as possible. Once they feel more confident in the models the track speed will increase and a landfall will be shown.

I would have to disagree. Initially they should have went with La. which was right down the middle and could have easily adjusted East or WEst. And instead of fully correcting they are now stair stepping.

In many cases you can split the difference, but for Debby the difference was 180 degrees. Their track would have been due north to split the two camps down the middle, and it would have been very close to the xtrp. Splitting the two camps puts you in a place where you are always going to be wrong, they chose the more likely with what they had. Either way they would have had to stair step. I also way to say that there must be shift to shift consistency so that if the models shift again, they won't be caught with their pants down so to speak. It also helps the public adjust.

Hey, I see your local here :0 Well, we may have to agree to disagree then. We're heading out on vacation today and the family I am going with thinks that it is heading to Texas based on the cone they saw on T.V.. Fortunately I'm on top of tracking this thing so we could be better prepared. NOt a huge wind event for now so didn't need to do a lot of prep with house and all but had it been a hurricane it would have been a different story.

[jlauderdal]

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[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241147
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 13 20120624
114000 2702N 08720W 8429 01514 //// +174 //// 319040 041 027 001 01
114030 2701N 08722W 8428 01516 //// +174 //// 322040 040 025 002 01
114100 2700N 08723W 8430 01516 //// +171 //// 321039 040 024 002 01
114130 2659N 08724W 8429 01517 //// +168 //// 317035 037 023 002 01
114200 2658N 08726W 8428 01520 //// +165 //// 322034 035 023 002 01
114230 2656N 08727W 8428 01520 //// +161 //// 326036 036 022 002 01
114300 2655N 08728W 8433 01516 //// +163 //// 326034 036 022 002 01
114330 2654N 08729W 8429 01522 //// +154 //// 326034 035 022 003 01
114400 2653N 08731W 8432 01520 //// +164 //// 318031 034 024 002 01
114430 2651N 08732W 8429 01524 //// +169 //// 317029 031 020 001 01
114500 2650N 08733W 8429 01524 //// +166 //// 323029 029 018 002 01
114530 2649N 08735W 8430 01525 //// +165 //// 323027 029 023 000 01
114600 2648N 08736W 8430 01525 //// +163 //// 320026 026 022 003 01
114630 2647N 08737W 8433 01524 //// +148 //// 314026 028 029 005 01
114700 2645N 08738W 8433 01527 //// +156 //// 317024 026 026 004 01
114730 2644N 08740W 8430 01528 //// +168 //// 314028 030 027 002 01
114800 2643N 08741W 8440 01519 //// +166 //// 322027 028 023 005 01
114830 2642N 08742W 8428 01533 //// +162 //// 316026 027 025 004 01
114900 2641N 08744W 8434 01525 //// +163 //// 318026 027 024 005 01
114930 2639N 08745W 8432 01529 //// +167 //// 323028 029 024 001 01
$$

[KWT]

I think the NHC should just shown a stall south of La and emphasied until they had more solid track guidance that would be the initial track. I've seen them do this many times before. Sure, it's punting but with good reason. Now it'll take several 6 hr cycles to bend it back east if they have to.

They did punt, there track was MUCH slower than any other model for a good reason adthey didn't show any hint of a landfall because of the lack of confidence. The ECM had landfall at 108hrs yesterday, at that point the NHC track was still easily several hundred miles in the Gulf.

Still lets wait and see what the 12z suite shows, you never know it may yet shift back westwards, we can't tell!

[cycloneye]

Recon found lower pressure than the 998 mbs at 5 AM advisory. Is down to 994mbs.

[KWT]

Some bad flooding down there, not all that surprising when you have so much tropical moisture surging up from the Gulf of Mexico.

[SoupBone]

What a crazy morning to wake up to. She looks somewhat ragged on radar. I wonder how much more east they will shift the track. Her track will surely make a difference in Louisiana's wide range of potential conditions.

Yep quite a wide rage of options, you could have anything from nice dry conditions to a hurricane knocking on your door!!

Just a wait and see game. Won't be much movement at all though today...

It will catch some Louisiana residents off guard considering how close this could come to being a problem versus normal summer conditions. I hope folks have been making sure their storm plans are up to date.